Optimization of safety equipment outages improves safety

Testing and maintenance activities of safety equipment in nuclear power plants are an important potential for risk and cost reduction. An optimization method is presented based on the simulated annealing algorithm. The method determines the optimal schedule of safety equipment outages due to testing and maintenance based on minimization of selected risk measure. The mean value of the selected time dependent risk measure represents the objective function of the optimization. The time dependent function of the selected risk measure is obtained from probabilistic safety assessment, i.e. the fault tree analysis at the system level and the fault tree/event tree analysis at the plant level, both extended with inclusion of time requirements. Results of several examples showed that it is possible to reduce risk by application of the proposed method. Because of large uncertainties in the probabilistic safety assessment, the most important result of the method may not be a selection of the most suitable schedule of safety equipment outages among those, which results in similarly low risk. But, it may be a prevention of such schedules of safety equipment outages, which result in high risk. Such finding increases the importance of evaluation speed versus the requirement of getting always the global optimum no matter if it is only slightly better that certain local one.     

基于动态故障树的CTCS-3级ATP系统可靠性分析简

 针对传统的可靠性分析方法分析CTCS-3级ATP系统动态失效问题的不足,提出采用动态故障树分析其可靠性。首先,分析系统的结构和功能建立动态故障树模型;其次,采用深度优先最左遍历算法搜索动态故障树模型,得到独立的子树;最后,在引入可修系统可靠性指标基础上,采用解析法和马尔科夫矩阵迭代法求解子树,结合分层迭代方法对动态故障树分析法改进,以减小运算量,使得上述可靠性指标能用于CTCS-3级ATP系统的可靠性评估。计算所得可靠性指标与可靠性框图分析得到的结果对比表明：动态故障树能够更好地描述系统的冗余性和容错性等特点,提高了可靠性指标的精度。     

Gastric esophageal surgery risk analysis with a fault tree and Markov integrated model

Reliability methods have been widely used in risk analysis of medical surgeries. In this study, the authors combine a fault tree with Markov models to assess time independent- and dependent factors together. Dynamics are integrated in the traditional fault tree, and meanwhile the processes of solving Markov are simplified with the modular approach. Continuous time Markov chains are adopted in evaluating the failure probability of a gastric esophageal surgery after categorizing basic events in the fault tree, and a certain time dependent variables, such as failure rate of medical equipment, surgery frequency, and rescue timeliness are involved into risk analysis. A case is studied with data collected from a general hospital, to illustrate the operational process of the proposed method. Results based on the inputs show that taking rescue actions into consideration can reduce the gap between the result of fault tree analysis and the reality. Sensitivity analysis for measuring the impacts of the above time relevant variables is conducted, as well as limitations of the Markov model are discussed.     

Assessment of fire vulnerability for nuclear power plant safety systems by combining fault-and success-oriented logic with physical models

The time behaviour of potential accident sequences may carry important information regarding nuclear power plant (NPP) safety operation and shutdown. In the case of external and environmental events, the ability of NPP components to operate correctly can be changed dramatically in a short time. In contrast to the failures caused by internal events, these two groups of undesirable events may lead to dynamic dependent failures among components of one or several systems. Such kinds of failure should be taken into account in the models of NPP behaviour. To evaluate how successfully the tasks of the safety systems will be carded out, logical models such as fault trees are usually used. The fault trees are not efficient at describing the short-term changes of the failure probabilities for system components. A method that has some advantages over the pure fault tree logic is proposed. The main features of the method are demonstrated by using examples.     

