Biofuel production potentials in Europe: Sustainable use of cultivated land and pastures,Part II: Land use scenarios

Europe's agricultural land (including Ukraine) comprise of 164 million hectares of cultivated land and 76 million hectares of permanent pasture. A “food first” paradigm was applied in the estimations of land potentially available for the production of biofuel feedstocks, without putting at risk food supply or nature conservation.Three land conversion scenarios were formulated: (i) A base scenario, that reflects developments under current policy settings and respects current trends in nature conservation and organic farming practices, by assuming moderate overall yield increases; (ii) an environment oriented scenario with higher emphasis on sustainable farming practices and maintenance of biodiversity; and (iii) an energy oriented scenario considering more substantial land use conversions including the use of pasture land.By 2030 some 44–53 million hectares of cultivated land could be used for bioenergy feedstock production. The energy oriented scenario includes an extra 19 million hectares pasture land for feedstocks for second-generation biofuel production chains. Available land is foremost to be found in Eastern Europe, where substantial cultivated areas can be freed up through sustainable gains in yield in the food and feed sector.Agricultural residues of food and feed crops may provide an additional source for biofuel production. When assuming that up to 50% of crop residues can be used without risks for agricultural sustainability, we estimate that up to 246 Mt agricultural residues could be available for biofuel production, comparable to feedstock plantations of some 15–20 million hectares.     

Resource use efficiency and environmental performance of nine major biofuel crops,processed by first-generation conversion techniques

We compared the production–ecological sustainability of biofuel production from several major crops that are also commonly used for production of food or feed, based on current production practices in major production areas. The set of nine sustainability indicators focused on resource use efficiency, soil quality, net energy production and greenhouse gas emissions, disregarding socio-economic or biodiversity aspects and land use change. Based on these nine production–ecological indicators and attributing equal importance to each indicator, biofuel produced from oil palm (South East Asia), sugarcane (Brazil) and sweet sorghum (China) appeared most sustainable: these crops make the most efficient use of land, water, nitrogen and energy resources, while pesticide applications are relatively low in relation to the net energy produced. Provided there is no land use change, greenhouse gas emissions of these three biofuels are substantially reduced compared with fossil fuels. Oil palm was most sustainable with respect to the maintenance of soil quality. Maize (USA) and wheat (Northwest Europe) as feedstock for ethanol perform poorly for nearly all indicators. Sugar beet (Northwest Europe), cassava (Thailand), rapeseed (Northwest Europe) and soybean (USA) take an intermediate position.     

Energy and greenhouse gas emission effects of corn and cellulosic ethanol with technology improvements and land use changes

Use of ethanol as a transportation fuel in the United States has grown from 76 dam³ in 1980 to over 40.1 hm³ in 2009 — and virtually all of it has been produced from corn. It has been debated whether using corn ethanol results in any energy and greenhouse gas benefits. This issue has been especially critical in the past several years, when indirect effects, such as indirect land use changes, associated with U.S. corn ethanol production are considered in evaluation. In the past three years, modeling of direct and indirect land use changes related to the production of corn ethanol has advanced significantly. Meanwhile, technology improvements in key stages of the ethanol life cycle (such as corn farming and ethanol production) have been made. With updated simulation results of direct and indirect land use changes and observed technology improvements in the past several years, we conducted a life-cycle analysis of ethanol and show that at present and in the near future, using corn ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emission by more than 20%, relative to those of petroleum gasoline. On the other hand, second-generation ethanol could achieve much higher reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. In a broader sense, sound evaluation of U.S. biofuel policies should account for both unanticipated consequences and technology potentials. We maintain that the usefulness of such evaluations is to provide insight into how to prevent unanticipated consequences and how to promote efficient technologies with policy intervention.     

Global food supply and the impacts of increased use of biofuels

In recent years prices on global food markets showed large fluctuations. The use of biomass as energy source (biofuel) in the developed world is frequently mentioned as one of the reasons for this instability. This paper compares the need for biofuel and needs for food and feed on global scale. A simple model is developed to estimate present and near future global needs for food, livestock feed and energy. We distinguish between developing countries, transition countries and the developed countries. The first group of countries needs extra food for their growing population, the second one needs extra feed, since the increased incomes among their population lead to increased demands for animal products. The developed countries require biomass to reduce the CO₂ emissions of their energy use. On global scale the extra needs for biomass as a fuel (1100 MT) turn out to be larger than the extra needs for food and feed (800 MT each). At present the developed countries are food exporters, their produce is essential for several food insecure countries in Africa and Asia. The increased need for biomass for energy is likely to affect these exports and therefore affect food security in parts of the world.     

