Farm work related fatalities among adults in Victoria, Australia: the human cost of agriculture

The purpose of this study was to review the patterns of, and trends in, farm work related fatalities among adults in one Australian state for the period 1985-1996. Fatality data was provided by the Victorian Workcover Authority Health and Safety Division. Trends were determined using regression techniques assuming a Poisson error structure for annual fatality rates. Results showed an annual average of eight deaths. Males, and those 60 years and over, were over-represented, compared to persons employed. Tractor incidents were the most common type of fatality (72%), with tractor roll overs accounting for 61% of all tractor incidents. Non tractor fatalities included being hit by a falling object and transport incidents. Statistical trend analyses revealed a non significant decrease in the tractor roll over fatality rate, and significant increases in the all farm (P = 0.004) and non tractor fatality rates (P = 0.036). The 3 year moving average rate for non tractor farm fatalities has increased to the point where it exceeds that for tractor roll over fatalities, and is approaching that for all tractor fatalities. Changes within the agricultural industry, coupled with the ageing of the farm workforce, appear to placing Victorian farmers at increased risk of farm work related death.     

The effect of recent trends in vehicle design on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled,and their projected future relationship with vehicle mass

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT). The current NHTSA analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. LBNL's assessment of the analysis indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in the previous studies, and statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars.     

Do not blame the driver: A systems analysis of the causes of road freight crashes

Although many have advocated a systems approach in road transportation, this view has not meaningfully penetrated road safety research, practice or policy. In this study, a systems theory-based approach, Rasmussens’s (1997) risk management framework and associated Accimap technique, is applied to the analysis of road freight transportation crashes. Twenty-seven highway crash investigation reports were downloaded from the National Transport Safety Bureau website. Thematic analysis was used to identify the complex system of contributory factors, and relationships, identified within the reports. The Accimap technique was then used to represent the linkages and dependencies within and across system levels in the road freight transportation industry and to identify common factors and interactions across multiple crashes. The results demonstrate how a systems approach can increase knowledge in this safety critical domain, while the findings can be used to guide prevention efforts and the development of system-based investigation processes for the heavy vehicle industry. A research agenda for developing an investigation technique to better support the application of the Accimap technique by practitioners in road freight transportation industry is proposed.     

An approach to maintenance optimization where safety issues are important

The starting point for this paper is a traditional approach to maintenance optimization where an object function is used for optimizing maintenance intervals. The object function reflects maintenance cost, cost of loss of production/services, as well as safety costs, and is based on a classical cost–benefit analysis approach where a value of prevented fatality (VPF) is used to weight the importance of safety. However, the rationale for such an approach could be questioned. What is the meaning of such a VPF figure, and is it sufficient to reflect the importance of safety by calculating the expected fatality loss VPF and potential loss of lives (PLL) as being done in the cost–benefit analyses? Should the VPF be the same number for all type of accidents, or should it be increased in case of multiple fatality accidents to reflect gross accident aversion?In this paper, these issues are discussed. We conclude that we have to see beyond the expected values in situations with high safety impacts. A framework is presented which opens up for a broader decision basis, covering considerations on the potential for gross accidents, the type of uncertainties and lack of knowledge of important risk influencing factors. Decisions with a high safety impact are moved from the maintenance department to the “Safety Board” for a broader discussion. In this way, we avoid that the object function is used in a mechanical way to optimize the maintenance and important safety-related decisions are made implicit and outside the normal arena for safety decisions, e.g. outside the traditional “Safety Board”.A case study from the Norwegian railways is used to illustrate the discussions.     

Trends in tractor related fatalities among adults working on farms in Victoria,Australia, 1985–2010

Tractors are associated with more fatalities than any other piece of machinery in agriculture, with tractor rollovers being a frequent mechanism. This study examines tractor fatalities between 1985 and 2010 in Victoria, Australia, and examines the impact of the 1998 legislation mandating the retrofitting of rollover protection structures (ROPS). The data source was the Victorian WorkCover Authority to whom unintentional work placed deaths are reportable. During the study period, 121 tractor fatalities occurred, of which 55 were rollovers. Poisson regression modelling indicated a significant decline in rollover fatalities during this period of approximately 7% per annum (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.93, 95% CI 0.90–0.97), however there was no simple relationship between the introduction of the legislation and the fatality decrease. It is proposed that the impact of previous voluntary retrofitting initiatives, coupled with the existing requirement for ROPS on new tractors, may have increased ROPS fitment to a critical point prior to the final requirement for retrofitting, diluting the effect over a number of years so that it could not be detected using the statistical techniques that have been applied. An increased trend in run over fatalities was also found (IRR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.00–1.09) suggesting the need for research into interventions for this type of fatality, such as safe tractor access platforms.     

