中国及世界一次能源消费结构现状分析

根据《2012年BP世界能源统计年鉴》的数据,按照能源种类,分析研究了世界和中国的石油、天然气、煤炭等传统一次能源消费情况,同时对核能、水电、可再生能源的消费量进行了统计分析.通过分析比较,对中国能源消费趋势作出了预测.预计到2030年,中国能源消费占世界能源总消费量的比重将上升至27%.为了缓解中国目前巨大的能源和环境压力,提出了几点建议,包括:研究煤炭的清洁利用技术,开发非常规油气资源和发展可再生能源.     

能源供需趋势

正2040年世界核能发电量将增长约一倍ENECO,2016,49(7):46-48据美国能源部能源信息署(EIA)的"世界能源展望2016"预测,在能源安全保障悬念增大和抑制温室气体排放的潮流中,2040年世界核能发电量将增长约一倍。尽管可再生能源大幅增加,但2040年时化石燃料仍占世界能源总用量的78%。世界能源的CO_2排放量将从     

瑞典电力领域研究与SWOT分析

瑞典具备成熟的电力市场,是北欧电力市场的重要成员,研究瑞典电力领域对我国电力行业发展具有重要意义。2017年瑞典全国电力装机约3949.84×10~4kW,其中水力发电占比41.5%,非水可再生能源占比29.6%,核电占比21.2%,地热发电占比7.7%。瑞典企业、能源和通讯部及其下属的瑞典能源局、瑞典电力市场督察组以及电力企业,构成了该国电力行业的主要架构。其电力交易机制以北欧电力市场的现货市场为基础,辅助服务市场和金融市场为补充。瑞典还制定了《新能源指导书》等相关能源政策,计划到2020年可再生能源消费占到其能源消费总量的50%。瑞典的"绿色证书"运行机制促使可再生能源电价完全通过市场机制调节。从政治形势、商业环境、能源禀赋、地理位置等方面对瑞典电力市场进行SWOT分析,认为未来该国将日益依赖于可再生能源(包括水电)的供应,非水电可再生能源、生物质能以及热电联产项目将成为瑞典电力市场未来5年的增长点。     

“碳中和”目标下中国核电发展

中国能源结构不合理,化石能源占比偏高,这对如期实现“碳中和”目标带来巨大的挑战。大规模利用无碳能源是减少碳排放量的主要手段,核能作为优质的无碳能源,在“碳中和”过程中将做出重大贡献。本文从能源的生产、消费及结构等方面分析了中国能源供需现状及其发展趋势,介绍了中国核电的发展现状,预测了中国核电在不同强度低碳情景下的需求量,构建了核电“三位一体”的发展架构,保障核能高速可持续发展。研究表明中国在“碳中和”目标引导下,无碳能源大规模使用,能源结构将获得极大的优化,核能将成为最重要的无碳能源供应来源之一,在强化低碳情景中,随着核电技术及建设能力的极大提高,预计2050年中国核电装机规模最高可达6.9亿千瓦时。     

电力部门要承担起发展清洁能源的重任

我国"十二五"期间要实现能源结构调整和电力发展方式的转变,大力发展清洁能源。应当说,新能源、可再生能源、非化石能源和新兴能源都是清洁能源,它包括洁净煤、天然气(含煤层气、页岩气、致密砂岩气等)、核电、水电、风能、太阳能、生物质能等。由于清洁能源大部分需要通过电力来实现,所以在清洁能源发展中电力部门必然是主力军。电力部门一是要研究开发清洁能源新技术,把清洁能源转变成安全、稳定、经济的电力;二是要使清洁能源生产出来的电力能为广大用户所接受。只有达到这两个条件,由清洁能源转变而来的电力才能提高其在电力总供应量中的比重。在IEA和BP的世界一次能源统计中,中国"非化石能源+天然气"的比重都非常低,均不到20%。统计数据反映出的中国能源结构的突出问题是煤炭比例太高,石油、天然气、核电比例太低。因此,与发达国家不同,中国改善能源结构、发展清洁能源的重点应该是主攻洁净煤技术(包括CCS),同时加快发展天然气、核能和水电。     

