Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach to enhance risk assessment for metropolitan construction projects

The undertaking of construction projects in metropolitan areas is a risky, competitive, and dynamic proposition requiring a reliable risk assessment model for adequate planning. This study employs a fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) approach to systematically assess risk for a metropolitan construction project. Consistent fuzzy preference relations (CFPR) are used to measure and investigate the relative impact on project performance of twenty identified risk factors included in four risk dimensions. The fuzzy multiple attributes direct rating (FMADR) approach is employed to analyze the occurrence probability of multiple risk factors. Furthermore, the level of risk for the overall project caused by individual risk factor is evaluated with the synthesized analysis of the relative impacts and probability of occurrence. The implementation of FMCDM makes the proposed risk assessment approach more reliable and practical than the traditional statistical approach. The proposed approach can be employed to effectively evaluate the overall project risk, and can be benefited to efficiently identify significant risks of a metropolitan construction project.     

A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic

The construction industry is plagued by risk and often has suffered poor performance as a result. There are a number of risk management techniques available to help alleviate this, but usually these are based on operational research techniques developed in the 1960s, and for the most part have failed to meet the needs of project managers. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. A common language for describing risks is presented which includes terms for quantifying likelihoods and impacts so as to achieve consistent quantification. The relationships between risk factors, risks and their consequences are represented on cause and effect diagrams. These diagrams and the concepts of fuzzy association and fuzzy composition are applied to identify relationships between risk sources and the consequences for project performance measures. A methodology for evaluating the risk exposure, considering the consequences in terms of time, cost, quality, and safety performance measures of a project based on fuzzy estimates of the risk components is presented.     

A fuzzy inference-based approach for building damage risk assessment on mining terrains

Reliable evaluation of risk of building damage due to the mining impact is problematic owing to the magnitude, diversity and uncertainty of factors that may affect the surface, as well as the subjective character of methods of assessing resistance of the objects. The uncertainty and ambiguity elements in the decision process can be accounted for by fuzzy inference method. This tool employed together with GIS enabled one to integrate such diverse factors affecting damage risk as surface deformations and resistance of building objects, taking into account uncertainty of data and subjectivity of evaluation of experts making the assessment.The results of investigations of the damage risk model based on fuzzy inference are presented in the paper. The successive stages of working out a fuzzy model are presented, the most important stages indicated and the choice of specific elements of the model justified. The advantages of fuzzification are presented on the example of building data subjected to the mining impact in one of the Polish mining areas.     

模糊综合评判在施工质量评定中的应用

建立了施工质量评价指标体系,提出了施工质量的模糊综合评价模型,其研究结论对加强我国大中型建设项目工程质量的管理与控制具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。     

建筑安装工程风险评价

结合我国建筑施工应急管理的现状,以建筑安装工程为出发点,建立了基于模糊综合评价理论的建筑安装工程风险评价模型,并运用该模型进行了实例评价,表明该模型能够有效地控制建筑安装过程的风险,为安全施工奠定基础。     

A fuzzy logic approach to model delays in construction projects using rotational fuzzy fault tree models

Delays in construction projects are inevitable and, as a result, claims and disputes arise. Different causes of delay can come into play and therefore the need to identify and classify different causes of project delay arises. Different factors that contribute to project delay affect the likelihood of project delay in different degree of effectiveness. Fuzzy fault tree analysis (FTA) is suggested by this research to estimate the likelihood of project delay. Likelihood of delay membership function is further quantified using the weighted average defuzzification method. Two fuzzy logic models are implemented into the fuzzy FTA, using Visual Basic software: the models discussed in this research are Baldwin's rotational model and the Angular model. Comparison between the two fuzzy logic models has been carried out. Validation of the fuzzy FTA computer model is performed. Validation of the model was performed for adequacy and applicability of the model. On average, the validation performed by independent construction engineers and fuzzy logic experts produced satisfactory results. The computer software suggested by this study is an attempt to assess the likelihood of the project delay, which helps reduce delays in construction projects that can cause time loss.     

A fuzzy logic approach to model delays in construction projects using translational models

The likelihood of a project delay is affected by different factors; thus, there is a pressing need to develop a method that estimates the likelihood of such a delay. In this paper, analysis of potential occurrences of delays, which are classified into procedural, enabling, and triggering causes, is performed using the fuzzy fault-tree analysis method. Subjective judgment expresses causes of delay and their respective degree of effectiveness which are analysed in this study. The fuzzy triangular model and translational models are employed in this study. The severity of the likelihood of the project delay is the result of this analysis. A model was developed to assess the likelihood of the project delay. Evaluation of the model was performed for applicability and adequacy of the model. On average, evaluation performed by independent construction engineers and fuzzy logic experts produced satisfactory results.     

基于熵权的模糊分析法在风险管理中的应用

在分析建设项目风险管理的基础上,结合模糊数学中层次分析法和熵权的概念,建立了熵权模糊分析模型。针对建设项目中的风险因素,提供了管理决策的依据,以正确的进行项目风险的管理和决策工作。     

Towards a better modelling and assessment of construction risk: Insights from a literature review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.     