Double pair comparison--a new method to determine how occupant characteristics affect fatality risk in traffic crashes

A new method to determine how occupant characteristics affect fatality risk in traffic crashes is developed. The method, which uses data from the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS), focuses on two occupants, a "subject" occupant and an "other" occupant. The probabilities of a fatality to the subject occupant when that occupant has one of two characteristics are compared. The other occupant serves essentially a normalizing, or exposure estimating, role. The method uses only fatality frequency data--no external exposure information is required, and it is relatively free from uncertain assumptions. It has wide applicability; examples of potential applications include investigating car occupant fatality risk as a function of sex, age, alcohol use or motorcyclist fatality risk as a function of helmet use. The first application is to determining the effectiveness of safety belts in preventing car occupant fatalities, as described in the paper following this paper.     

US commercial air tour crashes, 2000–2011: Burden,fatal risk factors,and FIA Score validation

Introduction

This study provides new public health data concerning the US commercial air tour industry. Risk factors for fatality in air tour crashes were analyzed to determine the value of the FIA Score in predicting fatal outcomes.

Methods

Using the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and National Transportation Safety Board data, the incidence of commercial air tour crashes from 2000 through 2010 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes occurring from 2000 through 2011 were analyzed using regression methods. The FIA Score, Li and Baker's fatality risk index, was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Results

The industry-wide commercial air tour crash rate was 2.7 per 100,000 flight hours. The incidence rates of Part 91 and 135 commercial air tour crashes were 3.4 and 2.3 per 100,000 flight hours, respectively (relative risk [RR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–2.1, P = 0.015). Of the 152 air tour crashes that occurred from 2000 through 2011, 30 (20%) involved at least one fatality and, on average, 3.5 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with three major risk factors: fire (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.1, 95% CI 1.5–16.7, P = 0.008), instrument meteorological conditions (AOR 5.4, 95% CI 1.1–26.4, P = 0.038), and off-airport location (AOR 7.2, 95% CI 1.6–33.2, P = 0.011). The area under the FIA Score's ROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.88).

Discussion

Commercial air tour crash rates were high relative to similar commercial aviation operations. Disparities between Part 91 and 135 air tour crash rates reflect regulatory disparities that require FAA action. The FIA Score appeared to be a valid measurement of fatal risk in air tour crashes. The FIA should prioritize interventions that address the three major risk factors identified by this study.     

Estimating the effects of crash phase injury countermeasures—II : The fatality trend and its modification by countermeasures

The trend of automobile occupant fatalities from 1950 to 1968 was studied. The influence of such factors as vehicle age, improved doorlocks, small cars, speed, seat belt use, driver age, and the Interstate Highway System was estimated on the basis of past studies. The relation of 20 other factors to this trend was explored by regression analyses. No satisfactory representation of the trend could be achieved without including either new automobile registration data or the Index of Industrial Production in the independent variables. A hypothesis explaining this was proposed. The number of automobiles, by model year groups corresponding to the availability of crash phase countermeasures, involved in potentially fatal accidents, was projected to 1968. Applying the reduction in fatality risk to these figures, fatality trends with countermeasures are projected to 1980 and compared with a projection assuming no countermeasures.     

Do laboratory frontal crash test programs predict driver fatality risk? Evidence from within vehicle line variation in test ratings

A number of studies have examined whether the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) frontal crash test results reliably indicate the risk of fatality or injury in serious crashes. The conclusions of these studies are mixed. Generally, studies that examine crashes in the circumstances as close as possible to those of the laboratory test find that crash test results do predict real-world risk, but studies of crashes outside those specific circumstances find either no support for the predictive validity of crash test results or limited support with important inconsistencies. We provide a new test of the predictive validity of the crash test results using information from multiple crash tests within vehicle lines, thus controlling for systematic differences in driver behavior across vehicle lines. Among drivers of passenger cars, we find large, statistically significant differences in fatality risk for vehicles with one- to four-star NHTSA ratings versus a five-star rating. We also examine the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety's frontal offset crash test, though our sample of vehicle lines tested twice or more is considerably smaller than for NHTSA ratings. Our results also support the predictive validity of the frontal offset crash test results for passenger cars, but not for trucks.     

