Modelling Australian land use competition and ecosystem services with food price feedbacks at high spatial resolution

In a globalised world, land use change outlooks are influenced by both locally heterogeneous land attributes and world markets. We demonstrate the importance of high resolution land heterogeneity representation in understanding local impacts of future global scenarios with carbon markets and land competition influencing food prices. A methodologically unique Australian continental model is presented with bottom-up parcel scale granularity in land use change, food, carbon, water, and biodiversity ecosystem service supply determination, and partial equilibrium food price impacts of land competition. We show that food price feedbacks produce modest aggregate national land use and ecosystem service supply changes. However, high resolution results show amplified land use change and ecosystem service impact in some places and muted impacts in other areas relative to national averages. We conclude that fine granularity modelling of geographic diversity produces local land use change and ecosystem service impact insights not discernible with other approaches.     

A Bayesian sensitivity analysis applied to an Agent-based model of bird population response to landscape change

Agricultural land management has important impacts on land use and vegetation that can rapidly induce ecosystem change. Birds are often used as indicators of such impacts of landscape change on ecosystems. However, predicting the response of birds to changes in their environment is an ongoing challenge. Agent-based models (ABMs) have the potential to provide useful insights but have not been widely used in such studies to date. This paper illustrates the use of agent-based modelling for policy decision-making, using the case study of the impacts of the removal of set-aside land on Skylark populations in Denmark.In order to address the importance of critical interpretation of ABMs, we introduce a novel methodology with which to analyze the sensitivity of an ABM, Bayesian Analysis of Computer Code Outputs (BACCO). BACCO constructs an emulator of the model in order to provide a rapid and thorough sensitivity analysis. This allows us to identify input parameters in the model that require more rigorous parameterization, as some parameters are highly sensitive and are found to produce spurious results when varied even a small amount.     

SimilarityExplorer: A Visual Inter‐Comparison Tool for Multifaceted Climate Data

Inter‐comparison and similarity analysis to gauge consensus among multiple simulation models is a critical visualization problem for understanding climate change patterns. Climate models, specifically, Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBM) represent time and space variable ecosystem processes, like, simulations of photosynthesis and respiration, using algorithms and driving variables such as climate and land use. While it is widely accepted that interactive visualization can enable scientists to better explore model similarity from different perspectives and different granularity of space and time, currently there is a lack of such visualization tools. In this paper we present three main contributions. First, we propose a domain characterization for the TBM community by systematically defining the domain‐specific intents for analyzing model similarity and characterizing the different facets of the data. Second, we define a classification scheme for combining visualization tasks and multiple facets of climate model data in one integrated framework, which can be leveraged for translating the tasks into the visualization design. Finally, we present SimilarityExplorer, an exploratory visualization tool that facilitates similarity comparison tasks across both space and time through a set of coordinated multiple views. We present two case studies from three climate scientists, who used our tool for a month for gaining scientific insights into model similarity. Their experience and results validate the effectiveness of our tool.     

Land use models in complex societal problem solving: Plug and play or networking?

Land use systems research addresses issues, such as agricultural policy making, land use planning and integrated water management, that often involve multiple stakeholders. Several potential roles for land use models in multi-stakeholder situations have been identified, such as: a heuristic role, improving understanding; a symbolic role, putting an issue on the political agenda; and a relational role, creating a community. This paper addresses the question: “Which kind of arrangements, conditions, model qualities or other factors harness land use modelling to perform those roles?” Our approach consisted of two components: the development of a conceptual framework of the interactions between scientist, model, other non-human entities and societal stakeholders; and the analysis of three cases of linking land use modelling to problem solving in a multi-stakeholder context. The conceptual framework suggests that a land use model can only perform a role in problem solving when it is enrolled in the interactions by one or more of the stakeholders. It then gets a different status because it becomes part of the interactions, is contextualized and its role is being defined. Here, contextualization encompasses the explication of values and aspirations of the modeller(s), fitting to a local context and interpretation of model work in relation to other knowledge sources. Based on this understanding, our case analysis addressed three questions. The first question was: “What role(s) did the model play in the course of the interactions?” The analysis revealed that the studied land use models performed heuristic roles in combination with at least one other role. In two cases, the model had a symbolic role in addition to its heuristic role. Also in two cases a relational role was found, i.e. the model fostered network building around the land use issue at stake. The second question was: “How did the model become part of the interactions in the network?” We found that in all three cases substantial investments were made to enrol and contextualize the land use model concerned and maintain relations with relevant stakeholders. The third question was: “Which model qualities contributed to the actual role(s) of the model?” The comparative analysis of the case studies suggests that land use models were appreciated for their characteristic system research features, i.e. the study of interactions between components and their integrative capacity.     

