巴尔喀什湖流域降水量及其年内分配的变化特征

了解巴尔喀什湖流域降水变化特征是开发利用流域水资源、探究流域生态环境改变原因的前提,基于巴尔喀什湖流域5个气象站1936~2005年的逐月降水资料,采用分摊熵、趋势系数和Mann Kendall非参数统计检验法对降水量特征、变化趋势进行分析。结果表明,流域年均降水量在100～700 mm之间,70%的降水集中于4~7、10~12月;流域的年、月降水量呈上升趋势,1~2、11~12月显著;流域降水年内分配整体上无显著变化。     

三种旱涝指标在南京市的适用性分析

为评价降水Z指数、标准化降水指数和降水分级指数三种旱涝指标在南京市的旱涝频发特征中应用的优劣,基于南京站1951~2012年逐日降水资料,研究1、3、6、9、12个月等5种尺度下降水Z指数、降水分级指数和标准化降水指数三种旱涝指标与对应时段降水量的关系、三种旱涝指标的相关关系、月际过程及在历史典型旱涝年中的应用效果。结果表明,降水Z指数、降水分级指数与对应时段降水量线性关系良好,标准化降水指数与对应时段降水量的关系为12条差异明显的单增曲线簇,标准化降水指数能考虑降水在时程分布上的差异,尺度越大,各指标间相关关系越好;1、3、6、9个月尺度下的降水Z指数、降水分级指数不适用于南京市,12个月尺度下的降水Z指数、降水分级指数和标准化降水指数对旱涝判断基本一致,降水分级指数对降水的敏感度高,更能反映历史旱涝严重程度。     

海河流域极端降水时空变化规律及其与大气环流的关系

为了解海河流域极端降水时空变化规律,基于海河流域40个气象站1960～2016年逐日降水资料,采用线性回归、M-K趋势检验法、Pearson相关性分析法,分析了海河流域近57年来10个极端降水指数的时空变化及其与大气环流的相关性。结果表明,除了持续干期(CDD)和持续湿期(CWD)外,大多数极端降水指数多年平均值在空间上呈自东南向西北减少的分布规律,CDD呈现自北向南减少的规律,CWD呈现自东南向西北增加的规律;在时间变化上,所有极端降水指数均呈下降趋势,只有最大一日降水量(RX1day)的下降趋势显著;在空间变化上,除中雨日数(R10mm)和降水强度(SDII)呈上升趋势的站点与呈下降趋势的站点个数相同外,多数站点各极端降水指数呈下降趋势;除CDD与其他极端降水指数相关性较弱外,各极端降水指数的变化具有较好的一致性;除CWD外,极端降水指数与厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)现象关系密切,而AO(北极涛动)和NAO(北大西洋涛动)是CWD变化的重要因素。研究成果对于海河流域水灾害防治及水资源配置有重要意义。     

白龙江流域极端降水年际变化及对气候变化的响应

受极端降水的影响,白龙江流域极易发生地质灾害,严重威胁当地的经济发展与生命安全。为此,根据白龙江流域1965~2011年5个气象站点的逐日降水资料,计算极端降水指数,采用Mann-Kendall检验法分析白龙江流域极端降水的年际变化特征及对气候变化的响应。结果表明,1970年代初期到1980年代中期白龙江流域极端降水指数均显著增加,1990年代中期之后显著减少,其中大雨日数发生了减少突变;各站点强降水次数变化特征差异显著,强降水次数的线性拟合减少率为0.002~0.280次/10a,迭部和武都长期减少趋势最明显,文县和武都发生了减少突变;极端降水指数与年平均气温呈显著负相关,相关系数为-0.46~-0.36(P0.05),与年平均降水量呈显著正相关,相关系数为0.77~0.82(P0.01)。     

