The Carbon-tax debate

This paper discusses recent topics related indirectly to energy production and marketing and related highly to energy policy and economy. These topics are: (1) background to carbon taxes including environmental issues — global warming and CO₂ emissions, fuel substitution and the encouragement of non-hydrocarbon fuel use; (2) climate-change convention and related conferences including those at Rio de Janeiro — objectives and achievements, and Kyoto-objectives; (3) carbon-tax proposals, including implications for oil, coal and gas: (4) The OECD view including evolution of general taxes on hydrocarbons, the carbon tax as a government revenue-raising objective, CO₂ emissions in the OECD; (5) the oil-producer's view including discrimination against oil, the impact on the incentives to use oil and gas; (6) the developing countries' view, including the need to increase fuel use for industrialisation, financial constraints on energy use, and CO₂ emissions in the developing countries.     

Integrated resource planning in the power sector and economy-wide changes in environmental emissions

This paper analyzes the roles of key factors (i.e., changes in structure, fuel mix and final demand) on total economy-wide changes in CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x emissions when power sector development follows the integrated resource planning (IRP) approach instead of traditional supply-based electricity planning (TEP). It also considers the rebound effect (RE) of energy efficiency improvements in the demand side and analyzes the sensitivity of the results to variations in the values of the RE. A framework is developed to decompose the total economy-wide change in the emission of a pollutant into four major components, i.e., structural change-, fuel mix- , final demand- and joint-effects. The final demand effect is further decomposed into three categories, i.e., construction of power plants, electricity final demand and final demand related to electricity using equipments. The factor decomposition framework is then applied in the case of the power sector in Indonesia. A key finding in the case of Indonesia is that in the absence of the RE, there would be total economy-wide reductions in CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x emissions of 431, 1.6 and 1.3 million tons respectively during the planning horizon of 2006–2025 under IRP as compared to that under TEP. The decomposition analysis shows that the final demand effect would account for 38% of the total CO₂ emission reduction followed by the structural change effect (35.1%) and fuel mix effect (27.6%) while the joint effect is negligible. The study also shows that economy-wide CO₂ emission reduction due to IRP considering the RE of 45% would be 241 million tons as compared to 333 million tons when the RE is 25%.     

Short-term impact of green certificates and CO2 emissions trading in the Swedish district heating sector

Swedish district-heating (DH) systems use a wide range of energy sources and technologies for heat-and-power generation. This provides the DH utilities with major flexibility in changing their fuel and technology mix when the economic conditions for generation change. Two recently introduced policy instruments have changed the DH utilities’ costs for generation considerably; the tradable green-certificate (TGC) scheme introduced in 2003 in Sweden, and the tradable greenhouse-gas emission permit (TEP) scheme introduced in the EU on January 1, 2005. The objective of this study is to analyse how these two trading schemes impact on the operation of the Swedish DH sector in terms of changes in CHP generation, CO₂ emissions, and operating costs. The analysis was carried out by comparing the most cost-effective operation for the DH utilities, with and without, the two trading schemes applied, using a model that handles the Swedish DH-sector system-by-system. It was found that the volume of renewable power generated in CHP plants only increased slightly owing to the TGC scheme. The TGC and the TEP schemes in force together, however, nearly doubled the renewable power-generation. CO₂ emissions from the DH sector may either increase or decrease depending on the combination of TGC and TEP prices. The overall CO₂ emissions from the European power-generation sector would, however, be reduced for all price combinations assuming that increased Swedish CHP generation replaces coal-condensing power (coal-fired plants with power generation only) in other European countries. The trading schemes also lower the operational costs of the DH sector since the cost increase owing to the use of more expensive fuels and the purchase of TEPs is outweighed by the increased revenues from sales of electricity and TGCs.     

An energy development strategy for the USSR Minimizing greenhouse gas emissions

The second largest national consumer of commercial energy in the world, the USSR also emits large quantities of energy-related CO₂. This study uses four long-term scenarios of energy use and related emissions to investigate opportunities for reducing the USSR's greenhouse gas emissions over the next 30 years. This paper shows that if no measures are taken to control these emissions, CO₂ and methane will increase by 1.5 to 2 times the 1990 level by the year 2020. However, this growth can be restrained dramatically through structural changes in the Soviet economy, improved energy efficiency and interfuel substitutions. Abating emissions of carbon in the USSR would entail the widespread implementation of energy policies and, for more substantial reductions, higher investments from the Soviet economy. Achieving these goals would also require broad support from the international community.     