中外非化石能源统计分析的启示

通过对世界主要国家一次能源供应构成的分析,发达国家基本上都完成了第一次和第二次能源大转换,已不存在生物质能的传统利用,煤炭占一次能源消费的比重已大大下降,石油和天然气的比重有了很大提高。核电、水电、生物质能已成为发达国家非化石能源的主体,但随着资源的日渐枯竭,今后的方向是发展风电、太阳能发电等新能源。发展中国家尚未完成第一次和第二次能源大转换,在一次能源构成中石油、天然气的比重还较低,核电、水电和生物质能的开发还有很大潜力可以发掘。因此,发达国家和发展中国家的能源发展战略是不同的,前者主要发展风电、太阳能发电,而后者应发展核电、水电和生物质能。我国提出逐步提高非化石能源的比重,完全符合我国目前能源工业的现状。我国非化石能源占一次能源消费总量的比重有不同的计算口径,应明确非化石能源的统计口径,对非化石能源进行全面统计。为了完成我国2020年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15%的目标,应尽快把落后的能源工业改造为现代能源产业,加快完成第一次、第二次能源大转换,同时应大力鼓励增加电力进口。     

2010～2020年我国能源和电力发展前景分析

本文对我国2015及2020年能源、电力消费以及碳排放强度进行高中低三种情景分析。结果表明,中方案和低方案能够实现到2020年非化石能源消费占一次能源消费比重达到15%的目标,而高方案要实现该目标,必须将人均能源消费弹性系数降至0.6左右;2020年,低碳能源发电量比例有望提高至29%～43%,核电装机比例能达到5%左右;在2010～2015年期间,清洁能源发电装机增量将首次超过煤电装机增量。     

中国发展低碳经济的承诺

<正>中国将进一步把应对气候变化纳入经济社会发展规划,并继续采取强有力的措施。一是加强节能、提高能效工作。二是大力发展可再生能源和核能,争取到2020年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15%左右。三是大力增加森林碳     

我国经济发展与能源消费关系实证研究

根据自然资源消费生命周期理论、产业结构多元化指数和能源消费结构多元化指数,本文研究了中国能源消费与经济发展变化趋势,分析了中国能源消费和经济发展之间的相互关系。主要结论包括:(1)1953～1990年期间,能源消费和经济增长变化呈现正相关关系,能源是驱动经济发展的主要因素;1990年后,经济的发展不仅是能源驱动,而且是能源和其他驱动因素共同作用的结果;(2)我国能源、煤炭、石油消费强度变化趋势都呈现倒“U”字型规律;1958～1975年期间,能源消费的强度变化和GDP的产出呈现不对称性;(3)一次能源消费增长对我国产业结构的变化影响非常显著;(4)不同发展阶段,能源消费结构的变化对能源消费强度变化影响不同。     

世界能源消费现状和可再生能源发展趋势(上)

1 世界和中国能源消费现状和趋势 据美国能源部能源情报署(EIA)完成的<国际能源展望2004>基准状态预测,世界能源消费在24年内(2001～2025年)将增加54%,全球能源消费总量预计将从2001年的4.3×1017千焦增加到2025年6.8×1017千焦.图1示明全球各种一次能源消费及预测.     

Humankind’s detour toward sustainability: past,present, and future of renewable energies and electric power generation

Renewable energies have been the primary energy source in the history of the human race. During the last 200 years, industrialized countries have shifted their energy consumption toward fossil fuels. Contemporary electric power generation is based on non-renewable resources such as oil, coal, and nuclear power. New efficient and cost-effective small-scale renewable energy generation options are commercially available today. Market distortions are to be overcome in order to make renewable energies cost-competitive in today’s economic environment. Social, environmental and also economic reasons will reverse the worldwide primary energy use back to renewables and thus reapproach a sustainable economic system based on traditional and new high-tech technologies.     

