A parametric investigation of hydrogen energy potential based on H2S in Black Sea deep waters

In this study, a parametric investigation is carried out to estimate the hydrogen energy potential depending on the quantities of H₂S in Black Sea deep waters. The required data for H₂S in Black Sea deep waters are taken from the literature. For this investigation, the H₂S concentration and water layer depth are taken into account, and 100% of conversion efficiency is assumed. Consequently, it is estimated that total hydrogen energy potential is approximately 270 million tons produced from 4.587 billion tons of H₂S in Black Sea deep waters. Using this amount of hydrogen, it will be possible to produce 38.3 million TJ of thermal energy or 8.97 million GWh of electricity energy. Moreover, it is determined that total hydrogen potential in Black Sea deep waters is almost equal to 808 million tons of gasoline or 766 million tons of NG (natural gas) or 841 million tons of fuel oil or 851 million tons of natural petroleum. These values show that the hydrogen potential from hydrogen sulphur in Black Sea deep water will play an important role to supply energy demands of the regional countries. Thus, it can be said that hydrogen energy reserve in Black Sea is an important candidate for the future hydrogen energy systems.     

French hydrogen markets in 2008 - Overview and future prospects

This study analyses the current industrial hydrogen markets in France on both a European and international scale, while endeavouring to assess future prospects by 2030. Hydrogen is produced either on purpose or unintentionally as a co-product. Intentional production of hydrogen, generally from natural gas, is classified as captive or merchant hydrogen. France produces about 920,000 metric tons of hydrogen annually. The producer and consumer industries are, in decreasing order of importance are: oil for refinery and petrochemicals, ammonia, iron & steel (co-production), chemicals, and chlorine (co-production). The intentional production of hydrogen from natural gas amounts to less than that co-produced: 40% compared with 60%. The amount of burned hydrogen is about 25% of the total. Production-related carbon dioxide emissions range between 1% and 2% of the total emissions in France. There is an increasing trend in the industrial hydrogen production, essentially due to the oil industry whereas a decline in production is expected in the ammonia industry. The annual production around 2030 should therefore be greater than 1 million metric tons (MMT) per year. If the iron & steel industry were to use hydrogen in every possible situation, it would double the total quantity of hydrogen produced and consumed in France.     

By-product hydrogen from steam cracking of natural gas liquids (NGLs): Potential for large-scale hydrogen fuel production,life-cycle air emissions reduction,and economic benefit

Steam crackers convert hydrocarbon feedstock (e.g., natural gas liquids) to light olefins via thermal cracking and produce hydrogen as a by-product during the process. Benefiting from the shale gas boom in recent years, the overall production capacity of U.S. steam crackers, as well as the potential of by-product hydrogen production, is continuously growing. We estimate that 3.5 million tonne/year of by-product hydrogen can be produced from steam crackers, almost doubling the size of the existing U.S. merchant hydrogen market. We also find that producing hydrogen from steam crackers creates less (15%–91%) life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions than the conventional centralized steam methane reforming (SMR) pathway. For criteria air pollutants, life-cycle emissions reduction benefits vary greatly (?75% – +85%), depending on the co-product treatment scenario (substitution or allocation) and air pollutant type. The substitution scenario generally results in an increase of criteria air pollutants emissions, mainly due to the requirement of substitutive natural gas fuel. We estimate that the cost of purified by-product hydrogen fuel from steam crackers is $0.9–1.1/kg, reducing hydrogen production costs by 30% compared to the conventional central SMR pathway. Furthermore, using by-product hydrogen from steam crackers can generate credits of $1.8–2.5/kg under California's low-carbon fuel standard.     