Policies to reduce energy use and carbon emissions in the UK

The UK differs from may other industrialized nations in that its carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from energy use have declined in recent years despite relatively rapid economic growth. In all sectors but transport, substantial reductions have already occurred in the level of carbon emissions per unit of GDP output. At the same time, a number of official and unofficial studies have pointed out that the UK has one of the largest remaining potentials amongst comparable industrialized countries for achieving further CO₂ reductions through the implementation of cost-effective energy efficiency and fuel switching measures. This paper discusses past and present patterns of energy use and carbons emissions in the UK. The analysis then examines historical trends in UK energy policy and presents policy options for further reducing the UK's energy-use and carbon emissions in the future.     

China’s pre-2020 CO2 emission reduction potential and its influence

China achieved the reduction of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 45% compared with 2005 at the end of 2017, realizing the commitment at 2009 Copenhagen Conference on emissions reduction 3 years ahead of time. In future implementation of the “13th Five-Year Plan (FYP),” with the decline of economic growth rate, decrease of energy consumption elasticity and optimization of energy structure, the CO₂ intensity of GDP will still have the potential for decreasing before 2020. By applying KAYA Formula decomposition, this paper makes the historical statistics of the GDP energy intensity decrease and CO₂ intensity of energy consumption since 2005, and simulates the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 and its influences on achieving National Determined Contribution (NDC) target in 2030 with scenario analysis. The results show that China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by 52.9%–54.4% than the 2005 level, and will be 22.9%–25.4% lower than 2015. Therefore, it is likely to overfulfill the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 18% proposed in the 13th FYP period. Furthermore, the emission reduction potentiality before 2020 will be conducive to the earlier realization of NDC objectives in 2030. China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2030 will fall by over 70% than that in 2005, and CO₂ emissions peak will appear before 2030 as early as possible. To accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, China needs to make better use of the carbon market, and guide the whole society with carbon price to reduce emissions effectively. At the same time, China should also study the synergy of policy package so as to achieve the target of emission reduction.     

Integrated biomass energy systems and emissions of carbon dioxide

Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the US Department of Energy (DOE) have been funding a number of case studies under the initiative entitled “Economic Development through Biomass Systems Integration”, with the objective of investigate the feasibility of integrated biomass energy systems, utilizing a dedicated feedstock supply system (DFSS) for energy production. This paper deals with the full fuel cycle for four of these case studies, which have been examined with regard to the emissions of carbon dioxide, CO₂. Although the conversion of biomass to electricity in itself does not emit more CO₂ than is captured by the biomass through photosynthesis, there will be some CO₂ emissions from the DFSS. External energy is required for the production and transportation of the biomass feedstock, and this energy is mainly based on fossil fuels. By using this input energy, CO₂ and other greenhouse gases are emitted. However, by utilizing biomass with fossil fuels as external input fuels, we would get about 10–15 times more electric energy per unit fossil fuel, compared with a 100% coal power system. By introducing a DFSS on former farmland the amount of energy spent for production of crops can be reduced, the amount of fertilizers can be decreased, the soil can be improved and a significant amount of energy will be produced compared with an ordinary farm crop. Compared with traditional coal-based electricity production, the CO₂ emissions are in most cases reduced significantly by as much as 95%. The important conclusion is the great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions through the offset of coal by biomass.     

Greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the Sri Lanka power sector supply side and demand side options

Sri Lanka has had a hydropower dominated electricity generation sector for many years with a gradually decreasing percentage contribution from hydroresources. At the same time, the thermal generation share has been increasing over the years. Therefore, the expected fuel mix in the future in the large scale thermal generation system would be dominated by petroleum products and coal. This will result in a gradual increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) and other environmental emissions in the power sector and, hence, require special attention to possible mitigation measures.

This paper analyses both the supply side and demand side (DSM) options available in the Sri Lanka power sector in mitigating emissions in the sector considering the technical feasibility and potential of such options. Further, the paper examines the carbon abatement costs associated with such supply side and DSM interventions using an integrated resource planning model, which is not used in Sri Lanka at present. The sensitivities of the final generation costs and emissions to different input parameters, such as discount rates, fuel prices and capital costs, are also presented in the paper. It is concluded that while some DSM measures are economically attractive as mitigation measures, all the supply side options have a relatively high cost of mitigation, particularly in the context of GHG emission mitigation. Further it is observed that when compared with the projected price of carbon under different global carbon trading scenarios, these supply side options cannot provide economically beneficial CO₂ mitigation in countries like Sri Lanka.     