Renewable energy for sustainable electrical energy system in India

Present trends of electrical energy supply and demand are not sustainable because of the huge gap between demand and supply in foreseeable future in India. The path towards sustainability is exploitation of energy conservation and aggressive use of renewable energy systems. Potential of renewable energy technologies that can be effectively harnessed would depend on future technology developments and breakthrough in cost reduction. This requires adequate policy guidelines and interventions in the Indian power sector. Detailed MARKAL simulations, for power sector in India, show that full exploitation of energy conservation potential and an aggressive implementation of renewable energy technologies lead to sustainable development. Coal and other fossil fuel (gas and oil) allocations stagnated after the year 2015 and remain constant up to 2040. After the year 2040, the requirement for coal and gas goes down and carbon emissions decrease steeply. By the year 2045, 25% electrical energy can be supplied by renewable energy and the CO₂ emissions can be reduced by 72% as compared to the base case scenario.     

我国亟需尽快启动快堆核能系统的技术开发

本文概述核能对保障我国能源安全从而促进国民经济可持续发展的重要作用,指出我国的压水堆核电技术从第二代向第三代发展,总体上可以说是“今天”核电产业的技术升级工程。快堆及其燃料闭合循环可以充分利用铀资源和实现核废物的最少化,从而保证核裂变能的可持续发展。作者强调,我国核能科技的发展战略不仅要重视“今天”的核电产业的技术升级,更应着眼于“明天”的核能产业的技术开发。尽快启动我国快堆核能系统的技术开发具有极其重要的战略意义。     

Potential of renewable hydrogen production for energy supply in Hong Kong

Hong Kong is highly vulnerable to energy and economic security due to the heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels. The combustion of fossil fuels also causes serious environmental pollution. Therefore, it is important to explore the opportunities for clean renewable energy for long-term energy supply. Hong Kong has the potential to develop clean renewable hydrogen energy to improve the environmental performance. This paper reviews the recent development of hydrogen production technologies, followed by an overview of the renewable energy sources and a discussion about potential applications for renewable hydrogen production in Hong Kong. The results show that although renewable energy resources cannot entirely satisfy the energy demand in Hong Kong, solar energy, wind power, and biomass are available renewable sources for significant hydrogen production. A system consisting of wind turbines and photovoltaic (PV) panels coupled with electrolyzers is a promising design to produce hydrogen. Biomass, especially organic waste, offers an economical, environmental-friendly way for renewable hydrogen production. The achievable hydrogen energy output would be as much as 40% of the total energy consumption in transportation.     

Alternatives to OPEC oil: Investment costs and financing prospects

Alternative forms of energy will have to supply an increasing share of the world market, in view of the restricted supply of OPEC oil. The prospects for the alternatives depend on their investment costs relative to the expected price of OPEC oil, and on oil demand, which will be affected by conservation. A wide variety of projects are going forward for the development of non-OPEC oil, gas, coal and nuclear power, as well as renewable energy resources. Investment costs and the demand for external finance are within the capacity of world financial markets.     

对我国风电发展战略的冷思考

我国风电发展迅速,计划2010年风电装机容量要达到3500×10^4kW,2020年达到1.5×10^8kW。据IEA预测,2030年世界能源供应仍以化石能源为主,其比重由2006年的80.8%下降到80.4%;2030年世界发电能源结构也以化石能源发电为主,其比重由2006年的74%下降到73%。中国到21世纪中叶传统化石能源仍将居绝对优势地位。因此在可再生能源和新能源的开发过程中,不要急于求成,片面追求能源和电源结构优化不可取。我国未来要依靠核电和新能源发电,但需要通过对其技术经济的进一步研究,才能确定主要靠核电还是风电、太阳能发电或生物质能发电。目前我国风电发展的主要问题是对风电的技术要求起点低,技术路线不对,从国外引进了落后的风电技术。为了我国风电的健康发展,必须加快风电合理利用的研究,包括风电储能和风电直接利用的研究。     

The achievement,significance and future prospect of China's renewable energy initiative

