BP神经网络在供应链管理绩效指标评价中的应用研究

依据平衡记分法原理,建立供应链管理绩效评价的指标体系;依据BP神经网络原理,建立用于企业供应链管理绩效指标评价的BP神经网络评价模型,利用该模型对上海某动力设备有限公司的供应链绩效指标进行了评价,同时探讨了BP神经网络在供应链绩效指标评价中的特点和适用性.     

绿色供应链绩效评价的模型研究

分析了传统供应链相对于绿色供应链绩效评价的不足之处,针对绿色供应链管理的特征,给出了绿色供应链管理绩效的影响因素.借鉴供应链绩效评价指标和绿色环保指标,运用专家调查法构建了由五个一级指标:账务价值、客户服务、成本费用、业务流程和环境绩效构成的绿色供应链绩效评价的指标体系.在此基础上,运用多级指标的模糊综合评价法,建立了指标体系的评价模型,该模型较准确、客观地度量了绿色供应链的整体绩效,论文通过实例验证了该评估模型的有效性和正确性.     

突发事件影响的供应链系统动态仿真

为了研究突发事件对供应链绩效的长期效应,基于系统动力学构建了传统供应链模型、渠道库存控制供应链模型及供应商管理库存供应链模型.以包含一个制造商和一个供应商的二级供应链为研究对象,基于对供应链模型的仿真实验获取了供应链总库存和需求短缺量等绩效指标在无突变风险、生产突变风险和运输突变风险三种情境下的原始数据,通过对供应链绩...     

基于BSC和SD仿真的供应链绩效评价

成本和服务水平是供应链绩效评价申具有悖反关系的指标.提出了基于平衡计分卡(BSC)和系统动力学(SD)仿真的供应链绩效评价方法,建立了供应链成本与服务水平的数学模型.利用BSC和战略图界定供应链结构及其边界,建立供应链系统模型;由供应链模型构建SD仿真流图和供应链绩效指标的SD方程;通过SD仿真和参数调整平衡成本与服务水平之间的关系,实现供应链绩效的优化.以生产一分销子系统为例,验证方法的有效性.     

基于供应链的零售商绩效评价体系研究

系统地分析了零售商在供应链中的地位和作用，构建了一套基于供应链的零售商绩效评价体系，该体系包括零售商服务绩效和内部绩效两大部分共23个指标，并对各项指标进行了量化研究，在此基础上，探讨了绩效评价体系的实施步骤与方法。     

供应链中长鞭效应的理论分析与研究

供应链管理是21世纪企业适应全球竞争的有效途径.要提高自身的市场章争力,企业需要从整体出发考虑供应链的协调运作情况,促使供应链绩效量大化.而长鞭效应是供应链实际运作中出现的一个主要问题,它会造成库存增加、信息延迟、顾客满意度降低等不良后果,降低供应链绩效,使供应链失调.首先分析长鞭效应带来的严重后果并全面讨论导致长鞭效应发生的各种原因,以此为基础提出弱化长鞭效应的对策,从而促进供应链协调和绩效最大化.     

基于制造延迟的VMI模型的仿真研究

在供应链延迟策略和供应商管理库存(VMI)策略研究的基础上,首先建立了供应链延迟策略下的仿真模型,然后再引入供应商管理库存策略,通过计算机仿真,探讨了供应商管理库存策略实施前后供应链绩效的变化情况.研究结果表明,与单纯的延迟策略相比,延迟与供应商库存相结合的策略能明显改善供应链的绩效.     

基于供应链的企业库存成因及优化控制研究（二）

基于企业全面库存的管理思想,对库存成本、库存控制、库存系统优化等管理经验与前人研究成果进行分析,借鉴先进企业的库存管理理念和方法,以大型制造企业为核心研究对象,在集供应商、制造商、经销商为一体的供应链作为研究框架的基础上,运用供应链系统理论作为研究方法,分析了库存管理现状、影响因素及产生原因,从优化生产管理、整合企业内部供应链和跨企业供应链的角度提出了库存控制的相应对策,以实现全面库存优化,提高经营效益.     

供应商管理库存的供应链管理绩效模型

使用多目标规划的方法描述了供应链及其成员的运作性能、供应链的协调运作、供应链成员的利润等,建立了由一个制造商和一个供应商构成的多产品、多阶段供应商管理库存的供应链管理绩效模型;通过应用算例的研究验证了模型的有效性和可行性;并与未实行供应商管理库存的供应链管理绩效模型进行比较,验证了供应商管理库存能够提高供应链的绩效.     

供应链虚拟库存决策的仿真

在供应链延迟策略和供应商管理库存（VMI）策略研究的基础上,建立了供应链延迟策略下的仿真模型,再引入虚拟库存,通过计算机仿真,探讨了虚拟库存实施前后供应链绩效的变化情况。研究结果表明,与一般的供应商管理库存相比,虚拟库存的引入使得供应链总成本和企业的服务水平均有所增加。     

A theory of material requirements planning (MRP): an empirical methodology to reduce uncertainty in MRP systems

This paper presents a theoretical MRP? model which includes both demand and supply uncertainties from quantity and timing variations. The model suggests empirical methodologies to estimate the variances of final outputs and components for estimates of safety stock requirements to reduce uncertainty. The paper suggests methodology for safety stock estimates to alleviate demand uncertainty for trade-to-stock organizations and made-to-order organizations. The paper also suggests methodologies to estimate safety stock for the production systems to alleviate supply uncertainty.     

供应链中牛鞭效应的控制与弱化研究

为了弱化供应链中的牛鞭效应,本文剖析了其危害及形成机理,指出供应链的系统属性和管理运作两方面因素构成了牛鞭效应产生的主要原因,进而着眼于供应链的整体竞争力,有针对性地提出了控制牛鞭效应的系列策略,即强化战略协作及信息共享,消减供应链级数,开展敏捷管理,减少订货批量,控制安全库存,平衡库存责任和弱化最终需求的变异性.     

