试论石油安全预警法律机制的构建

经济保持高速增长的现代社会，越来越离不开对能源消费的依赖。中国在经济高速发展的同时，对于各种能源的需求增长迅速，尤其是石油能源由原来的基本自给，转向于依赖进口。能源安全是一个国家能源的生产、供应能否满足经济发展和社会生活需要，能否保持社会稳定，关乎民众生产、生活延续的重要问题。石油作为现代能源体系中最重要的能源，被称作“工业的血液”，石油安全是能源安全的重中之重，必须引起足够的重视。     

中国对能源转型的引领、风险演化及应对思路

近10年来,受经济增长速度减缓等因素的影响,全球能源需求放缓,但能源结构却在加快调整,在需求放缓和结构调整中,中国和美国都起到了重要作用。美国能源转向天然气,能源自给率上升,美国将通过石油美元加强对全球能源转型的影响,为了维持其能源地位,美国也许成为影响世界能源最终向可再生能源转型的阻力。英国与德国等欧洲国家虽然是低碳经济和能源转型的发源国,但是其经济体量和能源规模小,对全球能源转型的推动力有限。中国结束以煤为主的高速发展,转向高质量的发展,中国能源转型的方向对全球的影响将是引领性的。能源转型会造成能源安全风险的演化,主要表现在非传统安全问题上,但同时也会促进能源合作,气候变化问题和网络安全问题将增加能源合作的基础。能源安全是国家安全的重要组成部分。制定中国新时代的能源安全战略要有新的思路。用国家总体安全观解决好能源安全问题,用战略思维处理国际能源关系,用系统思维处理新能源与传统能源的关系,用底线思维考虑能源安全战略措施。     

全球能源格局变化及对中国能源安全的挑战

进入21世纪以来,拉美和非洲的石油储产量大幅增长,石油供应向多极化方向发展,石油消费重心正在转向产油国和发展中国家.2000～2011年全球天然气产量增长了35.7％,北美和欧洲天然气探明储量增长居全球领先水平,天然气消费普遍增长.发达国家仍然是能源投资的主体,但同时发展中国家的能源投资也快速增长,发展中国家对煤炭和石油的投资比例均高于发达国家,而发达国家对天然气和电力等清洁能源的投资比例超过了发展中国家.欧美引领着新能源的发展,但由于中国和印度的拉动,亚洲地区有可能成为全球新能源中心.气候变化问题使能源安全的内涵扩展到对环境的影响.此外,中东的石油和天然气消费增速位居全球第一,未来可能会影响对其他地区的出口.世界能源格局的变化使中国能源安全面临一系列新的挑战.首先,作为全球最大的能源消费国,维护全球能源安全是中国的不二选择;其次,维护海外投资利益已成为中国构建新的国际关系的重要考量;第三,需要重新考虑与发达国家和发展中国家的能源外交;另外,如何在国际舞台上发挥主导作用、以何种政治姿态影响和参与全球能源治理,以及如何与周边国家及欧美等国解决能源争端、领土争端和贸易争端,是我国面临的又一挑战.中国要注重能源大国在能源安全中的作用,有区别地与具有不同能源安全利益诉求的国家开展能源外交,在全球能源对话中要积极倡导能源贸易“去政治化”,提出既有利于世界能源安全又有利于我国能源安全的新理念.     

构建全球合作背景下的中国能源外交方略

能源与能源安全问题是事关我国可持续发展战略的一个十分重要的问题,能否获得稳定的能源供应,确保国家能源安全,将直接影响到我国经济社会发展前景。当前国际形势日益错综复杂,使这一问题显得更加尖锐。本文详细分析了中国能源外交所面临的新形势,指出了中国能源外交战略中的困惑与不足之处,并提出了构建全球合作背景下中国能源外交战略的一些建议。     

美国可再生能源发展现状和经验分析

<正>目前,世界各国都在积极探索未来能源转型发展路线,加快开发利用可再生能源已成为世界各国的普遍共识和一致行动。大力发展可再生能源不仅能够减少对传统能源的依赖,还能减少二氧化碳等有害气体和有害物质的排放。在全球有害气体排放量中美国位居第三,仅次于中国和印度。为破解可再生能源发展瓶颈问题,美国政府推出了一系列能源战略和政策。美国是世界上第一个制定能源安全战略的国家,能源安全战略包括四项基本原则:节约能源、完善机制、灵活的财政     

新年致辞

<正>2014年,世界能源界面临能源安全与环境安全的严峻挑战,经历了大国博弈引发的地缘政治格局重塑和资源国的政局动荡,美国页岩革命成功导致的能源独立正在深刻影响国际能源供需格局,在诸多因素的综合作用下,全球油气市场更加宽松,油价由稳中有降转向大幅下跌。展望未来,能源安全充满变数,环境安全更趋严峻,多种因素的此消彼长将形成世界石油市场的新常态,供需维持宽松态势,供需基本面不支持油价走     