An integrated modelling approach for the assessment of land use change effects on wastewater infrastructures

The simulation of sewage systems and wastewater treatment plants is strategic for assessing the effect of new dwellings on the existing water facilities. This paper introduces an integrated framework made by a land use change model, a sewage system simulator, and a wastewater treatment plant simulator. This is a complex system since each element is characterized by different dynamics. The land use change model simulates the annual expansion of an urban area according to planners’ guidelines; the sewage system simulator investigates the response of the drainage system to the expansion. The wastewater treatment plant is simulated in order to assess the impact of the new outflows on the existing plant. The three models are integrated into a Simulink model. Two components of the developed framework are based on models well established in literature. The proposed framework is tested on a simple case study of a small town located in south west of Scotland.     

Modelling systemic change in coupled socio-environmental systems

Abrupt systemic changes in ecological and socio-economic systems are a regular occurrence. While there has been much attention to studying systemic changes primarily in ecology as well as in economics, the attempts to do so for coupled socio-environmental systems are rarer. This paper bridges the gap by reviewing how models can be instrumental in exploring significant, fundamental changes in such systems. The history of modelling systemic change in various disciplines contains a range of definitions and approaches. Even so, most of these efforts share some common challenges within the modelling context. We propose a framework drawing these challenges together, and use it to discuss the articles in this thematic issue on modelling systemic change in coupled social and environmental systems. The differing approaches used highlight that modelling systemic change is an area of endeavour that would benefit from greater synergies between the various disciplines concerned with systemic change.     

openModeller: a generic approach to species’ potential distribution modelling

Species’ potential distribution modelling is the process of building a representation of the fundamental ecological requirements for a species and extrapolating these requirements into a geographical region. The importance of being able to predict the distribution of species is currently highlighted by issues like global climate change, public health problems caused by disease vectors, anthropogenic impacts that can lead to massive species extinction, among other challenges. There are several computational approaches that can be used to generate potential distribution models, each achieving optimal results under different conditions. However, the existing software packages available for this purpose typically implement a single algorithm, and each software package presents a new learning curve to the user. Whenever new software is developed for species’ potential distribution modelling, significant duplication of effort results because many feature requirements are shared between the different packages. Additionally, data preparation and comparison between algorithms becomes difficult when using separate software applications, since each application has different data input and output capabilities. This paper describes a generic approach for building a single computing framework capable of handling different data formats and multiple algorithms that can be used in potential distribution modelling. The ideas described in this paper have been implemented in a free and open source software package called openModeller. The main concepts of species’ potential distribution modelling are also explained and an example use case illustrates potential distribution maps generated by the framework.     

Reusability of model components for environmental simulation – Case studies for integrated coastal zone management

Model constructs in environmental models are seldom reused beyond the project lifetime or in other modelling studies. A library of reusable model components could facilitate the maintenance of existing models and make the design of new models more efficient. Although component-based design is the common standard in software engineering and manufacturing few examples are yet found in environmental science. The multi-disciplinary project SPICOSA used a common, component-based simulation framework for environmental modelling, based on 18 case studies through Europe. The development of high-quality model components with potential for reuse turned out to be a challenge despite of the guidelines and tutorial examples provided. Well-designed components are of appropriate granularity, encapsulated, with a limited use of connectors and proper data handling. Ultimately, the success of a model library depends on a sufficient set of quality components with complementary functionalities, a framework for quality control, and support of the environmental modelling community.     

A framework of experimental transiogram modelling for Markov chain geostatistical simulation of landscape categories

Experimental transiogram modelling, especially joint modelling, is crucial for Markov chain random field (MCRF) simulation of categorical spatial variables with multiple classes. Experimental transiogram estimation of landscape categorical variables in a non-visual context and manual model fitting are tedious and time-consuming tasks if the number of classes is large. This study presented a framework which integrated the linear interpolation method and the mathematical model fitting method for transiogram joint modelling to facilitate the whole modelling procedure. The framework was developed as a tool, entitled TGRAM. The tool provides several advanced characteristics and functions which greatly improve the efficiency of transiogram joint modelling. Two case studies were provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the tool. The modelling results can directly provide parameters (i.e., transition probability values at continuous lags in the required pixel size) for further MCRF simulations in related research areas, such as land cover/land use classification, soil and lithofacies mapping, and urban growth detection.     