Safety and reliability analysis in a polyvinyl chloride batch process using dynamic simulator-case study: Loss of containment incident

In this paper, a novel methodology in batch plant safety and reliability analysis is proposed using a dynamic simulator. A batch process involving several safety objects (e.g. sensors, controller, valves, etc.) is activated during the operational stage. The performance of the safety objects is evaluated by the dynamic simulation and a fault propagation model is generated. By using the fault propagation model, an improved fault tree analysis (FTA) method using switching signal mode (SSM) is developed for estimating the probability of failures. The timely dependent failures can be considered as unavailability of safety objects that can cause the accidents in a plant. Finally, the rank of safety object is formulated as performance index (PI) and can be estimated using the importance measures. PI shows the prioritization of safety objects that should be investigated for safety improvement program in the plants. The output of this method can be used for optimal policy in safety object improvement and maintenance. The dynamic simulator was constructed using Visual Modeler (VM, the plant simulator, developed by Omega Simulation Corp., Japan). A case study is focused on the loss of containment (LOC) incident at polyvinyl chloride (PVC) batch process which is consumed the hazardous material, vinyl chloride monomer (VCM).     

An Efficient Approximate Markov Chain Method in Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis

Approximate Markov chain method for dynamic fault tree analysis is suggested for both reparable and non‐reparable systems. The approximation is based on truncation, aggregation and elimination of Markov chain states during the process of dynamic fault tree transformation to corresponding Markov chain. The method is valid for small probabilities. For reparable systems, it is true if mean time to repair is much less than mean time to failure. Several examples are studied. Additional simplification is considered in case the system is in a steady state. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fast Fault Tree Analysis for Hybrid Uncertainties Using Stochastic Logic Implemented on Field‐Programmable Gate Arrays: An Application in Quantitative Assessment and mitigation of Welding Defects Risk

This paper presents a stochastic logic‐based method for quantitative risk assessment using fault tree analysis (FTA) that can take into account both types of uncertainties including objective and subjective uncertainties. In the proposed method, each fault tree gate is translated to its corresponding stochastic logic template and then is implemented on a field programmable gate array (FPGA). Because the analysis does not utilize any transformation methods, the results of analysis are more accurate than those methods which are based on transformation from possibility to probability distributions or vice versa. Experimental results for a benchmark fault tree show that this method accelerates analysis time compared to conventional hybrid uncertainty analysis method and transformation methods. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated by implementation in a real steel structure project. The quantitative risk assessment is performed for the incomplete penetration as one of the defects encountered in arc welding process, and its results are compared with transformation methods. The comparison results show the proposed hybrid uncertainty analysis method is also more accurate in comparison to the transformation‐based approaches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于事故树分析法的控制爆破危害影响研究

广西河百高速在施工过程中部分开挖路段需进行爆破开挖,周边有居民房,为确保施工安全,需控制爆破冲击波、爆破振动和爆破飞石等对人员和构筑物的不利影响。采用安全系统工程中事故树分析方法对危险因素展开了系统分析,分别建立了爆破冲击波、爆破振动和爆破飞石事故树,综合分析得到事故树最小割集、事故树最小径集和事故树结构重要度,指出各个因素主次。结果表明:综合爆破冲击波、爆破振动和爆破飞石的事故树分析,在爆破施工过程中要加大施工现场监管、施工设计、减振措施和爆破警戒范围内飞石控制措施等的管理力度。     

Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects

There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites.     

Dynamic reliability and risk assessment of the accident localization system of the Ignalina NPP RBMK-1500 reactor

The paper presents reliability and risk analysis of the RBMK-1500 reactor accident localization system (ALS) (confinement), which prevents radioactive releases to the environment. Reliability of the system was estimated and compared by two methods: the conventional fault tree method and an innovative dynamic reliability model, based on stochastic differential equations. Frequency of radioactive release through ALS was also estimated. The results of the study indicate that conventional fault tree modeling techniques in this case apply high degree of conservatism in the system reliability estimates.One of the purposes of the ALS reliability study was to demonstrate advantages of the dynamic reliability analysis against the conventional fault/event tree methods. The Markovian framework to deal with dynamic aspects of system behavior is presented. Although not analyzed in detail, the framework is also capable of accounting for non-constant component failure rates. Computational methods are proposed to solve stochastic differential equations, including analytical solution, which is possible only for relatively small and simple systems. Other numerical methods, like Monte Carlo and numerical schemes of differential equations are analyzed and compared. The study is finalized with concluding remarks regarding both the studied system reliability and computational methods used.     

