针对倒塌房屋瓦砾分布的模糊神经网络预测

房屋倒塌后的瓦砾分布范围与楼层层高、总层数、房屋重量等因素有关，具有一定的随机性，要精确预测其倒塌后的堆积物分布具有一定困难。而模糊神经网络系统的预测功能可以解决这一问题。本文作者结合模糊推理系统和辐射基函数网络，提出了建立多层前向神经网络模型，来输出倒塌房屋堆积物分布范围及平均高度的模糊预测系统。     

首尔城市建设形态变化对交通能耗的影响分析(下)

城市建设形态变化与交通能耗的相关性分析分析指标及计算方法为了设计城市建设形态变化的分析模型,把相关指标按尺度及特性分为城市密度、土地利用、交通结构及经济水平四个方面。为验证其影响的因变量,选择了出行方式分担率、交通能源消耗、交通污染排放,以及大气污染度。各方面的具体分析变量如表12。相关性分析如表13所示,人口密度的增加,与私家车分担率的减少,公共交通分担率的增加,人均交通能耗及污染物排放的减少存在显著相关性。     

沈阳市商场冬季室内热舒适的模糊分析

对沈阳市冬季商场室内热环境状况进行了实地调查，建立了基于自适应性模糊神经网络的人体热舒适模糊评判模型,对采集到的数据进行了模糊推理和网络训练，总结出了关于人体热舒适的模糊推理规则。由仿真结果可知，模糊评判模型输出值与热感觉投票值吻合较好，为客观评价和预测人体热舒适提供了一种方法和思路。     

地下连续墙水平变形的模糊近似推理

影响地下连续墙水平变形的因素很多,这些因素与连续墙水平变形之间的关系复杂,难以用传统的统计回归方法建立模型。笔者尝试过用模糊信息技术解决地下连续墙水平变形的预测,文章是在以前研究的基础上的改进,重点在于考虑论域步长选取的合理性和将单一因素分析扩充到三种因素的分析,建立模糊关系矩阵,然后利用模糊近似推理对地下连续墙的水平变形进行预测。分析结果表明,合理的论域和步长可以有效地提高近似推理的精度,与单因素分析比较,多因素模糊近似推理所得的变形率的拟合程度大大提高,更趋合理。     

地铁枢纽站点交通疏解模型研究——以杭州火车东站为例

针对地铁站点旅客集散压力这一问题,本文分析了地铁枢纽站点各种交通疏解模式的特点,运用非集计模型建立了基于分担率预测的地铁枢纽交通疏解模型,并以杭州火车东站为例,预测了该交通枢纽未来年客流疏解的各交通方式的分担率。     

基于非合作博弈的城际运输通道客运分担率及定价策略研究

针对城际运输通道内多种运输方式并存的现状,选取铁路、公路2种主要运输方式作为研究对象,分析决定旅客出行方式选择的影响因素,确定旅客出行效用函数,运用logit模型建立旅客和运输方式的双层分担率模型,并求解分担率。针对2种运输方式竞争关系,以昌九运输通道为算例建立非合作博弈模型,对昌九城际高铁和高速公路的分担率及票价进行了计算分析,结果表明,模型存在博弈的最佳分担率和最优票价组合,能够实现2种运输方式的整体效益最大化。     

基于二次模糊修正的钢筋砼单层工业厂房震害预测综合评判模式

以往的震害预测模糊综合评判模式，没有区分模糊与非模糊因素，预测结果只是各种因素的加权平均综合，不能反映出某一宏观烈度下的震害异常。本文从多维混合模糊推理出发，导出了基于二次模糊修正的综合评判模式，提出了震害异常问题的处理方法。并应用此模式对钢筋砼单层工业厂房进行了震害预测。     

重庆主城区交通运行特征研究

主城区汽车拥有量快速增长．2013年年增长17.7％,私人小汽车增长更为显著．增长率达21．4％。小汽车出行占机动化出行分担率增长,公共交通出行分担率呈现下降趋势。道路交通压力加大．早晚高峰拥堵严重．并呈拥堵范围扩大、拥堵程度加重的趋势。内环以内干路高峰时段平均车速为24．5km／h．接近全面拥堵临界点．易受事故、天气等因素影响引发大范围拥堵．其中．五大商圈区域拥堵尤为突出。     