Driver fatalities versus car mass using a new exposure approach

A new approach to estimating exposure is presented and applied to determining relations between car mass and driver fatality likelihood. The new approach considers two groups of fatal crashes in the FARS files. The first group contains crashes in which car drivers are killed in single car crashes or in crashes with trucks. These are both examples of non-two car crashes. It is hypothesized that the likelihood of a car driver fatality in such crashes depends on car mass. The second group of fatal crashes contains crashes in which either pedestrians or motorcyclists are killed in crashes with cars. It is hypothesized that the likelihood of the pedestrian or motorcyclist being killed in such crashes is independent of the mass of the car. The new exposure approach implies that the ratio of the number of people killed in the mass dependent crash to those killed in the mass independent crash gives an estimate of how car mass affects the likelihood of a driver fatality. The approach further implies that the estimate obtained is an estimate of the physical effect of mass, essentially independent of driver behavior. It is found that the new exposure approach yields relationships between driver fatality likelihood and car mass that are more precise and consistent than can normally be obtained in accident research. The effects found, which are attributed to the physical properties of the vehicle, essentially independent of driver behavior, are larger (for example, a driver of a 900 kg car is 2.6 times as likely to be killed as is a driver of a 1800kg car) than those based on fatalities per car.     

An evaluation of failure criteria for matrix induced failure in composite materials

This paper reports on work being undertaken in the Cooperative Research Centre for Advanced Composite Structures Ltd. (CRC-ACS) to develop improved techniques for predicting the failure of composite materials. The procedures being investigated include a maximum strain criterion for fibre failure. For failure of the resin a new approach, which includes determination of the residual stresses due to manufacturing, is being trialed. This work closely parallels the new criteria proposed by Gosse and Hart-Smith [AIAA/CRC-ACS text on composite materials, submitted for publication] and we have subsequently replaced a simple stress criterion for matrix failure with their proposals based on strain invariants. The new procedures are applied to the failure of laminates in bolted joints with complex steered fibre patterns. Thermal residual stress was included to predict the matrix failure of T-section laminates under loads that open the angle between the flanges and the web. Here a transverse tension stress criterion was used.     

Application of classification algorithms for analysis of road safety risk factor dependencies

Transportation continues to be an integral part of modern life, and the importance of road traffic safety cannot be overstated. Consequently, recent road traffic safety studies have focused on analysis of risk factors that impact fatality and injury level (severity) of traffic accidents. While some of the risk factors, such as drug use and drinking, are widely known to affect severity, an accurate modeling of their influences is still an open research topic. Furthermore, there are innumerable risk factors that are waiting to be discovered or analyzed. A promising approach is to investigate historical traffic accident data that have been collected in the past decades. This study inspects traffic accident reports that have been accumulated by the California Highway Patrol (CHP) since 1973 for which each accident report contains around 100 data fields. Among them, we investigate 25 fields between 2004 and 2010 that are most relevant to car accidents. Using two classification methods, the Naive Bayes classifier and the decision tree classifier, the relative importance of the data fields, i.e., risk factors, is revealed with respect to the resulting severity level. Performances of the classifiers are compared to each other and a binary logistic regression model is used as the basis for the comparisons. Some of the high-ranking risk factors are found to be strongly dependent on each other, and their incremental gains on estimating or modeling severity level are evaluated quantitatively. The analysis shows that only a handful of the risk factors in the data dominate the severity level and that dependency among the top risk factors is an imperative trait to consider for an accurate analysis.     