A practical method for accurate quantification of large fault trees

This paper describes a practical method to accurately quantify top event probability and importance measures from incomplete minimal cut sets (MCS) of a large fault tree. The MCS-based fault tree method is extensively used in probabilistic safety assessments. Several sources of uncertainties exist in MCS-based fault tree analysis. The paper is focused on quantification of the following two sources of uncertainties: (1) the truncation neglecting low-probability cut sets and (2) the approximation in quantifying MCSs. The method proposed in this paper is based on a Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate probability of the discarded MCSs and the sum of disjoint products (SDP) approach complemented by the correction factor approach (CFA). The method provides capability to accurately quantify the two uncertainties and estimate the top event probability and importance measures of large coherent fault trees. The proposed fault tree quantification method has been implemented in the CUTREE code package and is tested on the two example fault trees.     

New algorithms for fault trees analysis

In this paper, a new method for fault tree management is presented. This method is based on binary decision diagrams and allows the efficient computation of both the minimal cuts of a fault tree and the probability of its root event. We show on a set of benchmarks that our method results in a qualitative and quantitative improvement in safety analysis of industrial systems.     

A method for analysing the reliability of a transmission grid

The paper describes a probabilistic method for transmission grid security evaluation. Power system security is the ability of the power system to withstand sudden disturbances such as short circuits. The method presented here uses event and fault trees and combines them with power system dynamic simulations. Event trees model the substation protection and trip operations after line faults. Different event tree end states (fault duration, circuit breaker trips) are simulated with power system dynamic analysis program. The dynamic analysis results (power system post-fault states) are then classified into secure, alert, emergency and system breakdown. The probabilities, minimal cut sets and grid level importance measures (Fussell-Vesely, risk increase and decrease factors) are calculated for the total and partial system breakdown. In this way, the relative importance of the substation devices regarding to the system breakdown can be reached. Also the more and less likely contributing factors to system breakdown are received. With this method, an existing 400 kV transmission grid with its line fault and device failure statistics is analysed.     

TOPAAS: An Alternative Approach to Software Reliability Quantification

In the realm of safety related systems, a growing number of functions are realized by software, ranging from ‘firmware’ to autonomous decision‐taking software. To support (political) real‐world decision makers, quantitative risk assessment methodology quantifies the reliability of systems. The optimal choice of safety measures with respect to the available budget, for example, the UK (as low as reasonably practicable approach), requires quantification. If a system contains software, some accepted methods on quantification of software reliability exist, but none of them is generally applicable, as we will show. We propose a model bringing software into the quantitative risk assessment domain by introducing failure of software modules (with their probabilities) as basic events in a fault tree. The method is known as ‘TOPAAS’ (Task‐Oriented Probability of Abnormalities Analysis for Software). TOPAAS is a factor model allowing the quantification of the basic ‘software’ events in fault tree analyses. In this paper, we argue that this is the best approach currently available to industry. Task‐Oriented Probability of Abnormalities Analysis for Software is a practical model by design and is currently put to field testing in risk assessments of programmable electronic safety‐related systems in tunnels and control systems of movable storm surge barriers in the Netherlands. The TOPAAS model is constructed to incorporate detailed fields of knowledge and to provide focus toward reliability quantification in the form of a probability measure of mission failure. Our development also provides context for further in‐depth research. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fault tree developed by an object-based method improves requirements specification for safety-related systems

Fault tree analysis is frequently used to improve system reliability and safety. To be suitable for analysis of software in computerised safety-related systems, it has to be modified accordingly. This paper presents a new application: the fault trees developed by an object-based method. The object-based method integrates structural and behavioural models of a system. The developed fault tree includes information on structure and the failure behaviours of classes of the system. Away from traditional use of the fault tree, which for traditional systems emphasises qualitative and quantitative results, the result of the new application emphasises the process of fault tree development and its qualitative results. Such fault tree application reduces the probability of failures in the requirements specification phase within the software life cycle, which increases the reliability of its product; however, it does not confirm this in a quantitative manner.     