Safety stock placement problem in capacitated supply chains

Today's highly competitive business environment forces supply chain managers to maintain high service levels while keeping inventory-related costs as low as possible. Therefore, placing the right amount of safety stock at the right places in the supply chain is an important aspect of effective inventory management. This safety stock placement problem, for which some solution strategies have been proposed in the case of uncapacitated supply chains, becomes much more complicated when, in addition to the variability of the demand, capacity constraints also come into play. In this paper we propose a model to locate safety stocks in a capacitated supply chain with the objective of maintaining the required service level. The underlying relationships linking excess capacity, demand variability, and service levels are analysed to gain deeper understanding of the safety stock placement problem in capacitated supply chains. Based on these relationships a solution approach for the problem is proposed and is tested with Monte Carlo simulation.     

Analyzing the effect of inventory policies on the nonstationary performance with transfer functions

In this paper we apply transfer function methods to analyze the performance of supply chains in response to nonstationary demand and, in particular, we investigate how various inventory policies and demand forecasting parameters affect supply chain responsiveness. In a single-echelon inventory system we investigate the performance of a common base stock policy. Specifically, we describe the order and inventory trajectories using discrete transfer functions, and we derive closed-form analytical expressions for the transient behavior in response to a step change in demand. We introduce performance measures commonly used to analyze nonstationary performance and derive closed-form expressions for these measures. Next, we study the performance of a two-echelon supply chain under installation stock and echelon stock policies. We explicate the performance tradeoff in response to stationary versus nonstationary demand, and show that the transient response of orders and inventory levels can be either underdamped or overdamped depending on the exponential smoothing parameter. We show that the echelon stock policy is more responsive than the installation stock policy when both policies have similar stationary performances.     

极端灾害下基于智能楼宇分布式电源的配电系统负荷恢复力评估分析

作为一类重要的负荷侧资源,智能楼宇中广泛存在的各类分布式电源为极端灾害后电力系统的供电快速恢复及负荷转带提供了新的可能性。为此,提出一种针对智能楼宇负荷恢复力的综合评估框架,用于定量分析和计算极端灾害后智能楼宇末端存活分布式电源对配电系统中重要负荷的转带能力。在对智能楼宇内不同类型物理设备进行建模的基础上,重点考虑多能互补及能量耦合特性,首先,提出了电能转移量、热能转移量、冷能转移量3项定量评价指标,用于精确量化极端灾害后智能楼宇电源对系统负荷恢复的贡献。其次,在此基础上,通过综合利用随机混合整数规划方法,进一步提出了针对上述评价指标的具体计算方法。最后,以某一工业园区负荷为例,对所提评估框架进行有效性验证。仿真结果表明,所提方法在保证智能楼宇正常运行前提下可充分发掘智能楼宇的能源供应潜力,有效提升配电系统在极端灾害下的供能可靠性。     

An approach to establishing a method for calculating inventory

In periodic review inventory systems, inventory is classified into cycle stock and safety stock. Cycle stock is defined as inventory that absorbs differences between supply and demand frequencies. It can be calculated without deficiency or excess because a method has been established for ensuring that the minimum on-hand inventory during a periodic review is zero. Safety stock is defined as inventory that absorbs various differences between supply and demand. Unlike for cycle stock, a method for calculating safety stock without deficiency or excess remains to be established. An approach is proposed to establishing a method for calculating inventory in which inventory is classified on the basis of the holding purpose and the calculation factors indicate solutions. This approach was applied to inventory held to absorb, on the basis of fluctuations in demand, the difference in terms of time and quantity between supply and demand. Stock held for this purpose is referred to as ‘fluctuation stock’. The objective is to establish a method for calculating fluctuation stock so that the minimum on-hand inventory during a periodic review is zero and to clarify the relationship between fluctuation stock and safety stock.     

空分设备产品水平评价方法

简介了空分设备产品水平评价方法,制定了空分设备产品水平评价指标体系,详细介绍了评价程序、评价指标以及空分设备产品指数的详细计算方法。     

A quantitative and simulation model for managing sudden supply delay with fuzzy demand and safety stock

In this paper, a recovery model is developed for managing sudden supply delays that affect retailers’ economic order quantity model. For this, a mathematical model is developed that considers fuzzy demand and safety stock, and generates a recovery plan for a finite future period immediately after a sudden supply delay. An efficient heuristic solution is developed that generates the recovery plan after a sudden supply delay. An experiment with scenario-based analysis is conducted to test our heuristic and to analyse the results. To assess the quality and consistency of solutions, the performance of the proposed heuristic is compared with the performance of the generalised reduced gradient method, which is widely applied in constrained mathematical programming. A simulation model is also designed to bring the recovery model closer to real-world processes. Several numerical examples are presented and a sensitivity analysis is performed to demonstrate the effects of various parameters on the performance of the heuristic method. The results show that safety stock plays an important role in recovery from sudden supply delays, and there is a trade-off between backorder and lost sales costs in the recovery plan. With the help of the proposed model, supply chain decision-makers can make accurate and prompt decision regarding recovery plans in case of sudden supply delay.     

上市公司财务危机预警模型效果比较研究

以2002—2004年深沪两市首次被ST的79家上市公司为研究对象,同时用79家盈利公司作配对样本,选择32个财务指标进行了Wilcoxon符号平均秩检验以判断选取指标的适宜性.运用Fisher二类线性判别分析和二元逻辑回归,分别建立起上市公司财务危机前的3年预警模型.结果表明,用这两种方法建立的模型的预测准确性均超过80%,但这两种方法建立模型的预测效果存在一定的差异.