企业项目风险的模糊综合评价研究

运用模糊综合评价方法建立数学模型对企业项目进行风险分析,根据企业项目风险评价的特殊性,对企业项目风险进行系统评价,从而使企业达到识别风险、量化风险和制定有效的规避措施,为企业项目的风险评估提供一个较为科学的评价方法。     

知识管理视角下的项目风险管理过程与集成

项目风险的实质是缺乏预测未来不利事件的足够知识,这些知识包括知识的缺乏、误用、不确定性以及知识管理等方面.除了特定领域的专业知识外,项目风险的分析、评价、控制等本身也是一种特殊的知识.与以往基于过程控制的项目风险管理方法相比,基于知识的项目风险管理把引起风险的知识因素分析和应对风险的知识工作的成本估计引入到通用的项目风险管理过程中来,以实现组织知识管理与项目风险管理的有效集成.     

面向航空项目的风险识别技术研究

风险识别是项目风险管理的关键技术之一,直接影响风险管理中的风险估测、风险评价和选择风险应对措施等技术。分析了航空项目风险的主要来源;结合我国航空项目管理中风险识别的特点,运用核对表并改进鱼刺图对航空项目进行风险识别;提出了面向航空项目的风险识别新技术——现象一因子模型。本技术为航空项目高效、准确地识别项目风险奠定了基础。同时,分析了风险识别技术在航空项目风险管理中的具体应用,初步解决了航空项目中的风险识别问题。     

航空科研项目风险管理中层次分析法的应用

随着我国经济的快速发展,国家对于航空工业的投入也越来越大,发展我国具有自主知识产权的航空器是国家现阶段以及未来很长一段时间都需要关注的问题。但是,由于航空项目研究具有较大的不确定性,因此,需要对航空项目中所面临的风险进行分析并管理。但是,现今我国所具有的航空项目风险管理方法已经无法适应航空项目的快速发展,做好航空项目的风险管理需要采用新的航空项目风险管理分析法来应对现今航空项目的快速发展。基于航空项目所具有的特点,可以采用一种基于模糊层次的分析法来对航空项目的风险进行管理。此种方法通过对航空项目所面临的风险因素进行识别、分类以及进行分层次结构的建模、模糊判断矩阵的构造以及排序等的方法步骤,针对航空项目风险管理中所面临的两个关键予以初步的解决。     

基于模糊集与灰色关联的改进FMEA方法

在对传统FMEA研究的基础上,提出了基于模糊集理论和灰色关联理论的改进FMEA.该方法首先结合模糊集理论建立评价失效模式的模糊语言术语集和对应的模糊数,并由FMEA小组对各种失效模式做出评价,然后利用灰色关联理论计算各种失效模式的关联度,通过排序来确定失效模式的风险顺序.     

基于约束理论的动态联盟业务流程再造分析

为了解决动态联盟管理与控制的困难和风险,提高动态联盟的效率以及核心竞争力,针对动态联盟进行企业流程再造是一种重要方式.基于约束理论并运用模糊评价方式,建立了动态联盟流程再造分析体系,提出了确定瓶颈的层次化的模糊综合评价算法.通过对瓶颈的追踪和确认,为进一步的流程再造提供方向,从而实现动态联盟绩效的改进.通过实例对研究进行了验证.     

海洋工程项目管理中的风险分析研究

本文针对海洋工程项目管理中的风险分析研究现状及发展趋势,进行了风险分析的模型建立、预测等研究。通过引进模糊计算的理论,更加精确的计算项目的风险数值,建立了项目风险事件的发生概率和影响程度的评价体系及标准。通过模糊函数的比较,将专家意见进行量化,总结、归纳出一套行之有效的风险概率值的计算方法。将整体项目进行划分,分为组织机构及人员管理水平、建造与安装管理水平、采购及设计全过程风险识别,在以上内容基础上建立起新的海洋工程项目管理的风险分析模式。     

基于AHP-Fuzzy的工程建筑设计风险综合评价

  为综合分析、评价工程建筑设计的技术风险和质量风险,采用专家调查法,全面调查分析了工程建筑设计中会遇到的涉及安全、公共利益等各种风险因素.根据调查结果,采用主观打分法对各风险因素对工程质量安全和工程使用功能的重要程度和风险程度进行了评价.采用AHP方法,计算了各风险因素对工程综合影响的相对重要性权重,并进行了排序.基于AHP评价结果,采用模糊评价法对各风险因素进行了模糊综合评价.综合分析三种评价结果,最终得出建筑设计风险总体上属于中等偏低的水平,并给出建筑设计中各风险因素的重要程度,从而为建筑设计人员提供启示和指导.     