Potential importance of hydrogen as a future solution to environmental and transportation problems

Air pollution is a serious public health problem throughout the world, especially in industrialized and developing countries. In industrialized and developing countries, motor vehicle emissions are major contributors to urban air quality. Hydrogen is one of the clean fuel options for reducing motor vehicle emissions. Hydrogen is not an energy source. It is not a primary energy existing freely in nature. Hydrogen is a secondary form of energy that has to be manufactured like electricity. It is an energy carrier. Hydrogen has a strategic importance in the pursuit of a low-emission, environment-benign, cleaner and more sustainable energy system. Combustion product of hydrogen is clean, which consists of water and a little amount of nitrogen oxides. Hydrogen has very special properties as a transportation fuel, including a rapid burning speed, a high effective octane number, and no toxicity or ozone-forming potential. It has much wider limits of flammability in air than methane and gasoline. Hydrogen has become the dominant transport fuel, and is produced centrally from a mixture of clean coal and fossil fuels (with C-sequestration), nuclear power, and large-scale renewables. Large-scale hydrogen production is probable on the longer time scale. In the current and medium term the production options for hydrogen are first based on distributed hydrogen production from electrolysis of water and reforming of natural gas and coal. Each of centralized hydrogen production methods scenarios could produce 40 million tons per year of hydrogen. Hydrogen production using steam reforming of methane is the most economical method among the current commercial processes. In this method, natural gas feedstock costs generally contribute approximately 52–68% to the final hydrogen price for larger plants, and 40% for smaller plants, with remaining expenses composed of capital charges. The hydrogen production cost from natural gas via steam reforming of methane varies from about 1.25 US$/kg for large systems to about 3.50 US$/kg for small systems with a natural gas price of 6 US$/GJ. Hydrogen is cheap by using solar energy or by water electrolysis where electricity is cheap, etc.     

An evaluation of the potential of the use of wasted hydroelectric capacity to produce hydrogen to be used in fuel cells in order to decrease CO2 emissions in Brazil

The use of water wasted in hydroelectric plants as normalization dam excess, which constitute a hydrodynamic potential useful to generate electric energy which can be subsequently used to produce hydrogen and its subsequent consumption in fuel cells, has been considered as an alternative for hydraulic energy-rich countries like Brazil. The case is examined in which all the water wasted in the hydroelectric plants, spilled by dam gates to maintain acceptable water levels, from the 101 largest Brazilian hydroelectric plants was used to produce hydrogen. During the year of 2008, the electric energy produced from this utilisation would have been equivalent to 106.2 TWh, an amount that corresponds to an increase of ca. 30% of the total electric energy produced in the country. Furthermore, if this amount of hydrogen was used in the replacement of internal combustion vehicles by fuel cells, this would have prevented the production of 2,000,000 tons of CO₂ emissions per day. The economic balance (cost of electricity produced using the wasted water minus cost of gasoline consumed) indicates a savings of ca. 200 million US$. This plan would also significantly decrease production and release of greenhouse gases.     

Potential energy and greenhouse gas emission effects of hydrogen production from coke oven gas in U.S. steel mills

For this study, we examined the energy and emission effects of hydrogen production from coke oven gas (COG) on a well-to-wheels basis and compared these effects with those of other hydrogen production options, as well as with those of conventional gasoline and diesel options. We then estimated the magnitude of hydrogen production from COG in the United States and the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) that could potentially be fueled with the hydrogen produced from COG. Our analysis shows that this production pathway can achieve energy and greenhouse gas emission reduction benefits. This pathway is especially worth considering because first, the sources of COG are concentrated in the upper Midwest and in the Northeast United States, which would facilitate relatively cost-effective collection, transportation, and distribution of the produced hydrogen to refueling stations in these regions. Second, the amount of hydrogen that could be produced may fuel about 1.7 million cars, thus providing a vital near-term hydrogen production option for FCV applications.     

Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status,future trends,and policy implications

With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO₂ emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO₂ emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO₂ emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO₂ emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time.     

Environmental impact categories of hydrogen and ammonia driven transoceanic maritime vehicles: A comparative evaluation