标准化降水蒸散发指数在云南省历史干旱特征分析中的应用

鉴于标准化降水蒸散发指数(SSPEI)可用于多时空尺度的气象干旱过程评估,在采用Mann-Kendall方法分析1958~2013年间云南省37个气象站降水和气温变化趋势的基础上,对比分析了基于Thornthwaite公式和Penman-Monteith公式两种潜在蒸散发计算方法的SSPEI指数(SSPEI-Th和SSPEI-Pm)在历史干旱特征分析中的适用性。结果表明,云南省大部分气象站的SSPEI-Th和SSPEI-Pm时间序列均呈下降趋势,即变得更为干燥,站点主要分布于云南省南部地区;SSPEI-Th与SSPEI-Pm的相关性具有很好的一致性;两种潜在蒸散发计算方法的SSPEI指数在云南省均有较好的适用性,但SSPEI-Pm在中北部高海拔地区冬春干旱时间识别上精度更高。     

汾河上游水文干旱与气象干旱的关系

为分析汾河上游水文干旱与气象干旱的关系,基于汾河上游4个气象站1956~2000年月降水量、月平均气温资料建立流域标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),并根据4个水文站同期月径流资料建立各水文站标准化径流指数(SRI);对1、3、6、12个月4个时间尺度的指数进行趋势分析,然后分析各水文站4个时间尺度的SRI与流域SPI、SPEI的相关性,最后采用时移互相关分析、回归分析研究水文干旱对气象干旱的滞后性。结果表明,汾河上游呈干旱化趋势;各站水文干旱与气象干旱间的相关系数随时间尺度的增加而增加,都通过了显著性检验;相同时间尺度下,4个水文站水文干旱与气象干旱相关程度差异较弱;SRI与SPEI的相关程度较SRI与SPI更为紧密;12个月时间尺度下,汾河水库、寨上、兰村SRI表征的水文干旱滞后于以SPEI表征的气象干旱约1个月。     

三种干旱指数在南盘江流域识别干旱能力中的应用

基于南盘江流域1971～2010年25站的气温及月降水资料,分别计算了不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数(ISPI)、干旱侦测指数(IRDI)和标准化降水蒸发指数(ISPEI),以历史干旱灾情数据及典型大旱灾情数据为依据,比较分析了3种干旱指数对干旱及干旱级别的识别能力。结果表明,3种干旱指数的计算结果较为一致,具有较好的相关性;3种干旱指数对干旱和干旱等级的识别能力依次为ISPEI最强,IRDI次之,ISPI最差。ISPEI考虑了潜在蒸发量对干旱的影响,与ISPI、IRDI相比,ISPEI更适合于南盘江流域的干旱监测与评估。     

多种干旱指标在天津地区干旱评价中的应用

以天津地区为例,基于1954~2011年的月降雨和月气温等气象资料,比较分析了标准化降水指数（SPI）、帕默尔干旱指标（PDSI）和标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI）三种干旱指数在不同时间尺度的相关性,并探讨了在干旱事件评价中的应用效果。结果表明,不同时间尺度的SPI和SPEI相关性显著,PDSI与年尺度SPI、SPEI显著相关,SPEI对实际旱情的判断稍优于SPI和PDSI;天津地区持续干旱在加剧,值得进一步关注。     

黄河中上游多源降水数据精度评估

为研究黄河中上游遥感降水数据的可替代性,以2001~2010年站点实测降水数据为依据,采用相关系数、均方根误差和平均误差三个指标,分别从年、季、月尺度对14种卫星降水数据进行精度评价,并以水系为空间单元对极端降水事件进行评估。结果表明,在年、季、月尺度上,ITPCAS的精度均相对较高,GSMaP、PERSIANN的精度最低。季节上,降水数据均易高估春、夏季暴雨以下降水,低估暴雨以上降水;均易高估秋季大雨以下降水,低估大雨以上降水。对于极端降水,GSMaP、CHIRPS呈严重高估,PERSIANN呈严重低估;区域上,甘宁、内蒙水系各数据集对极端降水的评估与实测降水的一致性较强,其余水系中各数据集对极端降水评估的精度差异较大。     