一种基于模糊熵的油田经营风险评价法

为了规避油田经营潜在风险,本文定义了模糊隶属函数对风险进行定量划分,通过有效结合Delphi法、ANN法和概率法对油田经营风险进行评价,形成了一种新的基于模糊熵加权的油田经营风险评价法,该方法不仅考虑到油田专家现场经验和神经网络法的高预测精度特性,而且体现了风险指标自身的性质;针对风险评价方法的特点,通过实际油田区块应用,验证该方法的可行性、有效性及高风险评价精度.     

模糊集理论与灰色关联理论的FMEA方法

在对传统FMEA研究的基础上,提出了基于模糊集理论和灰色关联理论的FMEA方法.结合模糊集理论建立评价失效模式的模糊语言术语集和模糊数,对各种失效模式进行评价,利用灰色关联理论计算各种失效模式的关联度,通过排序来确定失效模式的风险顺序.该方法克服了传统FMEA的缺陷,提高了FMEA应用的准确性和可靠性.     

The development of a decision support framework for a quantitative risk assessment in multimodal green logistics: an empirical study

The objective of this research was to develop a decision support framework (DSF) to assess quantitative risk in multimodal green logistics. This risk assessment is the combination of a number of models, the failure mode and effects analysis, the risk contour plot, the quantitative risk assessment, the analytic hierarchy process and the data envelopment analysis which can support a user to perform risk assessment in various decisions. The contribution of this research is that the risk assessment model can generate an optimal green logistics route in accordance with weight from the user. The highlight of this DSF is that the quantitative assessment model can reduce bias on risk assessment of logistics route. An in-depth case study, recommendations, limitations and further research are also provided.     

A combined fuzzy DEMATEL and cloud model approach for risk assessment in process industries to improve system reliability

Decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) analysis is an effective and comprehensive method for identifying accident factors and converting the relationships among them into a visual structural model. Traditionally, the mean value method is adopted to summarize the initial direct-relation matrix, but it ignores the errors caused by differences in expert knowledge. In addition, a single qualitative risk assessment may not be sufficiently comprehensive and persuasive. The qualitative risk assessment results may not play a complete role in helping industrial plants carry out safety management. Therefore, this study proposes a quantitative risk assessment model based on the cloud model (CM) called the fuzzy DEMATEL-CM. An assessment index model is established by identifying the hazards associated with a converter steelmaking system. Subsequently, fuzzy DEMATEL analysis is applied to determine the relationships among the assessment indices and calculate their weights. Then, the CM is utilized to calculate the risk levels of the assessment indices and determine the comprehensive risk level. Finally, a case study is introduced to verify the practicability and validity of this model, and it is observed that the model has a certain superiority in solving uncertain problems. The quantitative risk assessment results are helpful for preventing accidents to improve the reliability of converter steelmaking plants.     

Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice.     

Development of a hybrid fresh food supply chain risk assessment model

Supply chain managers and scholars recognise the importance of managing supply chain risk, especially in fresh food supply chain due to the perishable nature and short life cycle of products. Supply chain risk management consists of supply chain risk assessment, risk evaluation and formulation and implementation of effective risk response strategies. The commonly adopted qualitative methods such as risk assessment matrix to determine the level of risk have limitations. This paper proposes a hybrid model comprising both fuzzy logic (FL) and hierarchical holographic modelling (HHM) techniques where risk is first identified by the HHM method and then assessed using both qualitative risk assessment model (named risk filtering, ranking and management Framework) and fuzzy-based risk assessment method (named FL approach). The risk assessment results by the two different approaches are compared, and the overall risk level of each risk is calculated using the Root Mean Square calculation before identifying response strategies. This novel approach takes advantage of the benefits of both techniques and offsets their drawbacks in certain aspects. A case study in a fresh food supply chain company has been conducted in order to validate the proposed integrated approach on the feasibility of its functionality in a real environment.     