China's high-speed economic growth and ambitious urbanization depend heavily on the massive consumption of fossil fuel. However, the over-dependence on the depleting fossil fuels causes severe environmental problems, making China the largest energy consumer and the biggest CO₂ emitter in the world. Faced with significant challenges in terms of managing its environment and moving forward with the concept of sustainable economic development, the Chinese government plans to move away from fossil fuels and rely on renewables such as hydropower, wind power, solar power, biomass power and nuclear power. In this paper, the current status of China's renewable energy deployment and the ongoing development projects are summarized and discussed. Most recent developments of major renewable energy sources are clearly reviewed. Additionally, the renewable energy development policies including laws and regulations, economic encouragement, technical research and development are also summarized. This study showcases China's achievements in exploiting its abundant domestic renewable energy sources to meet the future energy demand and reducing carbon emissions. To move toward a low carbon society, technological progress and policy improvements are needed for improving grid access (wind), securing nuclear fuel supplies and managing safety protocols (nuclear), integrating supply chains to achieve indigenous manufacture of technologies across supply chains (solar). Beyond that, a preliminary prediction of the development of China's future renewable energy developments, and proposes targeted countermeasures and suggestions are proposed. The proposal involves developing smart-grid system, investing on renewable energy research, improving the feed-in tariff system and clarifying the subsidy system.     

Governmental policy and prospect in electricity production from renewables in Lithuania

In Lithuania, the generation of electricity is based on the nuclear energy and on the fossil fuels. After the decommissioning of Ignalina nuclear power plant in 2009, the Lithuanian Power Plant and other thermal plants will become the major sources of electricity. Consequently, the Lithuanian power sector must focus on the implementation of renewable energy projects, penetration of new technologies and on consideration of the future opportunities for renewables, and Government policy for promoting this kind of energy. Production of electricity from renewable energy is based on hydro, biomass and wind energy resources in Lithuania. Due to the typical climatic condition in Lithuania the solar photovoltaics and geothermal energy are not used for power sector. Moreover, the further development of hydropower plants is limited by environmental restrictions, therefore priority is given to wind energy development and installation of new biomass power plants. According to the requirements set out in the Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 September 2001 on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market [Official Journal L283, 33–40, 27 October 2001], 7% of gross consumption of electricity will be generated from renewable energy by 2010 in Lithuania. The aim of this paper is to show the estimation of the maximum renewable power penetration in the Lithuanian electricity sector and possible environmental impact.     

The sustainability indicators of power production systems

One of the most important elements of economical and social development is to provide uninterrupted electric energy to consumers. The increasing world population and technological developments rapidly increase the demand on electric energy. In order to meet the increasing demand for sustainable development, it is necessary to use the consumable resources of the world in the most productive manner and minimum level and to keep its negative effects on human health and environment in the lowest level as much as possible. In this study, alignment of hydrogen fuel cells, hydroelectric, wind, solar and geothermal sourced electric energy systems, in addition to fossil fueled coal, natural gas and nuclear power plants, in respect to sustainability parameters such as CO₂ emission, land use, energy output, fresh water consumption and environmental and social effects is researched. Consequently, it has been determined that the wind and nuclear energy power plants have the highest sustainability indicators. The fuel cells that use hydrogen obtained by using coal and natural gas are determined as the most disadvantageous transformation technologies in respect to sustainability. This study contains an alignment related to today's technologies. Using of renewable energy resources especially in production of hydrogen, output increases to be ensured with nanotechnology applications in photovoltaic systems may change this alignment.     

The promise of clean energy

The world's energy system is at least a 1.5 trillion dollars market dominated by fossil fuels, where small changes can have a large influence on efforts to reach sustainability. Renewable energy sources are key to achieving this goal. Excluding traditional biomass, in 2001 renewables represented 4.4% of primary energy consumption, unevenly distributed between developed and developing countries. Environmental problems at local, regional and global levels, as well as external dependency and security of supply will persist if we rely on an energy future based on fossil fuels. Solutions encompass extending the life of fossil fuel reserves and expanding the share of renewable in the world energy system through top down and bottom up policies, described in this paper.