Crossing county lines: the impact of crash location and driver's residence on motor vehicle crash fatality

INTRODUCTION: Studies have demonstrated that the fatality risk for motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) is higher in rural than urban areas. The purpose of this study was to quantify the risk of a fatal outcome associated with a crash by the urban/rural classification of the driver's county of residence and the county of crash before and after adjusting for potentially confounding factors. METHODS: County of crash and driver's county of residence were classified as urban or rural for 514,648 Utah crash participants. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the impact of rural versus urban crash location on fatality outcomes for both urban and rural drivers. RESULTS: Before adjusting for confounding factors the relative risk of fatality in a rural versus urban crash was 9.7 (95% CI: 8.0-11.7) for urban drivers and their passengers compared to 1.8 (95% CI: 1.3-2.6) for rural residents. Adjustment for behavioral, road, and crash characteristics reduced risk estimates to 2.8 (95% CI: 2.2-3.5) and 1.2 (95% CI: 0.8-1.7), respectively. CONCLUSION: Urban and rural drivers may have distinct risk factors for MVC fatality in rural areas. Interventions to reduce the risk of fatality in rural areas should evaluate the needs of both urban and rural drivers.     

Developing and deploying a patient safety program in a large health care delivery system: you can't fix what you don't know about

BACKGROUND: The Veterans Administration (VA) identified patient safety as a high-priority issue in 1997 and implemented the Patient Safety Improvement (PSI) initiative throughout its entire health care system. In spring 1998 the External Panel on Patient Safety System Design recommended alternative methods to enhance reporting and thereby improve patient safety. REDESIGNING THE PSI INITIATIVE: The VA began redesigning the PSI initiative in late 1998. The dedicated National Center for Patient Safety (NCPS) was established. Using the panel's recommendations as a jumping-off point, NCPS began to identify known and suspected obstacles to implementation (such as possible punitive consequences and additional workload). NCPS adopted a prioritization scoring method, the Safety Assessment Code (SAC) Matrix, for close calls and adverse events, which requires assessing the event's actual or potential severity and the probability of occurrence. The SAC Matrix specifies actions that must be taken for given scores. Use of the SAC score permits a consistent handling of reports throughout the VA system and a rational selection of cases to be considered. A system for performing a root cause analysis (RCA) was developed to guide caregivers at the frontline. This system includes a computer-aided tool, a flipbook containing a series of six questions, and reporting of the findings back to the reporter. The final step requires that the facility's chief executive officer "concur" or "nonconcur" on each recommended corrective action. The RCA team outlines how the effectiveness of the corrective action will be evaluated to verify that the action has had the intended effect, and it ascertains that there were no unintended negative consequences. IMPLEMENTATION: Based on successful implementation in two pilots, full-scale national rollout to the 173 facilities began in April 2000 and was concluded by the end of August 2000. NCPS supplied 3 days of training for individuals at each facility. The training included didactic components, an introduction to human factors engineering concepts, and small- and large-group simulation exercises. Facility leaders were reminded of the necessity to reinforce the point that assignment to an RCA team was considered an important duty. DISCUSSION: It is essential to design and implement a system that takes into account the concerns of the frontline personnel and is aimed at being a tool for learning and not accountability. The system must have as its primary focus the dissemination of positive actions that reduce or eliminate vulnerabilities that have been identified, not a counting exercise of the number of reports.     

Work-related ladder fall fractures: identification and diagnosis validation using narrative text

OBJECTIVE: To identify ladder-related fracture injuries and determine how ladder fall fractures differ from other ladder-related injuries. METHODS: Ladder-related fracture cases were identified using narrative text and coded data from workers' compensation claims. Potential cases were identified by text searches and verified with claim records. Injury characteristics were compared using proportionate injury ratios. RESULTS: Of 9826 ladder-related injuries, 7% resulted in fracture cases. Falls caused 89% of fractures and resulted in more medical costs and disability days than other injuries. Frequent mechanisms were ladder instability (22%) and lost footing (22%). Narrative text searches identified 17% more fractures than injury codes alone. Males were more likely to sustain a fall fracture than other injuries; construction workers were most likely, and retail workers were the least likely to sustain fractures. CONCLUSIONS: Fractures are an important injury from ladder falls, resulting more serious consequences than other ladder-related injuries. Text analysis can improve the quality and utility of workers compensation data by identifying and understanding injury causes. Proportionate injury ratios are also useful for making cross-group comparisons of injury experience when denominator data are not available. Greater attention to risk factors for ladder falls is needed for targeting interventions.     

