我国实施洪水保险初探

在简要讨论国内外洪水保险发展概况的基础上，分析了当前我国洪水保险存在的主要问题，提出了我国实施洪水保险的初步构想．主要包括制定《国家洪水保险计划》、成立开展洪水保险的专职机构和制订实施洪水保险相关法规三个方面的内容，建议在我国尽快实施洪水保险。     

调水工程冰坝洪水风险保险利益相关者演化博弈分析

冰坝洪水风险是威胁寒区调水工程冬季输水安全与效益的重要风险之一，而保险是风险经济压力转移的重要手段，因此有必要探讨调水工程冰坝洪水风险保险业务的可实施路径。通过剖析调水工程冰坝洪水风险多利益主体特性，构建演化博弈模型，并进行理论解求解和参数影响特性分析，有针对性地提出推行冰坝洪水风险保险的相关建议。研究结果表明，从工程管理单位、沿线周边利益主体和保险企业三方演化博弈角度，最优演化稳定策略为投基本险、投附加险、承保；增加保费或减少赔付额能加快模型演化速度；减小冰坝洪水发生概率和风险损失高于免赔率概率有利于模型向稳定策略演化；增大各方利益主体策略选择概率，均能缩短模型趋于稳定策略的时间，且保险企业承保概率增大对模型演化速度提升效率最高。     

风险模型在洪水保险理赔中的对比研究

运用保险精算学原理，以我国典型蓄滞洪区为研究对象，建立了确定洪水保险损失的短期个别风险模型与短期聚合风险模型，对保险标的分洪损失及蓄滞洪区的运用几率进行定量研究，从而计算出保险公司在一定时期内可能发生的理赔总量的分布情况；并应用实例分析了两个模型间的关系。为确定不同区域风险损失、保险费率的厘定及保险经营的稳定性提供依据。     

无赔款优待模型及其在洪水保险中的应用

针对我国防洪的实际需要、完善洪灾补偿和救助制度,采用洪水保险制度取代蓄滞洪区运用补偿制度是必然的趋势。为了避免洪水易发区试行洪水保险小额理赔的发生,降低索赔成本、管理费用及保险费,增强保险人的竞争力及对被保险人的吸引力,引用保险精算技术中的无赔款优待模型研究了灾后保户索赔时的转移概率矩阵、保单分布状况及安全偿还费。     

防洪基金问题的研究

在研究防洪基金与洪水保险之间关系的基础上，指出防洪基金的建立可以弥补洪水保险中存在的缺陷，加强防洪能力。防洪基金应由国家各级政府及防洪保护区内的受益者共同负担，据此，应用数学优化方法建立了防洪基金模型以确定受益者应缴纳的防洪保护费率。     

防洪减灾经济学初探

尝试建立防洪减灾经济学这一崭新学科，在阐明防洪减灾的地区性公共品的经济学特性的基础上，利用博弈论模型研究了现有的防洪减灾机制。发现了其机制上的缺陷，为此，提出了防洪林木产权交易和洪水保险等新机制，并进行了博弈研究，考察了这些机制的均衡结果和条件，为更有效地防洪减灾提出了机制上的建议。     

垣曲抽水蓄能电站设计洪水分析

设计洪水分析是抽水蓄能电站工程设计的关键内容之一,以垣曲抽水蓄能电站为例,根据我国现行设计洪水理论,利用相关水文资料,结合历史调查洪水成果,分别采用水文比拟法、瞬时单位线法、推理公式法、经验公式法计算该电站坝址设计洪水,综合比较最终选择水文比拟法作为设计洪水结果,并利用地区综合法进行合理性检验。结果表明,垣曲抽水蓄能电站设计洪水符合区域暴雨洪水特性,研究结果可为山西省小流域设计洪水分析提供重要参考价值。     

基于系统聚类的分水江站水位分类预报和区间预报

研究分水江流域控制站——分水江站的水位预报方法，提高预报精度，对支撑区域防洪决策具有重要意义。利用分水江站2012～2020年典型历史洪水，基于系统聚类分析方法，以最大1 d洪量、洪峰流量、洪峰水位、洪水起涨历时占比作为聚类指标，将洪水分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ类两类洪水，采用流量演算—水位流量关系转换法对分水江站进行水位分类预报，并构建不同类型洪水水位流量关系的上下边界，提出一种分类洪水水位区间预报方法。结果表明，两类洪水的洪峰水位预报精度有所提高，预报区间宽度明显减小，提高了区间预报结果的可利用性。     