Atmospheric stabilization of CO2 emissions: Near-term reductions and absolute versus intensity-based targets

This study analyzes CO₂ emissions reduction targets for various countries and geopolitical regions by the year 2030 to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ at 450 ppm (550 ppm including non-CO₂ greenhouse gases) level. It also determines CO₂ intensity cuts that would be required in those countries and regions if the emission reductions were to be achieved through intensity-based targets without curtailing their expected economic growth. Considering that the stabilization of CO₂ concentrations at 450 ppm requires the global trend of CO₂ emissions to be reversed before 2030, this study develops two scenarios: reversing the global CO₂ trend in (i) 2020 and (ii) 2025. The study shows that global CO₂ emissions would be limited at 42 percent above 1990 level in 2030 if the increasing trend of global CO₂ emissions were to be reversed by 2020. If reversing the trend is delayed by 5 years, global CO₂ emissions in 2030 would be 52 percent higher than the 1990 level. The study also finds that to achieve these targets while maintaining expected economic growth, the global average CO₂ intensity would require a 68 percent drop from the 1990 level or a 60 percent drop from the 2004 level by 2030.     

Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China''s electricity sector

With the approach of the year 2012, a new round of international negotiations has energized the entire climate change community. With this, analyses on sector-based emissions reduction and mitigation options will provide the necessary information to form the debate. In order to assess the CO₂ emissions reduction potential of China's electricity sector, this research employs three scenarios based on the “long-range energy alternative planning system” (LEAP) model to simulate the different development paths in this sector. The baseline scenario, the current policy scenario, and the new policy scenario seek to gradually increase the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement. Results imply that energy consumption and CO₂ emission in China's electricity sector will rise rapidly in all scenarios until 2030—triple or quadruple the 2000 level; however, through structural adjustment in China's electricity sector, and through implementing technical mitigation measures, various degrees of abatement can be achieved. These reductions range from 85 to 350 million tons CO₂ per year—figures that correspond to different degrees of cost and investment. Demand side management and circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) (ranked in order) are employed prior to use to realize emissions reduction, followed by supercritical plants and the renovation of conventional thermal power plants. In the long term, nuclear and hydropower will play the dominant role in contributing to emissions reduction. It is also suggested that a “self-restraint” reduction commitment should be employed to help contribute to the reduction of emission intensity, an avenue that is more practical for China in light of its current development phase. Setting the year 2000 as the base year, the intensity reduction target could possibly range from 4.2% to 19.4%, dependent on the implementation effectiveness of various mitigation options.     

Global warming and developing countries: The possibility of a solution by accelerating development

There are concerns that the rapid development of the developing countries will hasten global warming and exacerbate resource problems. That is to say, it is quite possible that we cannot solve the North-South problem while at the same time containing global warming and conserving fossil fuels. But this paper attempts to show that, on the contrary, the fast development of these countries might very well bring about a long-term solution of the global warming problem. A model incorporating development stage theory is built and used to calculate by region the world's economic growth, population growth, energy supply and demand, CO₂ emissions and other items up to the end of the 21st century. Results indicated that if in 2100 world population is about 10 billion (it was 5.1 billion in 1990), world GDP is US$200 trillion (1987 prices; it was US$20 trillion in 1990) and CO₂ emissions are 10 billion tonnes (carbon equivalent; they were 5.8 billion tonnes in 1990), there will be fairly good prospects for solving the North-South, fossil fuel exhaustion and global warming problems. Making this scenario happen will require accelerating development of the developing countries so they quickly join the ranks of the developed countries, expediting the shift to renewable energy in the developed countries by imposing carbon taxes, transferring energy saving technologies from the developed to the developing countries, and other efforts.     

Energy and environment policy integration: The case of energy conservation policies and technologies in Japan

Among the OECD countries, Japan has achieved one of the lowest energy intensities and has been successful in reducing emissions of key air pollutants and CO₂ associated with energy use while maintaining a relatively high rate of economic growth, indicating that in Japan energy and environment policies have been able to address each other effectively. This study shows that in both policy domains, considerable importance was attached to the enhancement of energy conservation. The industrial sector has been the most responsive in reducing energy intensity as well as in controlling pollution. Aided by government fiscal measures, the iron and steel, chemicals and automobile industries have pursued both energy conservation and pollution control through suitable process or product innovation. The recent response to global environment issues shows that both the government and the industrial sector are determined to enhance energy conservation and environmental amelioration through technological innovation, indicating that Japanese technologies will continue to be ‘environmentally competitive’.     