In this study, carbon-free fuels -ammonia and hydrogen-are proposed to replace heavy fuel oils in the engines of maritime transportation vehicles. Also, it is proposed to use hydrogen and ammonia as dual fuels to quantify the reduction potential of greenhouse gas emissions. An environmental impact assessment of transoceanic tanker and transoceanic freight ship is implemented to explore the impacts of fuel substituting on the environment. In the life cycle analyses, the complete transport life cycle is taken into account from manufacture of transoceanic freight ship and tanker to production, transportation and utilization of hydrogen and ammonia in the maritime vehicles. Several hydrogen and ammonia production routes ranging from municipal waste to geothermal options are considered to comparatively evaluate environmentally benign methods. Besides global warming potential, environmental impact categories of marine sediment ecotoxicity and marine aquatic ecotoxicity are also selected in order to examine the diverse effects on marine environment. Being carbon-neutral fuels, ammonia and hydrogen, yield significantly minor global warming impacts during operation. The ecotoxicity impacts on maritime environment vary based on the production route of hydrogen and ammonia. The results imply that even hydrogen and ammonia are utilized as dual fuels in the engines, the global warming potential is quite lower in comparison with heavy fuel oil driven transoceanic tankers. Geothermal energy sourced hydrogen and ammonia fuelled transoceanic tankers release about 0.98 g and 1.65 g CO₂ eq. per tonne-kilometer, respectively whereas current conventional heavy fuel oil tanker releases about 5.33 g/tonne-kilometer CO₂ eq. greenhouse gas emissions.     

World energy analysis: H2 now or later?

This is a study of world energy resource sustainability within the context of resource peak production dates, advanced energy use technologies in the transportation and electricity generation energy use sectors, and alternative fuel production including hydrogen. The finding causing the most concern is the projection of a peak in global conventional oil production between now and 2023. In addition, the findings indicate that the peak production date for natural gas, coal, and uranium could occur by 2050. The central question is whether oil production from non-conventional oil resources can be increased at a fast enough rate to offset declines in conventional oil production. The development of non-conventional oil production raises concerns about increased energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water issues. Due to the emerging fossil fuel resource constraints in coming decades, this study concludes that it is prudent to begin the development of hydrogen production and distribution systems in the near-term. The hydrogen gas is to be initially used by fuel cell vehicles, which will eliminate tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions. With a lowering of H₂ production costs through the amortization of system components, H₂ can be an economic fuel source for electricity generation post-2040.     

Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios

Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) ‘business as usual’ (BAU); (ii) ‘advanced fuel economy’ (AFE); and (iii) ‘alternative energy replacement’ (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 600.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.     

Techno-economic optimization of PV system for hydrogen production and electric vehicle charging stations under five different climatic conditions in India

India is one of the most populous countries in the world, and this has implications for its energy consumption. The country's electricity generation and road transport are mostly dominated by fossil fuels. As such, this study assessed the techno-economics and environmental impact of a solar photovoltaic power plant for both electricity and hydrogen production at five different locations in India (i.e., Chennai, Indore, Kolkata, Ludhiana, and Mumbai). The hydrogen load represents a refueling station for 20 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles with a tank capacity of 5 kg for each location. According to the results, the highest hydrogen production occurred at Kolkata with 82,054 kg/year, followed by Chennai with 79,030 kg/year. Ludhiana, Indore, and Mumbai followed with 78,524 kg/year, 76,935 kg/year and 74,510 kg/year, respectively. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for all locations ranges between 0.41 and 0.48 $/kWh. Mumbai recorded the least LCOH of 3.00 $/kg. The total electricity that could be generated from all five cities combined was found to be about 25 GWh per annum, which translates to an avoidable emission of 20,744.07 metric tons of CO₂e. Replacing the gasoline that could be used to fuel the vehicles with hydrogen will result in a CO₂ reduction potential of 2452.969 tons per annum in India. The findings indicate that the various optimized configurations at the various locations could be economically viable to be developed.     

Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making.     

Strategic planning on carbon capture from coal fired plants in Malaysia and Indonesia: A review

Malaysia and Indonesia benefit in various ways by participating in CDM and from investments in the GHG emission reduction projects, inter alia, technology transfer such as carbon capture (CC) technology for the existing and future coal fired power plants. Among the fossil fuel resources for energy generation, coal is offering an attractive solution to the increasing fuel cost. The consumption of coal in Malaysia and Indonesia is growing at the fastest rate of 9.7% and 4.7%, respectively, per year since 2002. The total coal consumption for electricity generation in Malaysia is projected to increase from 12.4 million tons in 2005 to 36 million tons in 2020. In Indonesia, the coal consumption for the same cause is projected to increase from 29.4 million tons in 2005 to 75 million tons in 2020. CO₂ emission from coal fired power plants are forecasted to grow at 4.1% per year, reaching 98 million tons and 171 million tons in Malaysia and Indonesia, respectively.     

