江西省CO2排放现状及减排对策分析

2010年,国家首次把单位GDP CO2排放下降17%作为约束性目标纳入"十二五"国民经济与社会发展规划,并提出合理控制能源消费总量的设想,这预示着未来国家在节能和减缓碳排放方面,将采取力度更大的措施。江西目前正处在工业化和城市化加快发展的关键时期,"十二五"社会经济发展对能源需求将保持在一个较高的水平,这必然导致CO2排放量持续增加,从而使碳减排工作面临巨大挑战。因此,深入探讨CO2排放发展趋势特征及影响变化的重要因素,对于制定我省各种能源政策、抑制CO2排放量、控制CO2排放强度具有十分重要的现实意义。     

增强型地热系统能耗及CO_2排放强度的生命周期评价

以装机容量10 MW的增强型地热系统(EGS)为例,对其生命周期内能耗和CO2排放进行详细核算,结果表明:EGS能耗以造井和储层建造阶段能耗为主,分别占生命周期能耗的80.04%和12.73%。EGS能耗强度和CO2排放强度(合标准煤)分别为3.45 g/kWh和8.25 g/kWh,能耗强度略高于风电,显著低于光伏发电与火电;CO2排放强度以EGS为最低,相较国内单位发电量764 g/kWh的碳排放,EGS服役期满20 a后,可实现减排CO2106万t。     

降低CO_2排放的中国能源发展路径分析

低碳经济发展越来越多地受到世界各国的广泛关注。环境、气候变化问题,已经成为整个人类面临的最严峻挑战。本文通过分析中国CO2排放的基本状况,并运用计量经济模型,对中国能源消费的环境效应影响、中国能源消费产生的CO 2的影响因素进行定量化分析,探讨了中国能源行业高耗能、外部不经济的主要因素。最后,提出了适合中国可行的降低CO 2排放的能源发展路径。     

生物质气化对减少CO_2排放的作用

分析了生物质利用过程中几种能量利用系统的特点及整体效率 ,论述了生物质和矿物燃料在 CO2 排放方面的不同特点 ,分别得出产生单位有效能源时 CO2 的排放值。通过比较发现 ,高效的生物质利用技术相对于矿物燃料 ,可以减少 CO2 排放 90 %左右。这充分证明利用生物质替代矿物燃料是减少 CO2 排放的有效措施之一 ,而气化技术是高效利用生物质的重要途径。     

中国电力CO_2减排技术经济指标体系初步研究

本文系统地设计与推导了电力行业CO2减排的主要技术经济指标,对1978～2009年中国电力CO2减排情况进行了量化计算与因素分析,并对"十二五"以及2020年有关指标进行了测算,最后分析了传统的电力规划技术经济指标与新的低碳发展指标体系的联系与区别。     

燃煤发电排放CO2的处置利用途径

CO2是能源与环境生物活动循环的依存产物,工业化后煤炭等化石燃料的使用产生了大量的CO2排放,打破了CO2的自然生态平衡。介绍了CO2的来源,分析了燃煤发电CO2的排放量,我国每年燃煤发电约排放C0230．7×10^8t,指出燃煤发电是减排CO2的重点。提出CO2的利用与处置的方法主要有：CO2和合成氨加工成尿素,并发展大颗粒尿素促进造林绿化;美国正在建的CO2零排放燃煤发电装置,采用了CO2收集与封存（CCS）技术,以及煤制油清洁燃料联产电力。     

二氧化碳排放因素分解实证研究

基于Kaya恒等式基本原理,采用LMDI分解法构建了CO2排放影响因素的扩展分解模型,以山西省为例,系统量化分析了1998～2008年间CO2排放影响因素,并针对现有的CO2减排政策,提出了加快发展低碳燃料LCT和CCS技术,从"源头"和"终端"上控制CO2排放.实例结果表明,CO2排放量呈逐年增长态势,经济增长与能源强度变化为影响CO2排放的重要因素,该模型对影响CO2排放的相关因素完整的分解和系统量化有效,可供制定节能减排措施、决策借鉴.     

2020年我国水泥行业CO_2排放趋势与减排路径分析

我国水泥行业的CO2排放仅次于电力行业,约占全国排放总量的15%。分析水泥行业的CO2排放趋势和减排路径对实现我国温室气体排放控制目标有着重要的现实意义。本文从影响水泥行业排放的主要影响因素着手,分析了水泥产量和单耗的现状及未来发展趋势,计算了水泥行业的历史排放、发展趋势以及减排潜力,指出了实现减排潜力面临的挑战和障碍,以及相应的措施建议。     

冷热电联产系统对CO2排放影响的分析研究

定量描述了燃煤冷热电联产系统降排CO2特性条件，对影响联产系统CO2排放的一些因素作了具体分析，提出以冷热电联产系统CO2降排率作为联产系统环境影响新的评价指标。结合国内实际情况，阐明在目前情况下发展冷热电联产是减少温室气体排放量的有效措施之一，是实现可持续发展目标的有效保障。     