基于I-MED模型的水电工程施工洪水频率分析

施工洪水的概率分布作为水电工程施工导流设计的理论基础，不应被固定为某一个模式，因此探索新的理论模型在施工洪水频率分析中的应用具有重要意义。先基于改进最大熵分布(I-MED)原理推导了施工洪水洪峰概率密度函数表达式，并提出通过求解多维非线性最优化问题获取概率密度函数的关键参数；然后通过与传统水文概率分布进行均方根误差和拟合优度值的评比来优选概率分布；最后对金沙江上游YBT高拱坝进行应用分析。结果表明，I-MED模型的分布拟合效果较传统洪峰流量拟合分布类型更优，比我国规范推荐的P-Ⅲ型分布略优；相比于P-Ⅲ型分布，其施工洪水设计值较小，导流工程设计具有一定的优化空间。研究结果为水电工程施工洪水频率分析提供了新的途径。     

黄河洪水资源化及其保障措施

黄河水资源的紧迫形势要求必须多视角、全方位寻求开源、节流措施，洪水资源化能起到意想不到的开源效果。根据对黄河洪水特性的认识和对洪水资源化的理解，探讨了黄河洪水资源化途径及其保障措施。     

Price floors for emissions trading

Price floors in greenhouse gas emissions trading schemes can guarantee minimum abatement efforts if prices are lower than expected, and they can help manage cost uncertainty, possibly as complements to price ceilings. Provisions for price floors are found in several recent legislative proposals for emissions trading. Implementation however has potential pitfalls. Possible mechanisms are government commitments to buy back permits, a reserve price at auction, or an extra fee or tax on acquittal of emissions permits. Our analysis of these alternatives shows that the fee approach has budgetary advantages and is more compatible with international permit trading than the alternatives. It can also be used to implement more general hybrid approaches to emissions pricing.     

European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments

We assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant operating in a carbon-constrained environment. We consider two sources of risk, namely the price of emission allowance and the price of the electricity output. First we analyse the performance of the EU market for CO₂ emission allowances. Specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period (2008 to 2012) and calibrate the underlying parameters of the allowance price process. Then we refer to the Spanish wholesale electricity market and calibrate the parameters of the electricity price process.We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice to derive the optimal investment rule. In particular, we obtain the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the effect of changes in several variables on these critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy.We conclude that, at current permit prices, immediate installation does not seem justified from a financial point of view. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically, carbon capture technology undergoes significant improvements, and/or a specific governmental policy to promote these units is adopted.     

Extracting the resource rent from the CDM projects: Can the Chinese Government do better?

The revenue generated from a CDM project in China will be shared by the government and the project owner, and is also subject to the corporate income tax. This paper studies the impacts of the revenue sharing policy and income tax on the CDM market. The economic model presented in this paper shows that higher-cost CDM projects will be more affected by the CDM policies than lower-cost projects. In addition, the majority of CERs will be generated from lower-cost projects. This kind of distribution of CERs across different types of CDM projects, which is in line with the current picture of the CDM market in China, is not consistent with the goal of sustainable development. A simulation shows that a type-by-type tax/fee scheme would be more effective in assisting sustainable development than the current CDM policies. The study also suggests the government use negative tax/fee with the type-by-type scheme to subsidize the CDM projects that generate large sustainability benefits but would otherwise not be developed due to high costs. If all of the revenue from the CDM is recycled, it is estimated that CERs generation will increase by 98.28 MtC, mainly from the CDM projects that have substantial sustainability benefits for the host country.     

径流式防洪水利枢纽超蓄安全性分析及处理方式

径流式防洪控制水利枢纽因防洪任务进行超蓄,在正常淹没范围以上的临时淹没会对水库的生态环境、库区居民的生命财产带来较大影响并导致安全隐患,所以需分析临时淹没的安全性,以此来探讨此类水利枢纽对于防洪超蓄引起临时淹没问题的处理方式,为当地政府制定相关政策法规提供理论依据。以广东省径流式高陂水利枢纽工程为例,通过面积比法、逐段试算法推算出高陂水利枢纽超蓄时临时淹没高程范围,然后在高程范围内利用层次分析法分析库周内安全性,确定水土流失因素、避洪点建设因素及单位面积人口因素对超蓄防洪安全影响较大,提出了相应的防治措施。