基于ANFIS的碳纤维布与混凝土黏结强度预测

基于模糊神经网络的非线性拟合能力和推理机制,研究了自适应模糊神经推理系统ANFIS在碳纤维布与混凝土的极限黏结强度预测中的应用,设计了一阶TSK模糊推理网络,建立碳纤维布厚度、宽度、黏结长度、弹性模量、抗拉强度、混凝土抗压强度、抗拉强度、宽度与极限黏结强度之间的高度非线性关系,用于黏结强度的预测。测试结果表明,自适应模糊神经推理系统计算简单、预测准确,在碳纤维布与混凝土的黏结强度预测方面优势明显。     

基于模糊神经网络的铣床热误差预测模型研究

当前,铣床主轴加工产品容易受到热误差的影响,造成产品精度下降。对此,采用模糊神经网络模型预测铣床主轴热误差,并对预测结果进行比较和分析。建立神经网络径向基函数的表达式,给出了模糊推理系统和控制规则,创建了模糊RBF神经网络预测模型,对铣床主轴进行热误差验证。结果显示:铣床主轴采用RBF神经网络模型预测误差较大,其Y轴和Z轴输出最大误差分别为5.9μm和7.1μm;铣床主轴采用模糊RBF神经网络模型预测误差较小,其Y轴和Z轴输出最大误差分别为3.5μm和2.9μm。同时,模糊RBF神经网络模型预测误差跳动幅度较小。采用模糊RBF神经网络预测模型,可以补偿铣床运行时产生的热误差,提高铣床主轴加工精度。     

Understanding the impact of built environment on metro ridership using open source in Shanghai

A growing body of research using the direct demand model has explored the impact of the built environment on transit ridership. However, empirical studies identified various significant factors in different cities with different datasets. This study adopts points-of-interest (POIs) data to identify the physical environmental factors affecting metro ridership in Shanghai. Independent variables in terms of the rail transit system, external connectivity, intermodal connection, and land use factors within 286 metro stations' catchment areas were selected. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to group POIs into 6 components for dimensionality reduction. The results from ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis emphasize the dominating role of commercial land use and rail transit system factors, together with bus stops, tourist spots and healthcare factors, positively impact both weekday and weekend metro ridership; however, the effect of job-related land use is significant only on weekdays. Distinctively, the variable of intersection density is not positively associated with ridership as expected, revealing that street network measurements may not explain walking to rail transit in the citywide Shanghai context, so we suggest a new requirement: a multilevel-based walkability index in dense cities. The latter finding also implied that residences in central locations are less reliable than those in suburban locations. Finally, we conclude with strategies to encourage balanced trip demands other than simply increasing ridership, which has potential implications on urban planning and transit-oriented development (TOD) in China.     

Urban development around bus rapid transit stops in seven cities in Latin-America

Although bus rapid transit (BRT) has become a popular transportation innovation worldwide, little is known about the built environment around the stops of these systems. A typology of urban development around 81 BRT stops in 7 cities in Latin America was developed and their daily BRT ridership examined. Primary and secondary data collected around the stops were the basis for factor and cluster analyses. Ten stop types were identified, with some types including attributes consistent with expectations of transit-oriented development areas. Other stops captured conditions prevalent in many cities in Latin America: mixed land uses, informal housing distant from activity nodes, large commercial developments, and a relative absence of green spaces open to the public. Confirming expectations, stop types with a higher transit orientation were more likely to have higher ridership than other stops such as those burdened by incompatible land uses and barriers to station access.     

The impact of gasoline prices on urban bus ridership

This article examines the gasoline price elasticity of ridership on a city transit system. Multiple regression models are developed to explain variations in ridership due to changes in gasoline prices, bus system size, and other variables. The estimated gasoline price elasticity of bus ridership is. 3, which is very strong statistically. This provides insight into the possible relationship between future federal energy policies which will influence future gasoline prices and urban transportation modal choices.     