广东省低碳发展的能源消耗与CO2排放分析

作为中国经济大省、人口大省和能源消费大省,广东省先行启动国家低碳省试点工作,率先开展碳交易市场建设试点。能源消费特征和CO2排放情况是低碳发展的基础,从广东省经济发展入手,分析了广东省终端能源消费及构成、单位GDP能耗和单位工业增加值能耗等能源消费特征,估算了广东省2005年至2010年的CO2排放量,并预测了广东省“十二五”期间的能源消费和CO2排放量,为节能减碳和国家低碳试点工作提供基础数据和决策依据。     

Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options

This study analyze the potential factors influencing the growth of transport sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in selected Asian countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing annual emissions growth into components representing changes in fuel mix, modal shift, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population, as well as changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity. We find that changes in per capita GDP, population growth and transportation energy intensity are the main factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While growth in per capita income and population are responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand; the decline of transportation energy intensity is driving CO₂ emissions down in Mongolia. Per capita GDP, population and transportation energy intensity effects are all found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam. The study also reviews existing government policies to limit CO₂ emissions growth, such as fiscal instruments, fuel economy standards and policies to encourage switching to less emission intensive fuels and transportation modes.     

Tracking the genealogy of CO2 emissions in the electricity sector: An intersectoral approach applied to the Spanish case

This paper analyses the factors leading to CO₂ emissions in the Spanish electricity generation sector in order to propose effective mitigation policies aimed at tackling those emissions. Traditionally, two broad categories of those factors have been considered in the literature: those related to the supply of electricity (technological features of the sector) and those related to the level of economic activity (demand factors). This paper focuses on an additional element, which has usually been neglected, the structural factor, which refers to the set of intersectoral transactions (related to the technologies used in other productive sectors) which connect, in either a direct or an indirect way, the general economic activity with the supply of electricity and, thus, with the emissions of the electricity generation sector. This analysis allows us to identify the so-called “sectors structurally responsible for emissions” (SSER), whose production functions involve transactions which connect the demand for goods and services with the emissions of the electricity generation sector. The methodology is based on an input–output approach and a sensitivity analysis. The paper shows that there are structural rigidities, deeply ingrained within the economic system, which lead to emissions from the electricity generation sector for which this sector cannot be held responsible. These rigidities limit the effectiveness of policies aimed at emissions mitigation in this sector.     

The impact of CHP generation on CO2 emissions

The combined generation of heat and power (cogeneration) is praised by many as a technique for reducing the emissions of CO₂ in industrialized nations. This is generally true but not always. In this article we discuss the impact of some major variables on the CO₂ emission reduction capacity of cogeneration. Two sets of variables are predominant: the characteristics of the CHP process and the composition of the electricity generation sector. We highlight the interaction between the two sets of variables with the help of diagrams.     

从18个城市看我国人均能耗和单位GDP能耗水平

以“清洁能源行动”18个试点示范城市为案例,探讨我国城市人均能耗和单位GDP能耗水平,分析影响我国城市人均能耗和单位GDP能耗水平的关键因素,主要有城市能源消费总量、人均GDP水平、第二产业比重和农村人口比例等。与世界平均水平相比,我国目前人均能耗和单位GDP能耗还有很大差距,节能降耗和发展新能源技术尤为重要。     

CO2 emissions from electricity generation in seven Asia-Pacific and North American countries: A decomposition analysis

The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method of complete decomposition is used to examine the role of three factors (electricity production, electricity generation structure and energy intensity of electricity generation) affecting the evolution of CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in seven countries. These seven countries together generated 58% of global electricity and they are responsible for more than two-thirds of global CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in 2005. The analysis shows production effect as the major factor responsible for rise in CO₂ emissions during the period 1990–2005. The generation structure effect also contributed in CO₂ emissions increase, although at a slower rate. In contrary, the energy intensity effect is responsible for modest reduction in CO₂ emissions during this period. Over the 2005–2030 period, production effect remains the key factor responsible for increase in emissions and energy intensity effect is responsible for decrease in emissions. Unlike in the past, generation structure effect contributes significant decrease in emissions. However, the degree of influence of these factors affecting changes in CO₂ emissions vary from country to country. The analysis also shows that there is a potential of efficiency improvement of fossil-fuel-fired power plants and its associated co-benefits among these countries.     