Optimizing ethanol and bioelectricity production in sugarcane biorefineries in Brazil

In sugarcane biorefineries, the lignocellulosic portion of the sugarcane biomass (i.e. bagasse and cane trash) can be used as fuel for electricity production and/or feedstock for second generation (2G) ethanol. This study presents a techno-economic analysis of upgraded sugarcane biorefineries in Brazil, aiming at utilizing surplus bagasse and cane trash for electricity and/or ethanol production. The study investigates the trade-off on sugarcane biomass use for energy production: bioelectricity versus 2G ethanol production. The BeWhere mixed integer and spatially explicit model is used for evaluating the choice of technological options. Different scenarios are developed to find the optimal utilization of sugarcane biomass. The study finds that energy prices, type of electricity substituted, biofuel support and carbon tax, investment costs, and conversion efficiencies are the major factors influencing the technological choice. At the existing market and technological conditions applied in the upgraded biorefineries, 300 PJ y⁻¹ 2G ethanol could be optimally produced and exported to the EU, which corresponds to 2.5% of total transport fuel demand in the EU. This study provides a methodological framework on how to optimize the alternative use of agricultural residues and industrial co-products for energy production in agro-industries considering biomass supply chains, the pattern of domestic energy demand, and biofuel trade.     

Indirect land use change for biofuels: Testing predictions and improving analytical methodologies

Current practices for estimating indirect land use change (iLUC) due to United States biofuel production rely on assumption-heavy, global economic modeling approaches. Prior iLUC studies have failed to compare their predictions to past global historical data. An empirical approach is used to detect evidence for iLUC that might be catalyzed by United States biofuel production through a “bottom-up”, data-driven, statistical approach. Results show that biofuel production in the United States from 2002 to 2007 is not significantly correlated with changes in croplands for corn (coarse grain) plus soybean in regions of the world which are corn (coarse grain) and soybean trading partners of the United States. The results may be interpreted in at least two different ways: 1) biofuel production in the United States through 2007 (the last date for which information is available) probably has not induced any indirect land use change, and 2) this empirical approach may not be sensitive enough to detect indirect land use change from the historical data. It seems clear that additional effort may be required to develop methodologies to observe indirect land use change from the historical data. Such efforts might reduce uncertainties in indirect land use change estimates or perhaps form the basis for better policies or standards for biofuels.     

Sugar-ethanol-electricity co-generation in Hawai’i: An application of linear programming (LP) for optimizing strategies

This research develops a linear programming (LP) model to assess various options for sugar and biofuel production from sugarcane and other feedstock in Hawaii. More specifically, the study focuses on finding optimal sugar and biomass feedstock that would maximize producer profits in the production of sugar, ethanol and electricity. Feedstock included in the model were sugarcane, banagrass, energy cane and sweet sorghum. Given available land resources for growing energy crops on the island of Maui, four land resource scenarios were considered. If available land resources were used in the production of sugarcane and energy crops with added utilization of non-prime lands, Hawaii's ethanol goal for year 2020 could be achieved while maintaining two-thirds of Hawaii's current sugar production. Crop yields and unit production costs are key factors in determining optimal quantities of feedstock in the optimization model tested in this study.     

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions impacts of the adoption of the EU Directive on biofuels in Spain. Effect of the import of raw materials and land use changes

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impacts of the use of different alternative biofuels in passenger vehicles in Spain in order to meet EU biofuel goals. Different crop production alternatives are analysed, including the possible import of some raw materials. Availability of land for national production of the raw materials is analysed and indirect land use changes and associated GHG emissions are quantified.There are important differences in GHG emissions of biofuels depending on the raw material used and whether this is domestically produced or imported. Ethanol production using imported cereals and FAME production using domestic rapeseed have the highest GHG emissions per kilometre driven. Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) production from sunflower has shown the lowest emissions. When taking into account the results of GHG emissions savings per hectare, these findings are somehow reversed. Production of ethanol and around 12% of FAME can be done domestically. The rest will need to be imported and will cause indirect land use change (ILUC). Therefore, ethanol production will not displace any land, whereas FAME production will displace some amounts of land. Calculated ILUC factors are 29%-34%. The additional GHG emissions due to these indirect land use changes are significant (67%-344% of life cycle GHG emissions).Standalone, the EU biofuel targets can have important benefits for Spain in terms of global warming emissions avoided. However, when considering the impact of land use change effects, these benefits are significantly reduced and can even be negative.     

Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets

Recently, an active debate has emerged around greenhouse gas emissions due to indirect land use change (iLUC) of expanding agricultural areas dedicated to biofuel production. In this paper we provide a detailed analysis of the iLUC effect, and further address the issues of deforestation, irrigation water use, and crop price increases due to expanding biofuel acreage. We use GLOBIOM – an economic partial equilibrium model of the global forest, agriculture, and biomass sectors with a bottom-up representation of agricultural and forestry management practices. The results indicate that second generation biofuel production fed by wood from sustainably managed existing forests would lead to a negative iLUC factor, meaning that overall emissions are 27% lower compared to the “No biofuel” scenario by 2030. The iLUC factor of first generation biofuels global expansion is generally positive, requiring some 25 years to be paid back by the GHG savings from the substitution of biofuels for conventional fuels. Second generation biofuels perform better also with respect to the other investigated criteria; on the condition that they are not sourced from dedicated plantations directly competing for agricultural land. If so, then efficient first generation systems are preferable. Since no clear technology champion for all situations exists, we would recommend targeting policy instruments directly at the positive and negative effects of biofuel production rather than at the production itself.