Children at risk: predictors of car safety seat misuse in Ontario

When used correctly, child safety seats can reduce the risk of death and serious injury by 54% in toddlers and 71% in infants [National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 2001. Traffic Safety Facts 2001. Children (DOT HS 809 471), U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC]. The purpose of this study was to identify factors that predict correct use of car safety seats. The study was conducted in a large urban area in Southwestern Ontario and a small urban and rural area in Northern Ontario. Participants were 1263 caregivers who completed a self-report survey on their knowledge and use of car safety seats for their children (N=2199). Logistic regression analysis revealed that female caregivers, caregivers with higher levels of education, and caregivers who reported that finding information about the correct use of child safety seats was "difficult" were more likely to report correctly using car safety seats. The results also showed that children aged 7 months to 8 years old had substantially lower odds of being in the correct car safety seat compared to children aged 6 months or younger, or children aged 9 years or older. The high risk nature of misuse of child seats for infants and younger children may be an important cue to action for health professionals to develop comprehensive prevention strategies.     

乡村品牌叙事性设计策略研究

目的 通过叙事性设计方法,探究乡村品牌设计的系统化运用策略,并进行案例实证。方法 首先,通过对叙事性设计相关理论进行总结分析,梳理叙事性设计在乡村品牌设计中的应用价值。然后,结合文献分析、案例研究及用户调研等研究方法,构建乡村品牌叙事性设计策略:确立独特的叙事性主题;设置清晰的叙事性结构;融合时空的叙事性途径;设计形象的叙事性视觉。最后,通过“孔美村”乡村品牌设计实践,实证乡村品牌叙事性设计策略的可行性。结论 乡村品牌叙事性设计策略能系统化指导设计实践,助力乡村文化传播,提升用户体验,使“设计”最大化赋能乡村品牌建设,为乡村品牌设计提供新的视角与参考。     

A "worst case" methodology for obtaining a rough but rapid indication of the societal risk from a major accident hazard installation

This paper describes a methodology developed to provide a rough but rapid indication of the magnitude of the societal risks at and in the vicinity of a major accident hazard installation. It is intended to be used by the UK Health & Safety Executive (HSE) as a first screening tool when examining safety reports submitted under The Control of Major Accident Hazards (COMAH) Regulations 1999. These are the Regulations which implement in the UK the major aspects of Council Directive 96/82/EC, the "Seveso II" Directive. Within the methodology a new weighted risk integral parameter is defined, suitable for comparison with criteria, and its value calculated. The paper includes examples to illustrate the use of the methodology.     

The estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction in recent light-duty vehicles on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane, 2012). Societal fatality risk includes the risk to both the occupants of the case vehicle as well as any crash partner or pedestrians. The current analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. This paper replicates the Kahane analysis and extends it by testing the sensitivity of his results to changes in the definition of risk, and the data and control variables used in the regression models. An assessment by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in Kahane's previous studies, and is statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars (Wenzel, 2012a). The estimated effects of a reduction in mass or footprint (i.e. wheelbase times track width) are small relative to other vehicle, driver, and crash variables used in the regression models. The recent historical correlation between mass and footprint is not so large to prohibit including both variables in the same regression model; excluding footprint from the model, i.e. allowing footprint to decrease with mass, increases the estimated detrimental effect of mass reduction on risk in cars and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs)/minivans, but has virtually no effect on light trucks. Analysis by footprint deciles indicates that risk does not consistently increase with reduced mass for vehicles of similar footprint. Finally, the estimated effects of mass and footprint reduction are sensitive to the measure of exposure used (fatalities per induced exposure crash, rather than per VMT), as well as other changes in the data or control variables used. It appears that the safety penalty from lower mass can be mitigated with careful vehicle design, and that manufacturers can reduce mass as a strategy to increase their vehicles’ fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions without necessarily compromising societal safety.     

Relative fatality risk curve to describe the effect of change in the impact speed on fatality risk of pedestrians struck by a motor vehicle

Models describing the relation between impact speed and fatality risk for pedestrians struck by a motor vehicle have frequently been used by practitioners and scientists in applying an S curve to visualize the importance of speed for the chance of survival. Recent studies have suggested that these risk curves are biased and do not give representative risk values. These studies present new fatality risk curves that show much lower risks of fatality than before, which has caused confusion and misconceptions about how these new curves should be interpreted, and how this should affect speed management policy.