A comparison of electricity and hydrogen production systems with CO2 capture and storage—Part B: Chain analysis of promising CCS options

Promising electricity and hydrogen production chains with CO₂ capture, transport and storage (CCS) and energy carrier transmission, distribution and end-use are analysed to assess (avoided) CO₂ emissions, energy production costs and CO₂ mitigation costs. For electricity chains, the performance is dominated by the impact of CO₂ capture, increasing electricity production costs with 10–40% up to 4.5–6.5 €ct/kWh. CO₂ transport and storage in depleted gas fields or aquifers typically add another 0.1–1 €ct/kWh for transport distances between 0 and 200 km. The impact of CCS on hydrogen costs is small. Production and supply costs range from circa 8 €/GJ for the minimal infrastructure variant in which hydrogen is delivered to CHP units, up to 20 €/GJ for supply to households. Hydrogen costs for the transport sector are between 14 and 16 €/GJ for advanced large-scale coal gasification units and reformers, and over 20 €/GJ for decentralised membrane reformers. Although the CO₂ price required to induce CCS in hydrogen production is low in comparison to most electricity production options, electricity production with CCS generally deserves preference as CO₂ mitigation option. Replacing natural gas or gasoline for hydrogen produced with CCS results in mitigation costs over 100 €/t CO₂, whereas CO₂ in the power sector could be reduced for costs below 60 €/t CO₂ avoided.     

Peak CO2 emission in the region dominated by coal use and heavy chemical industries: a case study of Dezhou city in China

This paper studies the pathways of peaking CO₂ emissions of Dezhou city in China, by employing a bottom-up sector analysis model and considering future economic growth, the adjustment of the industrial structure, and the trend of energy intensity. Two scenarios (a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a CO₂ mitigation scenario (CMS)) are set up. The results show that in the BAU scenario, the final energy consumption will peak at 25.93 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) (16% growth versus 2014) in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the final energy will peak in 2020 at 23.47 Mtce (9% lower versus peak in the BAU scenario). The total primary energy consumption will increase by 12% (BAU scenario) and decrease by 3% (CMS scenario) in 2030, respectively, compared to that in 2014. In the BAU scenario, CO₂ emission will peak in 2025 at 70 million tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂), and subsequently decrease gradually in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the peak has occurred in 2014, and 60 MtCO₂ will be emitted in 2030. Active policies including restructuring the economy, improving energy efficiency, capping coal consumption, and using more low-carbon /carbon free fuel are recommended in Dezhou city peaked CO₂ emission as early as possible.     

Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission intensity between oil-producing and non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries

The need to decompose CO₂ emission intensity is predicated upon the need for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Such analysis enables key variables that instigate CO₂ emission intensity to be identified while at the same time providing opportunities to verify the mitigation and adaptation capacities of countries. However, most CO₂ decomposition analysis has been conducted for the developed economies and little attention has been paid to sub-Saharan Africa. The need for such an analysis for SSA is overwhelming for several reasons. Firstly, the region is amongst the most vulnerable to climate change. Secondly, there are disparities in the amount and composition of energy consumption and the levels of economic growth and development in the region. Thus, a decomposition analysis of CO₂ emission intensity for SSA affords the opportunity to identify key influencing variables and to see how they compare among countries in the region. Also, attempts have been made to distinguish between oil and non-oil-producing SSA countries. To this effect a comparative static analysis of CO₂ emission intensity for oil-producing and non oil-producing SSA countries for the periods 1971–1998 has been undertaken, using the refined Laspeyres decomposition model. Our analysis confirms the findings for other regions that CO₂ emission intensity is attributable to energy consumption intensity, CO₂ emission coefficient of energy types and economic structure. Particularly, CO₂ emission coefficient of energy use was found to exercise the most influence on CO₂ emission intensity for both oil and non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries in the first sub-interval period of our investigation from 1971–1981. In the second subinterval of 1981–1991, energy intensity and structural effect were the two major influencing factors on emission intensity for the two groups of countries. However, energy intensity effect had the most pronounced impact on CO₂ emission intensity in non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries, while the structural effect explained most of the increase in CO₂ emission intensity among the oil-producing countries. Finally, for the period 1991–1998, structural effect accounted for much of the decrease in intensity among non-oil-producers, while CO₂ emission coefficient of energy use was the major force driving the decrease among oil-producing countries. The dynamic changes in the CO₂ emission intensity and energy intensity effects for the two groups of countries suggest that fuel switching had been predominantly towards more carbon-intensive production in oil-producing countries and less carbon-intensive production in non-oil-producing SSA countries. In addition to the decomposition analysis, the article discusses policy implications of the results. We hope that the information and analyses provided here would help inform national energy and climate policy makers in SSA of the relative weaknesses and possible areas of strategic emphasis in their planning processes for mitigating the effects of climate change.     