An analysis of safety-critical digital systems for risk-informed design

This paper quantitatively presents the results of a case study which examines the fault tree analysis framework of the safety of digital systems. The case study is performed for the digital reactor protection system of nuclear power plants. The broader usage of digital equipment in nuclear power plants gives rise to the need for assessing safety and reliability because it plays an important role in proving the safety of a designed system in the nuclear industry. We quantitatively explain the relationship between the important characteristics of digital systems and the PSA result using mathematical expressions. We also demonstrate the effect of critical factors on the system safety by sensitivity study and the result which is quantified using the fault tree method shows that some factors remarkably affect the system safety. They are the common cause failure, the coverage of fault tolerant mechanisms and software failure probability.     

液氧贮槽爆炸事故树分析

采用安全系统工程的方法 ,对液氧贮槽爆炸进行了事故树分析 ,通过求事故树最小割集 ,进行结构重要度分析 ,从而对液氧贮槽爆炸的事故原因进行分析、预测 ,并提出了相应的预防控制措施     

Dynamic fault tree analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in probabilistic safety assessment

Traditional fault tree (FT) analysis is widely used for reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. The behavior of components of complex systems and their interactions such as sequence- and functional-dependent failures, spares and dynamic redundancy management, and priority of failure events cannot be adequately captured by traditional FTs. Dynamic fault tree (DFT) extend traditional FT by defining additional gates called dynamic gates to model these complex interactions. Markov models are used in solving dynamic gates. However, state space becomes too large for calculation with Markov models when the number of gate inputs increases. In addition, Markov model is applicable for only exponential failure and repair distributions. Modeling test and maintenance information on spare components is also very difficult. To address these difficulties, Monte Carlo simulation-based approach is used in this work to solve dynamic gates. The approach is first applied to a problem available in the literature which is having non-repairable components. The obtained results are in good agreement with those in literature. The approach is later applied to a simplified scheme of electrical power supply system of nuclear power plant (NPP), which is a complex repairable system having tested and maintained spares. The results obtained using this approach are in good agreement with those obtained using analytical approach. In addition to point estimates of reliability measures, failure time, and repair time distributions are also obtained from simulation. Finally a case study on reactor regulation system (RRS) of NPP is carried out to demonstrate the application of simulation-based DFT approach to large-scale problems.     

Fault trees analysis using expert opinion based on fuzzy‐bathtub failure rates

The main objective of fault tree analysis method is to estimate the “Top Event occurrence probability”. This requires determination of failure time distribution functions also known as “Bathtub Curves” for each of the system elements/events. This paper introduces a novel method to determine the failure time distribution functions using possibility theory. For this purpose, fuzzy‐bathtub distributions using expert opinions are generated for basic events and fuzzy formulas are derived for static and dynamic gates fault tree constructions. This process completed by proposed fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation throughout the preferred operational time and uses the actual time‐to‐failure data. Accordingly, the Top Event failure curve and the reliability profile of the system are depicted based on the defuzzificated basic‐events' bathtub‐failure‐rates. The results show that the proposed method not only is feasible and powerful but can also be accurate more than the other probabilistic and possibilistic techniques because of the component failure rates follow the real failure distributions.     

基于FTA模型的荔枝冷藏运输环节风险分析

目的解决荔枝冷藏运输环节中安全风险识别及定性分析的难题。方法基于因素空间及故障树分析模型(FTA),分析荔枝冷链运输环节的安全事件集、空间结构(工位)集和简约因素集,建立荔枝冷藏运输环节风险因素关系矩阵,通过矩阵运算获取不同空间结构下荔枝运输安全事故发生的基本事件。结果根据运算求解结果,构建荔枝运输环节的故障树模型,获取了运输环节故障树的最小割集。荔枝冷藏运输事故最小割集数为13个,并分析了各个基本事件的结构重要度。结论通过研究最小割集及事件的结构重要度,进行荔枝冷链运输环节的安全分析,并提出了促进现场安全管理的对策及建议。