基于模糊数学的平原区工程建设场地适宜性判别模型建立

平原区工程建设场地的适宜性评价基本一致,但由于不同场地的地质条件不同,因此针对不同建筑物的适宜性也应该不同,本文提出了运用模糊数学综合评判的方法来进行工程建设场地适宜性的进一步评价,具有一定的工程实践意义。     

基于模糊综合评价的BT建设项目风险管理研究

基于模糊综合评价理论,导入丽水南城东扩二期区块BT项目的实证研究,分析了项目存在的风险因素和风险类别,运用＂模糊综合评价理论＂对项目风险进行了评价,进而确定丽水南城东扩二期区块BT项目风险级别,为实施项目风险管理提供指导。     

工程项目时间/成本模糊集优化

从分析工程项目的时间／成本影响因素入手，综合考虑定性和定量因素，包括管理水平、管理复杂程度、资源分配情况等，提出了模糊集理论的时间／成本决策模型，从而促进工程项目时间／成本模糊集优化的研究。     

基于Choquet模糊积分的工程投标风险评估方法

在工程项目竞争性投标中,对于承包商来说,投标决策是一个多风险因素综合评价的问题,既要考虑自身实力,业主情况等主观条件,又要考虑项目的复杂性、自然条件等客观条件,同时还要兼顾经济、社会、环境、安全等各种因素。结合我国当前建设市场的现状和国内外相关文献,构建了工程项目投标风险因素评估系统层次结构和指标体系。针对在多因素指标的综合评价问题上,建立相互独立的指标比较困难和人们的主观评价往往存在非线性的特点,在模糊测度的基础上,提出一种基于Choquet模糊积分的新的工程投标多风险因素综合决策算法,详细论述该算法的计算步骤,并通过案例验证该方法的可行性、有效性和实用性。结果表明,该方法可以对多个项目进行投标风险评估排序,并且计算简单,可适用多种综合评价问题。     

A fuzzy mathematical approach for bridge condition evaluation

There are presently no established guidelines available for a bridge inspector to follow when assessing the significance of multiple deterioration factors on the bridge condition rating. As such, the evaluation of an existing bridge is based on a highly subjective and non-uniform procedure, and usually suffers from imprecision and personal bias. Hence, any attempt to find the optimal solution for bridge management based on such rating procedure can be misleading. However, with the development of a fuzzy mathematical approach, human subjectivity and imprecision can be included systematically in the decision making process.     

基于模糊理论的软件项目风险评估模型构建

为有效控制软件项目风险管理,提出一种新的评估模型,融合模糊理论、风险权重和专家信任度等概念,对软件项目中的风险进行评估.该模型除了计算出通常用于衡量风险程度的风险当量以外,还计算出多种风险对某种风险后果的组合影响,以及单个风险对整体后果的综合影响,使评估者从宏观和微观上充分度量出项目中的风险危害,从而为风险的缓解和控制提供了可靠的依据.     

基于模糊理论的深基坑施工期风险评估

深基坑工程具有投资规模大、不确定性因素多、施工技术复杂、社会影响大等特点。这些特点决定了其施工期存在较多经济技术风险。因为风险具有客观性、必然性、多样性、动态性、模糊性等特点,风险很难用一个准确的值来确定,用模糊隶属函数曲线确定一个范围可以合理有效地描述深基坑施工期的风险。首先,专家根据制定的事故概率等级和损失等级对事故的概率和损失进行估值;然后,根据工程的复杂性、所调研专家水平的差异等来确定专家对估计值的确信程度,根据确信程度选择合适的隶属函数曲线,再由隶属函数曲线确定风险的范围;最后,将该范围与制定的风险接受准则相比较,确定基坑的风险等级。针对一个深基坑工程进行风险评估,得出了该基坑的风险等级。     

工程建设项目风险识别与应对规划综述

在工程项目风险管理概念及特点的基础上,对工程建设项目风险进行界定,并建立工程建设项目风险管理体系,确立风险识别流程,展开风险识别并分析具体原因,指出工程项目建设风险管理的对策。     

模糊综合评价法在地质灾害危险性评价中的应用

以陕北热力电力场址工程为例,结合野外调查和室内分析研究成果,选用敏感因子—二级模糊综合评价法对建设用地地质灾害危险性综合评估方面做了定量性研究,目的在于将半定量或定量的方法引入地质灾害危险性评估领域并对其可行性进行一定的探索。     

Improving the risk quantification under behavioural tendencies: A tale of construction projects

Complex construction projects are risky owing to several features and factors. Their management involves risk assessment which is subjected to various behavioural tendencies and the existing body of knowledge lacks appropriate methods to quantify these effects. The prevalent standard model of Expected Utility Theory does not differentiate between threat and opportunity, resulting into an identical estimation for both facets of risk. This limitation was addressed by Prospect Theory which better captures risk preferences. However, construction industry still relies upon conventional methods of risk assessment. The current study introduces a weighting function to better quantify the cognitive errors in construction risk assessment by adjusting the over- and under-estimation. In doing so, detailed scenario-based, semi-structured interviews are conducted engaging senior professionals. It is found that, typically, opportunities are underestimated by 7.5% and threats are overestimated by 8%. Integrating these findings into risk response strategies results into a realistic and effective resource allocation.     

Risk assessment for gas pipelines using fuzzy sets

Most gas pipelines have been buried for many years and it is hard to assess their safety. In some locations, gas pipeline breaks have resulted in severe economic and social consequences. The severity of such consequences increases with the number of people exposed. For these reasons, risk assessment for gas pipeline systems should consider both the prediction of damage occurrence and the estimation of the economic and social impacts. In this paper, a new measure denoted H. Index is introduced to assess the magnitude of gas accidents. In order to examine the correlation between the magnitude of accidents and the pipeline attributes, including the environment, fuzzy component analysis is developed. This paper presents a procedure based on linguistic variables to evaluate the main characteristics for each accident. Actual accidents data in Japan are used to illustrate the approach.