CO2 emissions structure of Indian economy

This paper analyses carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of the Indian economy by producing sectors and due to household final consumption. The analysis is based on an Input–Output (IO) table and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the year 2003–04 that distinguishes 25 sectors and 10 household classes. Total emissions of the Indian economy in 2003–04 are estimated to be 1217 million tons (MT) of CO₂, of which 57% is due to the use of coal and lignite. The per capita emissions turn out to be about 1.14 tons. The highest direct emissions are due to electricity sector followed by manufacturing, steel and road transportation. Final demands for construction and manufacturing sectors account for the highest emissions considering both direct and indirect emissions as the outputs from almost all the energy-intensive sectors go into the production process of these two sectors. In terms of life style differences across income classes, the urban top 10% accounts for emissions of 3416 kg per year while rural bottom 10% class accounts for only 141 kg per year. The CO₂ emission embodied in the consumption basket of top 10% of the population in urban India is one-sixth of the per capita emission generated in the US.     

China’s pre-2020 CO2 emission reduction potential and its influence

China achieved the reduction of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 45% compared with 2005 at the end of 2017, realizing the commitment at 2009 Copenhagen Conference on emissions reduction 3 years ahead of time. In future implementation of the “13th Five-Year Plan (FYP),” with the decline of economic growth rate, decrease of energy consumption elasticity and optimization of energy structure, the CO₂ intensity of GDP will still have the potential for decreasing before 2020. By applying KAYA Formula decomposition, this paper makes the historical statistics of the GDP energy intensity decrease and CO₂ intensity of energy consumption since 2005, and simulates the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 and its influences on achieving National Determined Contribution (NDC) target in 2030 with scenario analysis. The results show that China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by 52.9%–54.4% than the 2005 level, and will be 22.9%–25.4% lower than 2015. Therefore, it is likely to overfulfill the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 18% proposed in the 13th FYP period. Furthermore, the emission reduction potentiality before 2020 will be conducive to the earlier realization of NDC objectives in 2030. China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2030 will fall by over 70% than that in 2005, and CO₂ emissions peak will appear before 2030 as early as possible. To accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, China needs to make better use of the carbon market, and guide the whole society with carbon price to reduce emissions effectively. At the same time, China should also study the synergy of policy package so as to achieve the target of emission reduction.     

Dynamics of energy-related CO2 emissions in China during 1980 to 2002: The relative importance of energy supply-side and demand-side effects

Based on a newly developed model that integrates energy production, transformation and consumption processes, this paper compares the relative importance of some traditionally recognized factors operating on the energy demand side with a body of newly defined factors on the supply side, in terms of their contribution to trends in China's CO₂ emissions related to the total primary energy supply (C-TPES).

Before 1996, changes in China's C-TPES were mainly driven by changes on the energy demand side. Factors operating on the energy supply side played trivial roles. During the period 1996–2000, however, increasing demand-side effects declined dramatically and at the same time decreasing effects from supply side expanded significantly. Such changes resulted directly in a decline in the C-TPES. The decreasing effects from international trade as well as statistical imbalances between supply and demand reinforced the declining trend.

The shrinkage of demand side effects mainly arose from the slowdown of economic growth and speed of decrease in energy intensity. The expansion of supply-side effects was principally attributed to the speed of decrease in gross unit consumption in transformation sectors, especially in electricity sector. Therefore, the acceleration of efficiency improvements in end-use and transformation sectors accounted for the decline in the C-TPES over the period 1996–2000.     

The role of energy efficiency in reducing Scottish and UK CO2 emissions

In 2003, the UK government launched its long-anticipated White Paper on energy, the centrepieces of which were ambitious targets for the production of electricity from renewable technologies and the long-term aspiration of a 60% reduction in UK greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In the White Paper it was recognised that such a dramatic reduction in emissions will require significant changes in the way in which energy is produced and used. However there has been a general failure to recognise the fact that in order to meet emissions targets, the UK will have to significantly reduce its energy consumption; this is not helped by the general misconception in the UK that reductions in CO₂ emissions will occur simply by increasing the production of electricity from renewable sources.

Specifically, this paper highlights the current trends in renewables deployment and energy demand, with a specific focus on Scotland, where the authorities have set more ambitious renewables targets than the rest of the UK. As will be demonstrated in this paper, without energy demand reduction, the deployment of renewables alone will not be sufficient to curtail growth in UK CO₂ emissions. This is illustrated using a case study of the Scottish housing sector; whilst this case study is necessarily local in scope, the results have global relevance. The paper will also address the magnitude of energy savings required to bring about a reduction in emissions and assesses the status of the policies and technologies that could help bring such reductions about.     

中国农村生物能源利用的CO2排放量估算与空间分析

中国作为世界能源消费大国,同时也是农业大国,其生物质能源利用在农村能源消费构成中占据很大比重。文章采用排放因子法对2010年中国各省(市\区)农村生物质能源利用的CO2排放量进行了估算,利用ArcGIS对估算结果进行空间分析,运用空间统计方法,在Geoda平台上分析各地区碳排放量的空间自相关性。结果表明:秸秆和薪柴的利用对农村生物能源利用的CO2排放量有重要贡献,沼气所占比例较小。在空间分布特征上,生物质能源利用的CO2排放量呈现出中西高、东南偏低的分布特征。