黄河中上游多源降水数据精度评估

为研究黄河中上游遥感降水数据的可替代性,以2001~2010年站点实测降水数据为依据,采用相关系数、均方根误差和平均误差三个指标,分别从年、季、月尺度对14种卫星降水数据进行精度评价,并以水系为空间单元对极端降水事件进行评估。结果表明,在年、季、月尺度上,ITPCAS的精度均相对较高,GSMaP、PERSIANN的精度最低。季节上,降水数据均易高估春、夏季暴雨以下降水,低估暴雨以上降水;均易高估秋季大雨以下降水,低估大雨以上降水。对于极端降水,GSMaP、CHIRPS呈严重高估,PERSIANN呈严重低估;区域上,甘宁、内蒙水系各数据集对极端降水的评估与实测降水的一致性较强,其余水系中各数据集对极端降水评估的精度差异较大。     

火电厂节能工作浅析

本文探讨了火电厂节能基本程序和工作方法,分析节能工作要从基础工作、技术创新、设备整治、燃烧管理等方面入手的论述.     

Uncertainties in decarbonising heat in the UK

Heating is arguably one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonise in the UK's energy system. Meeting the 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 is likely to require that heat related emissions of CO₂ from buildings are near zero by 2050, and there is a 70% reduction in emissions from industry (from 1990 levels). Though it is clear that the use of the natural gas network will reduce over time, recent modelling suggests a limited residual role for gas by 2050 to help meet peaks in heat demand. High levels of uncertainty about the way in which heat will be decarbonised present a number of challenges to policy makers. This paper will explore the risks and uncertainties associated with the transition to a low carbon heat system in the UK as outlined by the 4th carbon budget review. The potential impact of key uncertainties on the levelised costs of heat technologies and the development of energy networks are explored using a sensitivity analysis approach. Policy changes required to decarbonise the heat sector are also examined.     

Viscous heating in liquid flows in micro-channels

Many experimental works on forced convection through micro-channels evidenced that when the hydraulic diameter is less than 1 mm, conventional theory can no longer be considered as suitable to predict the pressure drop and convective heat transfer coefficients. This conclusion seemed valid for both gas and liquid flows. Sometimes the authors justified this claim by invoking “new” micro-effects. On the contrary, in this paper the explanation of the experimental results obtained for micro-channels in terms of friction factors will be researched inside the conventional theory (Navier-Stokes equations). In particular, this paper will focus on the role of viscous heating in fluids flowing through micro-channels. A criterion will be presented to draw the limit of significance for viscous dissipation effects in micro-channel flows. The role of the cross-sectional geometry on viscous dissipation will be highlighted and the minimum Reynolds number for which viscous dissipation effects can no longer be neglected will be calculated as a function of the hydraulic diameter and of the micro-channel geometry for different fluids. It will be demonstrated how viscous effects can explain some experimental results on the Poiseuille numbers in micro-channels, which recently appeared in the open literature.     

Solar drying in sludge management in Turkey

Two main wastewater treatment plants in Bursa city in Turkey will start to operate and produce at least 27,000 tons of dry solids per year by the end of 2006. The purpose of this study was to investigate an economical solution to the sludge management problem that Bursa city would encounter. The general trend in Turkey is mechanical dewatering to obtain a dry solid (DS) content of 20%, and liming the mechanically dewatered sludge to reach the legal landfilling requirement, 35% DS content. This study recommends limited liming & solar drying as an alternative to only-liming the mechanically dewatered sludge. Open and covered solar sludge drying plants were constructed in pilot scale for experimental purposes. Dry solids and climatic conditions were constantly measured. Faecal coliform reduction was also monitored. The specially designed covered solar drying plant proved to be more efficient than the open plant in terms of drying and faecal coliform reduction. It was found that, if the limited liming & solar drying method was applied after mechanical dewatering instead of only-liming method, the total amount of the sludge to be disposed would be reduced by approximately 40%. This would lead to a reduction in the transportation, handling, and landfilling costs. The covered drying system would amortize itself in 4 years.     

Electoral cycles in electricity losses in India

A third of electricity in India is lost each year, where losses refer to power that is supplied but not billed. Utilizing data from the power corporation of Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, we study the politics of electricity losses. Examining annual data over four decades, we document that UP's electricity losses tend to increase in periods immediately prior to state assembly elections. Drawing upon geographically disaggregated data for the period 2000–09, we observe higher line losses just prior to the 2002 and 2007 state elections. Our analysis shows that the incumbent party was more likely to retain the assembly seat as line losses in the locality increased. We interpret these results as corroboration that political parties deliberately redirect electricity to flat rate and unbilled users in a context of chronically inadequate supply. Political factors appear to affect line losses in ways that technical and economic factors alone cannot explain.     