新形势下我国能源安全的现状及未来战略调整

由于国内外能源形势的变化,使得我国以保障能源供应安全为核心的传统能源安全观需要向综合能源安全观转变,能源安全的重心也应由保供应、稳价格转向实现能源转型方面。本文探讨了国内外能源环境改变的背景下,我国能源安全的现状以及未来面临的机遇和挑战,并就未来我国能源战略调整的重点和方向提出了建议。     

德国加速发展太阳能和风能

<正>德国被视为全球能源转型的先锋,德国太阳能和风能达到峰值,可再生能源提供了87.%的能源需求,创造了历史性的纪录。德国是经济大国也是能源大国,然而德国的能源严重依赖进口,为保障能源安全是推进德国大力发展可再生能     

我国能源高质量发展的目标和实施路径研究

近年来,越来越多的能源问题凸显而且严重影响了能源及经济的发展。本文主要以中国能源发展的现状为切入点,通过认清高质量发展的内涵及我国能源发展的主要问题和机遇,确定了我国能源高质量发展的三个主要目标:建设清洁低碳的绿色产业体系;打造清洁低碳、经济高效、安全可靠的现代能源系统;构建现代能源治理体系,同时通过分析明确了三大体系之间的关系。然后在此基础上得到了我国能源高质量发展的实施路径,探究如何攻坚克难,推动能源转型和能源的高质量发展,保障能源安全,优化能源结构,建立清洁低碳、安全高效的现代能源体系。     

"能源转型"意味着什么

许多专家呼吁中国“能源转型”,由以煤炭为主的能源结构向多元化能源结构转变;由能源粗放型利用向能源高效利用转变;由直接大量燃用煤炭向煤炭清洁利用转变;由直接管理企业向市场引导企业转变。为此,必须建立综合能源战略,转变职能,完善能源法规政策和市场监督机制。     

Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002–2022

Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002–2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine ‘viability’, the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector.     

The coming sustainable energy transition: History,strategies, and outlook

Facing global climate change and scarce petroleum supplies, the world must switch to sustainable energy systems. While historical transitions between major energy sources have occurred, most of these shifts lasted over a century or longer and were stimulated by resource scarcity, high labor costs, and technological innovations. The energy transition of the 21st century will need to be more rapid. Unfortunately, little is known about how to accelerate energy transitions. This article reviews past transitions and factors behind them, along with their time frames. Three modern case studies are discussed: Brazil, which shifted from an oil-based transportation system to one based on sugarcane-ethanol (success); France, which shifted from oil-fired electric power to nuclear power (success); and the United States, which attempted to shift from foreign oil to a mix of domestic energy resources (failure). Lessons from these attempts to govern energy transitions are discussed. Several policy instruments to accelerate a transition are identified, though even under ideal circumstances a global energy supply transition will be very slow. Given the need to simultaneously implement programs in countries with different political economies, a greater focus on energy efficiency, promotion of Smart Grids, and possibly a new treaty should yield more timely results.     

Global energy security and the implications for the EU

The following article will analyse the global and geopolitical dimensions of the future international energy security and its implications for Europe and the EU-27. In this context, I will discuss to which extent the EU's newly proclaimed “Energy Action Plan” of the EU Spring summit of 2007 and its declared common energy (foreign) policy are a sufficient strategy to cope with the new global and geopolitical challenges. The article concludes the following: (1) The interlinkage between globally designed traditional energy security concepts – that rely just on economic factors and “market-strategies” – and domestic as well as regional political stability demands new thinking with regard to both energy supply security and foreign and security policies. (2) Although after the Russian–Ukrainian gas conflict in January 2006, energy security has forced its way up the European energy and foreign policy agendas, the EU-27 member states have largely failed to forge a coherent European energy security and energy foreign policy strategy after their Spring summit of 2007 because its declared political solidarity has been still lacking. But the 2nd Strategic Energy Review of November 2008 has recommended new initiatives to overcome this lack by promoting concrete infrastructure and other projects for enhancing Europe's supply security and its political solidarity as part of a common energy (foreign) policy. If the EU is able to implement the March 2007 and November 2008 decisions, the EU oil and gas demand will drastically reduce and freeze at current levels. In this case, Putin's energy policies by using Russia's energy resources and pipeline monopolies as a political instrument to enforce its economic and geopolitical interests will be proved as self-defeating in Russia's long-term strategic interests. It will reduce Gazprom's gas exports to a much smaller EU gas market than originally forecasted as the result of a deliberate EU policy of decreasing its overall gas demand and by diversifying its gas imports.     