基于独立服务区的城乡公交规划研究

文章提出了"独立服务区"及"竞争服务区"的概念,并解析独立服务区对城乡公交运营效益的影响机理。以山东新泰城乡公交调研数据为例,采用多元回归分析验证了独立服务区对城乡公交运营效益的影响作用。最后,从独立服务区的规模和发车班次调整,竞争服务区的发车频率和服务范围调整角度,提出了城乡公交规划的新思路。     

运动场馆人流疏散及其模型探讨

本文探讨了运动场馆人流疏散模型的建立和求解问题。在分析运动场馆人流群集行为规律的基础上 ,提出将人流疏散分为人流离开运动场馆、人流从场馆出口到公交站点和人流在公交站点利用交通工具疏散三个阶段 ,研究了第一阶段的疏散特征 ,设计了相应的疏散模型 ,分析、计算了所需的疏散时间。研究结论可为奥运会场馆人流安全、快速、有序疏散提供一定的参考依据。     

Public surface transportation and regional output: A spatial panel approach

This paper studies regional impact of three mature public surface transportation infrastructures in the Northeast corridor of the US: highway, public railway and public transit. Infrastructure stock is valued in real terms from 1991 to 2009. A spatial panel approach with fixed effects is adopted to test the hypothesis of spillovers by allowing for spatial dependence. The result shows that public surface transportation infrastructure in general does have a significant impact on regional output, most of which is from spillover effect; highways have an overwhelming influence through both local effects and spillover effects. The impacts from public railway and public transit are not significant, but transit does show a positive though small spillover effect.     

Fuzzy approach for optimum replacement time of mixed infrastructures

Investments in infrastructure assets represent a sizable portion in the governments’ public fund. Continuous maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement are required to maintain the level of service of infrastructure assets. Knowing the replacement needs of infrastructures and the timing of replacement are challenging tasks. This paper presents a decision support tool that aids in deciding the best time to replace several types of infrastructure assets, that is, mixed infrastructure. The paper uses fuzzy logic to model uncertainties in order to identify the useful lifetime of each infrastructure asset. Infrastructure replacement decision is made based on least cost option(s). A fuzzy logic tool is applied in three steps: data fuzzification, fuzzy inference, and data defuzzification. The developments made in the fuzzy logic tool are presented. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the practical features of the proposed tool.     

Exploring urban taxi ridership and local associated factors using GPS data and geographically weighted regression

Taxi is a core component of urban transit systems. Since they can provide more time-saving and convenient service than many other transit options, taxis have a certain passenger base. The analysis of taxi ridership can be used to better understand the travel mobility of passengers and the traffic structure of urban areas. In previous studies, taxi trajectory data have been widely used, especially in exploring taxi ridership, and point-of-interest (POI) data are usually used to evaluate the land-use type of a certain sub-district. On the basis of preceding research, this paper uses taxi trajectory data within the long time scale of one week. Five traffic factors are taken into consideration: pick-ups, drop-offs, and the ratio of pick-ups to drop-offs, pick-up probability and drop-off probability. The research model is divided into weekdays and weekends. For the calculation of probabilities, an index termed the Area Crossing Index is proposed to reflect the taxi cardinality and accessibility of a region. At the same time, POI and demographic data are used as explanatory variables. In this study, we also take the business hours of POIs into consideration. In order to explore the ridership in each hour, hierarchical clustering is used to determine the similarity characteristics of hourly dependent variables. Then, stepwise linear regression is used to screen and evaluate coefficients without collinearity. Finally, geographically weighted regression is adopted to evaluate spatial variability, and the coefficients of common explanatory variables on weekdays and weekends are examined. At the end of this paper, the causes of common explanatory factors on weekdays and weekends for each traffic factor are discussed. This paper also analyzes ridership by combining all the results of dependent variables and proposes some suggestions for taxi scheduling.     

浦东新区三级公交系统规划的若干设想

从剖析浦东新区公交系统现状问题及经济社会发展对公共交通的需求发展出发,针对两区合并后新浦东地域特点和浦东新区总体规划修编中对全区范围功能布局的规划安排,提出了构建新区"快速公交—准快速公交—普通公交"的三级公交系统的设想。并对浦东新区建立上述三级公交系统的必要性、具体系统构成方式(制式选择)、相关标准、设想进行了研究分析,提出了南汇新城、惠南地区、周康航地区等区域建立准快速公交系统的线网基本布局方案。