Comparative life cycle assessment of hydrogen pathways from fossil sources in China

Emissions of multiple hydrogen production pathways from fossil sources were evaluated and compared with that of fossil fuel production pathways in China by using the life cycle assessment method. The considered hydrogen pathways are gasoline reforming, diesel reforming, natural gas reforming, soybean‐derived biodiesel (s‐biodiesel) reforming, and waste cooking oil‐derived biodiesel reforming. Moreover, emissions and energy consumption of fuel cell vehicles utilizing hydrogen from different fossil sources were presented and compared with those of the electric vehicle, the internal combustion engine vehicle, and the compression ignition engine vehicle. The results indicate both fuel cell vehicles and the electric vehicle have less greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption compared with the traditional vehicle technologies in China. Based on an overall performance comparison of five different fuel cell vehicles and the electric vehicle in China, fuel cell vehicles operating on hydrogen produced from natural gas and waste cooking oil‐derived biodiesel show the best performance, whereas the electric vehicle has the worse performance than all the fuel cell vehicles because of very high share of coal in the electricity mix of China. The emissions of electric vehicle in China will be in the same level with that of natural gas fuel cell vehicle if the share of coal decreases to around 40% and the share of renewable energy increases to around 20% in the electricity mix of China. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sector coupling potential of wind-based hydrogen production and fuel cell train operation in regional rail transport in Berlin and Brandenburg

As the transport sector is ought to be decarbonized, fuel-cell-powered trains are a viable zero-tailpipe technology alternative to the widely employed diesel multiple units in regional railway service on non-electrified tracks. Carbon-free hydrogen can be provided by water-electrolysis from renewable energies. In this study we introduce an approach to assess the potential of wind-based hydrogen for use in adjacent regional rail transport by applying a GIS approach in conjunction with a site-level cost model. In Brandenburg about 10.1 million train-km annually could be switched to fuel cell electric train operation. This relates to a diesel consumption of appr. 9.5 million liters today. If fuel cell trains would be employed, that translated to 2198 annual tons hydrogen annually. At favorable sites hydrogen costs of approx. 6.40 €/kg - including costs of hydrogen refueling stations - could be achieved. Making excess hydrogen available for other consumers, would further decrease hydrogen production costs.     

Life cycle assessment of hydrogen supply chain with special attention on hydrogen refuelling stations

The controversial and highly emotional discussion about biofuels in recent years has shown that greenhouse gas² (GHG) emissions can only be evaluated in an acceptable way by carrying out a full life cycle assessment (LCA) taking the overall life cycle including all necessary pre-chains into consideration. Against this background, the goal of this paper is it to analyse the overall life cycle of a hydrogen production and provision. A state of the art hydrogen refuelling station in Hamburg/Germany opened in February 2012 is therefore taken into consideration. Here at least 50% hydrogen from renewable sources of energy is produced on-site by water electrolysis based on surplus electricity from wind (mainly offshore wind parks) and water. The remaining other 50% of hydrogen to be sold by this station mainly to hydrogen-fuelled buses is provided by trucks from a large-scale production plant where hydrogen is produced from methane or glycerol as a by-product of the biodiesel production. These two pathways are compared within the following explanations with hydrogen production from biomass and from coal. The results show that – with the goal of reducing GHG emissions on a life cycle perspective – hydrogen production based on a water electrolysis fed by electricity from the German electricity mix should be avoided. Steam methane reforming is more promising in terms of GHG reduction but it is still based on a finite fossil fuel. For a climatic sound provision of hydrogen as a fuel electricity from renewable sources of energy like wind or biomass should be used.     