Evaluating energy security in the Asia-Pacific region: A novel methodological approach

This paper establishes an ‘energy security assessment instrument’ based on a new and expanded conceptualisation of energy security. The instrument is a systematic interrogative tool for evaluating energy security of individual states or regions. It consists of eleven broad energy security dimensions associated with the current global energy system. These energy security dimensions take into account numerous quantitative and qualitative attributes of each country’s energy security and policy, and include both traditional energy security concerns and many new factors, such as environmental, socio-cultural and technological. Another dimension, largely absent from previous analyses, is the existence of, and the issues addressed in, energy security policy in each country. This instrument serves as an assessment system with which to evaluate energy security in the Asia-Pacific region. The existing studies on energy security in the Asia-Pacific region suffer from serious limitations. No study to date examines regional energy security policies by adopting a more comprehensive energy security definition as a starting point. Most studies also focus on a single country or issue. Even if they examine energy security in major regional economies, they lack critical comparative analysis. The instrument is valuable as it may be utilised to draw a comprehensive map of regional energy security situation, which can also include comparative analysis of energy security characteristics across the Asia-Pacific region. Ultimately, it may be utilised to set up a framework for improved regional energy cooperation with the aim of providing regional leaders with a blueprint for improving regional energy security and policy.     

Securing energy equity

Addressing energy poverty rather than energy equity conveniently evades the problem of the gap in energy consumption per capita in the developed and developing world. For energy security policies to adequately address energy poverty it requires a widening of scope from national to global. This is a comment to the forthcoming presentation of IEA's proposition for a new architecture for financing universal modern energy access to be presented at the conference ‘Energy for all—Financing access for the poor’ held in Oslo in October 2011.     

China's Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments in overseas energy: The energy security perspective

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are state-owned investment funds that invest in real and financial assets. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, SWFs' investments have resulted in national security concerns of host countries because SWFs continue to expand rapidly and have become increasingly active in real-time strategic transactions. Given this background, China, which has the biggest SWF in the world, is facing severe challenges of energy resources shortages while its plan is to accomplish social and economic development goals. Energy security is a key driving force of the energy investment policy of China's SWFs. This makes the SWF investments more complicated and more politically sensitive. The combination of sovereign rights and the strategic importance of energy also makes geopolitics more complicated and brings more uncertainty to SWF investments. This article explores the relationship between energy security and energy investments of China's SWFs. It is recognised that the energy investment of SWFs must follow a sustainable path to coordinate energy security, economic growth, return on investment and national security concerns. Government policymakers are urged to balance the financial and political returns on SWFs against potential negative effects. The conclusion presents insights for policymakers, energy scholars and SWF researchers.     

Energy,economy and development (EED) triangle: Concerns for India

In this paper we discuss issues involving energy security with economic growth and development that brings out (i) the dimension of physical security alternative, (ii) framework for a pan South East Asian platform to support energy security and (iii) requirement of promoting regional energy cooperation and specific energy peace initiatives. Sustaining projected economic growth rate coupled with energy security in future is a concern for all developing countries like India. The energy security of these nations is threatened by the disruption of energy supplies by ongoing energy terrorism and geopolitical conflicts in the region. India's geo-strategic position and increasing energy dependence raises concerns for its energy security. We discuss energy security, examine factors and approaches to attempt the energy security in the light of economic growth and development.     

Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature

Twenty-first century access to energy sources depends on a complex system of global markets, vast cross-border infrastructure networks, a small group of primary energy suppliers, and interdependencies with financial markets and technology. This is the context in which energy security has risen high on the policy agenda of governments around the world and the term ‘energy security’ has quietly slipped into the energy lexicon. The limited discourse about the nature of the term or its underlying assumptions has been totally eclipsed by an almost overwhelming focus on securing supplies of primary energy sources and geopolitics. An examination of explicit and inferred definitions finds that the concept of energy security is inherently slippery because it is polysemic in nature, capable of holding multiple dimensions and taking on different specificities depending on the country (or continent), timeframe or energy source to which it is applied. This ‘slipperiness’ poses analytical, prediction and policy difficulties but if explicitly recognised through definitional clarity, new levels of understanding will enrich the policy debate to deal with obstacles impacting on the constantly evolving nature of energy security.     

中国主权财富基金与国家能源安全研究

主权财富基金的兴起是20世纪90年代初石油价格暴增导致的商品价格的上升和全球收支失衡的直接结果。主权财富基金从建立之初,就隐含着保证国家发展的稳定性和安全性的动机。基于国家安全的战略目的,中国的主权财富基金在能源领域的投资倾向越来越明显。由于能源具有战略属性,对能源的投资一方面为保证我国的能源安全提供了一种解决的途径,另一方面,也引发了其他国家对于地缘性政治战略的敏感反映。各国对于主权财富对重要能源的投资均有不同程度的限制,这在一定程度上使得能源市场更加复杂,对能源安全产生了不利影响。本文初步探讨了我国主权财富基金在能源领域的投资对我国的能源安全的影响,并给出相关建议。     

Social construction and physical nihilation of the Keystone XL pipeline: Lessons from international relations theory

If a prime goal of energy policy is to achieve energy security, why is there a controversy over the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, designed to deliver new supplies of oil from within North America? This Viewpoint seeks answers in the debate over the underlying purposes of energy policy: how does one answers the question “what do we want from energy policy?” Perceptions of feasible answers and policy options change over time, as witnessed in the 1970s. Analogous shifts in opinion are changing today's policy debates and widening the contradictions in policy purposes. Attention to the existence of these contradictions, without illusions, is necessary to meet the policy challenges of the future effectively.