中国可再生能源发展状况、展望及政策措施建议

2010年我国可再生能源步入全面规模化开发利用阶段,水电装机总量突破2亿kW,风电并网运营容量突破3000万kW,太阳能发电市场开始启动,生物质能多元化快速发展。但实现中长期战略发展目标的任务仍然艰巨。2011年,新可再生能源发展规划目标将出台,应着力完善可再生能源市场、价格、财税等政策,重点出台新能源配额制、落实可再生能源发电全额保障性收购制度,促进可再生能源电力尤其是风电的上网和消纳。     

Progress in use of surfactant in nearly static conditions in natural gas hydrate formation

Natural gas hydrate is an alternative energy source with a great potential for development. The addition of surfactants has been found to have practical implications on the acceleration of hydrate formation in the industrial sector. In this paper, the mechanisms of different surfactants that have been reported to promote hydrate formation are summarized. Besides, the factors influencing surfactant-promoted hydrate formation, including the type, concentration, and structure of the surfactant, are also described. Moreover, the effects of surfactants on the formation of hydrate in pure water, brine, porous media, and systems containing multiple surfactants are discussed. The synergistic or inhibitory effects of the combinations of these additives are also analyzed. Furthermore, the process of establishing kinetic and thermodynamic models to simulate the factors affecting the formation of hydrate in surfactant-containing solutions is illustrated and summarized.     

Wind resource assessment in Hormozgan province in Iran

In this study, statistical analysing is performed of wind data measured over a 10 min period based on the Weibull distribution function during one year at three heights carried out to determine the potential of wind in two locations in the Hormozgan province. According to the results, wind speed at 40 m height in Kish city ranged from 4.47 m/s in October to 6.69 m/s in March with average value of 5.32 m/s. However, for Jask city wind speed ranged from 3.4 m/s in January to 5.16 m/s in June with average value of 4.22 m/s. According to world classification of wind power, the wind power density is in class 2 for Kish site while for Jask site it is in class 1. Energy production of different wind turbines at different heights is determined. At the end, an economic evaluation was carried out to determine whether studied sites are suitable for development of small-scale wind turbines.     

预测火灾情况下竖井中性面位置的连续模型

针对竖井侧向连续开缝和竖井侧向连续开缝及上部开口两种情况,在Klote模型的基础上,根据竖井内温度在竖向上连续分布的特点,建立了预测火灾情况下竖井中性面高度的连续模型.通过计算流体力学模拟,将Klote模型、双区域模型及连续模型与模拟结果进行对比.结果表明,连续模型偏差最小；通过分析连续模型计算结果可知,中性面高度受火...     

甲醇在柴油机上应用的技术进展

在我国石油供应缺口较大的情况下,需求结构也不尽合理,柴油消耗量大,柴汽比过高。因此,发展石油替代燃料应以替代柴油为重点目标。天津大学提出了一种甲醇/柴油组合燃烧方式,在柴油机上的试验结果表明,可以实现不到1.5kg甲醇替换1.0kg柴油,甲醇对柴油的替代率平均达到20%以上,同时可以减少微粒和NOx排放,将原发动机的排放品质提高1个等级。以甲醇替代柴油,在能源多元化、节能减排、燃料能源结构调整等方面是有利的,同时还可以提高发动机高原动力,发挥我国现有甲醇产能。我国对甲醇作为燃料在认识上存在较大误区,但长期的实践和研究结果表明,与汽油、柴油相比,甲醇的毒性与之相当;其排放物是清洁的;甲醇对生态环境更友好;使用更安全;甲醇对材料的腐蚀性完全可以得到根本解决;甲醇在燃烧时排出的温室气体少于汽油、柴油,与柴油或汽油一起燃烧更有利于减少温室气体排放。建议国家对甲醇在压燃式发动机上应用给予一定支持,开展相关的基础研究。