The impact of fuel cell vehicle deployment on road transport greenhouse gas emissions: The China case

Considerable attention has been paid to energy security and climate problems caused by road vehicle fleets. Fuel cell vehicles provide a new solution for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, especially those from heavy-duty trucks. Although cost may become the key issue in fuel cell vehicle development, with technological improvements and cleaner pathways for hydrogen production, fuel cell vehicles will exhibit great potential of cost reduction. In accordance with the industrial plan in China, this study introduces five scenarios to evaluate the impact of fuel cell vehicles on the road vehicle fleet greenhouse gas emissions in China. Under the most optimistic scenario, greenhouse gas emissions generated by the whole fleet will decrease by 13.9% compared with the emissions in a scenario with no fuel cell vehicles, and heavy-duty truck greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by nearly one-fifth. Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of hydrogen production will play an essential role when fuel cell vehicles' fuel cycle greenhouse gas emissions are calculated; therefore, hydrogen production pathways will be critical in the future.     

Integration and economic viability of fueling the future with green hydrogen: An integration of its determinants from renewable economics

The volatility of fossil fuel and their increased consumption have exacerbated the socio-economic dilemma along with electricity expenses in third world countries around the world, Pakistan in particular. In this research, we study the output of renewable hydrogen from natural sources like wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal power. It also provides rules and procedures in an attempt to determine the current situation of Pakistan regarding the workability of upcoming renewable energy plans. To achieve this, four main criteria were assessed and they are economic, commercial, environmental, and social adoption. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process (FAHP), where we used first-order engineering equations, and Levelized cost electricity to produce renewable hydrogen. The value of renewable hydrogen is also evaluated. The results of the study indicate that wind is the best option in Pakistan for manufacturing renewable based on four criteria. Biomass is found to be the most viable raw material for the establishment of the hydrogen supply network in Pakistan, which can generate 6.6 million tons of hydrogen per year, next is photovoltaic solar energy, which has the capability of generating 2.8 million tons. Another significant finding is that solar energy is the second-best candidate for hydrogen production taking into consideration its low-cost installation and production. The study shows that the cost of using hydrogen in Pakistan ranges from $5.30/kg to $5.80/kg, making it a competitive fuel for electric machines. Such projects for producing renewable power must be highlighted and carried out in Pakistan and this will lead to more energy security for Pakistan, less use of fossil fuels, and effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.     

Exploring the potential of hydrogen in decarbonizing China's light-duty vehicle market

The Chinese government has pledged to achieve overall carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently, the transportation sector contributes to about 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. Hence, China has created a well-defined energy vehicle development strategy to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector, further expanding into hydrogen vehicle technologies. In this study, the Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) investigates the potential of hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (H₂-ICEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) as a reliable pathway towards the government's aspiration of carbon neutrality in the transportation sector. According to TEAM, by adopting FCEVs and H₂-ICEVs in the vehicle market, hydrogen demand could reach 25% of the total light-duty transportation energy demand in 2050. Consequently, this will lead to an annual reduction of more than 35 million tons GHG compared to only counting on the electrification pathway in the decarbonization task. Besides, FCEVs would take longer to penetrate the light-duty vehicle market compared to H₂-ICEVs, as the current fuel cell technology still requires much improvement to attain a competitive vehicle cost of production.     

Transition to hydrogen economy in the United States: A 2006 status report

Energy crises in the latter part of the 20th century, as well as the current increase in the cost of oil, emphasize the need for alternate sources of energy in the United States. Concerns about climate change dictate that the source be clean and not contribute to global warming. Hydrogen has been identified as such a source for many years and the transition to a hydrogen economy was predicted to occur from the mid-1970s to 2000. This paper reports on the status of this transition in the year 2006. Instead of being a clean source of energy, most of the hydrogen produced in the US results from steam reforming of fossil fuels, releasing _CO2${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ and other pollutants to the atmosphere. Nuclear process heat is ideally suited for the production of hydrogen, either using electricity for electrolysis of water, or heat for thermochemical hydrogen production or reforming of fossil fuels. However, no new nuclear plants have been ordered or built in the United States since 1979, and it may be many years before high-temperature nuclear reactors are available for production of hydrogen. Considerable research and development efforts are focused on commercializing hydrogen-powered vehicles to lessen the dependence of the transportation sector on imported oil. However, the use of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV) in 2006 is two orders-of-magnitude less than what has been predicted. Although it makes little sense environmentally or economically, hydrogen is also used as fuel in internal combustion engines. Development of hydrogen economy will require a strong intervention by external forces.