A prospective study of bioenergy use in Mexico

Bioenergy is one of the renewable energy sources that can readily replace fossil fuels, while helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable rural development. This paper analyses the feasibility of future scenarios based on moderate and high use of biofuels in the transportation and electricity generation sectors with the aim of determining their possible impact on the Mexican energy system. Similarly, it evaluates the efficient use of biofuels in the residential sector, particularly in the rural sub-sector. In this context, three scenarios are built within a time frame that goes from 2005 to 2030. In the base scenario, fossil fuels are assumed as the dominant source of energy, whereas in the two alternative scenarios moderate and high biofuel penetration diffusion curves are constructed and discussed on the basis of their technical and economical feasibility. Simulation results indicate that the use of ethanol, biodiesel and electricity obtained from primary biomass may account for 16.17% of the total energy consumed in the high scenario for all selected sectors. CO₂ emissions reduction—including the emissions saved from the reduction in the non-sustainable use of fuelwood in the rural residential sector—is equivalent to 87.44 million tons of CO₂ and would account for 17.84% of the CO₂ emitted by electricity supply and transportation sectors when the base case and the high scenario are compared by 2030.     

Mitigation technologies and measures in the energy sector of Kazakstan

An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and polices. In major part reducing CO₂ as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment.

The mitigation analysis addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan's CO₂ emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO₂ emission reduction is estimated to be about 11% of the baseline emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy, and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.     

广东能源消费碳排放趋势与前景展望

能源消费是人类活动排放CO₂等温室气体的主要来源,碳减排已成为我国能源发展的一个重要约束因素。2012年全世界能源消费排放3.173 4×1010 t CO₂,中国能源消费排放的CO₂已占世界总排放量的26.0%。2012年全世界人均CO₂排放量4 510 kg,而中国人均CO₂排放量达到了6 093 kg。同年广东省人均CO₂排放量为5 224 kg,高于世界平均水平,低于全国平均水平。随着节能减排和应对气候变化工作的推进,广东的单位产值能耗水平逐年降低,能源结构不断改善,使得全省化石能源消费带来的CO₂排放量的增长势头得到抑制,2012年的排放量比2011年略有减少。按目前的发展趋势预测,到2020年,广东CO₂排放总量将达到1.606 2×108 t碳当量,比2012年增加9.69×106 t碳当量,人均CO₂排放量将达到5 287 kg,略高于2012年的5 224 kg。如果在“十三五”期间加快第三产业发展,则到2020年广东省化石能源消费总量将比2012年下降2.7%,CO₂排放总量将比2012年下降3.5%,人均CO₂排放量将由2012年的5 224 kg下降到2020年的4 795 kg,接近世界平均水平。     

Cost effective integration of hydrogen in energy systems with CO2 constraints

The integration of hydrogen in national energy systems is illustrated in four extreme scenarios, reflecting four technological mainstreams (energy conservation, renewables, nuclear and CO₂ removal) to reduce C emissions. Hydrogen is cost-effective in all scenarios with higher CO₂ reduction targets. Hydrogen would be produced from fossil fuels, or from water and electricity or heat, depending upon the scenario. Hydrogen would be used in the residential and commercial sectors and for transport vehicles, industry, and electricity generation in fuel cells. At severe (50–70%) CO₂ reduction targets, hydrogen would cost-effectively supply more than half of the total useful energy demands in three out of four scenarios. The marginal emission reduction costs in the CO₂ removal scenario at severe CO₂ reduction targets are DFL 200/tCO₂ (ca $ 100/t). In the nuclear, renewable and energy conservation scenarios these costs are much higher. Whilst the fossil fuel scenario would be less expensive than the other scenarios, the possibility of CO₂ storage in depleted gas reservoirs is a conditio sine qua non.     

Coal gasification system using nuclear heat for ammonia production

Utilization of nuclear energy is an effective way of solving the global warming resulting from CO₂ emissions. Thermal energy accounts for more than two thirds of total energy utilization at present and therefore it is significant to extend the utilization of nuclear heat for the effective reduction of CO₂ emissions in the world. This paper describes a coal gasification system using HTGR nuclear heat in an ammonia production plant in terms of industrial utilization of the nuclear heat. The system uses the nuclear heat directly in addition to generating electricity. A steam reforming method using a two-stage coal gasifier is employed: it improves the heat utilization efficiency of the secondary helium gas from the HTGR. Finally, the paper clarifies that the nuclear gasification system can reduce CO₂ emissions by about five hundred thousand tons per year from that of a conventional system using fossil fuel.