Combining farm and regional level modelling for Integrated Resource Management in East and South-east Asia

Currently, in many of the highly productive lowland areas of East and South-east Asia a trend to further intensification and diversification of agricultural land use can be observed. Growing economies and urbanization also increase the claims on land and water by non-agricultural uses. As a result, decisions related to the management and planning of scarce resources become increasingly complex. Technological innovations at the field/farm level are necessary but not sufficient – changes in resource use at regional scale will also be essential. To support decision-making in such situations, we advocate a multi-scale modelling approach embedded in a sound participatory process. To this end, the Integrated Resource Management and Land use Analysis (IRMLA) Project is developing an analytical framework and methods for resource use analysis and planning, for four sites in Asia. In the envisaged multi-scale approach, integration of results from field, farm, district and provincial level analysis is based on interactive multiple goal linear programming (IMGLP), farm household modelling (FHM), production ecological concepts and participatory techniques. The approach comprises the following steps: (i) inventory/quantification of current land use systems, resource availability, management practices and policy views, (ii) analysis of alternative, innovative land use systems/technologies, (iii) exploration of the opportunities and limitations to change resource use at regional scale under alternative future scenarios, (iv) modelling decision behaviour of farmers and identification of feasible policy interventions, and (v) synthesis of results from farm to regional level for negotiation of the most promising options by a stakeholder platform. In the current paper, the operationalisation of dual-scale analysis is illustrated by the outputs (development scenarios, promising policy measures and innovative production systems) from various component models for the case study Ilocos Norte, Philippines. An approach is discussed for the integration of results from the different model components at two different decision making levels (farm and province).     

Integrating hydrology,hydraulics and ecological response into a flexible approach to the determination of environmental water requirements for rivers

There are many different approaches to environmental water requirement (EWR) determinations that have been reported in the international literature. Many of these focus on different aspects of the problem, while few of them consider all of the issues associated with the eventual implementation of EWR as part of integrated water management. It is also necessary to recognize that there is a wide range of different types and resolution of information available in different parts of the world. This paper presents an integrated framework that has been in use in South Africa for several years and which is based on integrating the impacts of changing flow regimes on different ecosystem response components through indices of ‘stress’ measured on a common scale (0–10). Software to support its implementation has been included as part of an existing hydrological modelling framework package that includes a GIS interface and database management procedures. The framework is flexible enough to be used with different approaches to analyzing ecosystem responses, ranging from complex hydraulic habitat assessments to the interpretation of expert opinion and therefore should be widely applicable. The framework can also be used to design a modified flow regime for a given set of ecological objectives, or it can be applied to assess scenarios of flow regimes based on a range of possible future water management options. The paper explains the approach, provides some illustrations of its application and discusses some of the issues associated with its more widespread use.     

Reasoning with direction and rate of change in vegetation state transition modelling

Better integration in land planning and management can be supported through the use of suitable model-based tools. Vegetation state transition models have been noted as being useful in this context, providing a simple, useful means of capturing available ecological knowledge. We describe a simple ‘proof of concept’ rule-based system developed to contribute methodologically to management-oriented modelling of vegetated landscapes. The system is based upon a clear separation of direction from rate of change and the use of a general temporal reasoning system, a feature that facilitates modelling of situations where environmental change occurs causing an increase or decrease in rate without affecting direction of vegetation change. To ease model development and use the system represents vegetation dynamics in a way that has a close correspondence to the structure of understanding communicated by vegetation ecologists. A test model is described and run under different conditions to demonstrate the system. The results show that although the rule-based system and in particular the temporal reasoning system used operate successfully, there are a number of deficiencies in the modelling system as currently implemented. Future development possibilities are detailed along with a broader discussion regarding the needs of management-oriented modelling and the utility of state transition approaches.     

A spatially distributed risk screening tool to assess climate and land use change impacts on water-related ecosystem services

To support the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD), and as part of a tiered approach to prioritise detailed modelling, a high-level screening methodology has been developed to assess the vulnerability of water-related ecosystem services (ES) to future change. The approach incorporates a range of spatially distributed scenarios of land use and climate, which are used as inputs to a qualitative risk assessment model underpinned by expert opinion. The method makes use of widely available datasets and provides a structured way of capturing and “codifying” expert knowledge, as well as for assessing the degree of consensus between different expert groups. The range of model output reflects uncertainty in both the expert-derived assumptions and the climate & land use simulations considered. The approach has been developed in collaboration with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and applied in Scotland to support the second cycle of River Basin Management Planning.     

Object-oriented modelling for spacecraft dynamics: Tools and applications

The development process for spacecraft control systems relies heavily on modelling and simulation tools for spacecraft dynamics. For this reason, there is an increasing need for adequate design tools in order to cope efficiently with tightening budgets for space missions. The paper discusses the main issues related to the modelling and simulation of satellite dynamics for control purposes, and then presents an object-oriented modelling framework, implemented as a Modelica library. The proposed approach allows a unified approach to a range of problems spanning from initial mission design and actuator sizing phases, down to detailed closed-loop simulation of the control system, including realistic models of sensors and actuators. It also promotes the reuse of modelling knowledge among similar missions, thus minimizing the design effort for any new project. The proposed framework and the Modelica library are demonstrated by several illustrative case studies.