基于多种风险因素的矸石山边坡风险评价

该研究应用可拓理论综合考虑影响矸石边坡稳定的8种风险指标,建立了一套新的矸石边坡稳定性风险评价模型。与传统可拓理论评价模型相比,新模型在可拓距计算方面进行改进,并采用主客观权重相结合的综合分析法对8种风险指标进行权重分析,降低了传统理论算法在边坡稳定性风险评价过程中的系统误差。选取王家岭矸石边坡为案例,经新的边坡稳定性风险评价模型得出,2020年7月7日?2020年8月14日的风险等级变量特征值由原有的1.284上升到2.263,风险等级由低风险上升至中低风险等级,实现了现场矸石山边坡风险的定量评价。通过多个矸石边坡案例应用研究,发现改进的稳定性风险评价模型所得风险等级变量特征可与现有的边坡稳定性评估技术结合使用,实现矿山边坡安全指标与风险指标的综合评价。此外,该方法可以分析现场的实时监测数据,为矿山边坡安全风险评价提供一种客观简便的分析方法,进而有效改变目前矿山边坡工程监测重采集、轻分析的现状。     

产品缺陷风险评价指标体系和方法研究

风险评价在产品缺陷判定领域的应用处于起步阶段,相关理论模型和评价方法都处于空白.本文根据事故隐患和缺陷定义,将缺陷定为产品的危险状态,属于一种事故隐患.基于缺陷与事故隐患的相似性,借鉴事故隐患风险评价思路,探讨缺陷事故的发生和发展过程,提出产品缺陷风险评价指标体系和方法,为缺陷产品风险评价应用提供理论支撑.     

基于概率的高层建筑地震需求模型与风险评估EI北大核心CSCD

提出了基于贝叶斯理论的地震风险评估方法,综合考虑了地震危险性模型、输入地震动记录、结构参数和需求模型的不确定性,并以云南大理地区1970年-2017年间的地震数据为研究基础进行了详细讨论。在传统基于概率地震危险性分析方法的基础上,提出了基于贝叶斯理论的地震危险性分析方法,通过贝叶斯更新准则,确定了地震概率模型中未知参数的后验概率分布;通过贝叶斯理论建立了基于概率的地震需求模型,并在易损性中考虑了需求模型认知不确定性的影响;以42层钢框架-RC核心筒建筑为例,开展了地震作用下的风险评估。研究表明:基于贝叶斯理论的地震危险性分析方法,能够获得更为合理的危险性模型;忽略需求模型中参数不确定性的影响,将错误估计结构的地震易损性;不同加载工况将对高层建筑的地震风险产生显著影响。提出的概率风险评估方法,提供了可以考虑固有不确定性和认知不确定性的有效途径,有助于推动高性能结构地震韧性评价和设计理论的发展。     

Fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of radioactive material railway transportation

Transportation of radioactive materials is obviously accompanied by a certain risk. A model for risk assessment of emergency situations and terrorist attacks may be useful for choosing possible routes and for comparing the various defence strategies. In particular, risk assessment is crucial for safe transportation of excess weapons-grade plutonium arising from the removal of plutonium from military employment. A fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of railway transportation has been developed taking into account the different natures of risk-affecting parameters (probabilistic and not probabilistic but fuzzy). Fuzzy set theory methods as well as standard methods of probability theory have been used for quantitative risk assessment. Information-preserving transformations are applied to realise the correct aggregation of probabilistic and fuzzy parameters. Estimations have also been made of the inhalation doses resulting from possible accidents during plutonium transportation. The obtained data show the scale of possible consequences that may arise from plutonium transportation accidents.     

Uncertainty quantification in dynamic system risk assessment: a new approach with randomness and fuzzy theory

Quantifying uncertainty during risk analysis has become an important part of effective decision-making and health risk assessment. However, most risk assessment studies struggle with uncertainty analysis and yet uncertainty with respect to model parameter values is of primary importance. Capturing uncertainty in risk assessment is vital in order to perform a sound risk analysis. In this paper, an approach to uncertainty analysis based on the fuzzy set theory and the Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. The question then arises as to how these two modes of representation of uncertainty can be combined for the purpose of estimating risk. The proposed method is applied to a propylene oxide polymerisation reactor. It takes into account both stochastic and epistemic uncertainties in the risk calculation. This study explores areas where random and fuzzy logic models may be applied to improve risk assessment in industrial plants with a dynamic system (change over time). It discusses the methodology and the process involved when using random and fuzzy logic systems for risk management.     

贝叶斯网络推理在信息系统安全风险评估中的应用

提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络推理的安全风险评估方法。从实际出发建立信息系统的贝叶斯网络模型，根据专家给出的先验信息，结合获得的证据信息，运用Pearl方法完成对模型的评估，给出在特定条件下模型的计算——线性推理算法。最后，以实例分析信息系统安全评估的实现过程，结果表明，该方法可行、有效。