Accounting for spatial relationships in models of interstate population migration

This study focuses on the specification of distance and space in models of state-to-state population migration. Typically, space is captured by one or two simple variables that do not adequately model the spatial relationship between states. These are particularly poor measures for states with a common border, especially those with a metropolitan area located near the border. Four models of interstate population migration are developed, with increasingly complex specifications of space. The models are estimated using 1975 to 1980 migration data for the 48 contiguous states of the United States. Common borders and bordering metropolitan areas do influence interstate population flows. Models lacking a more detailed specification of space will lose explanatory power and suffer from biases.     

The effect of income taxes on interstate migration: an analysis by age and race

The topic of interstate migration and the effects of taxes on migration have been extensively studied. Prior research has examined not only many possible determinants of migration but also the migrations of various populations, including the elderly, African-Americans, and the college educated. The present study will attempt to differentiate itself from this prior research by looking at the effect of income taxes on the interstate migration of both whites and African-Americans at various ages. Another distinguishing feature of the present study is that it will use data from the NLSY-Geocode, a data set not used previously for this type of study. Results of the present study are similar to the results of prior works; income taxes have an effect on migration for most races and age groups. Individuals move from states with high income taxes to states with low income taxes; these results corroborate the results obtained from the use of aggregate, state-level data. In addition, results of the present study suggest that non-economic factors, such as ties to a particular state and changes in employment status, are also important factors in an individual’s migration decision.     

The migration response to the economic turnaround in New England

"This paper is an investigation of the dynamics of interstate migration flows to and from New England since 1975. The main goal of the research is to study the timing and volume of the lagged migration adjustment to the regional economic turnaround and the temporal stability of patterns of regional inflows and outflows. The paper is an examination of the responsiveness of interstate migration to changing regional economic conditions based on annual interstate migration data and a set of cross-sectional destination-specific Poisson regression models." The data are from a series developed by the Bureau of the Census based on Federal income tax returns.     

Intransitivity,the spatial interaction model,and U.S. migration streams

"The flows predicted by a large class of spatial interaction models are transitive, yet US migration tables have been shown to contain large numbers of intransitivities. This paper investigates a number of possible conditions under which flows regulated by the spatial interaction model might be observed to be intransitive. A singly constrained gravity model is calibrated for a number of flow tables, and distorted by sampling error, by aggregation over strata, and by an independently distributed error term.... The results of the calibration of the spatial interaction using US interstate migration flows, 1935-1970, are given and compared with others previously published."     

Inferring migration flows from the migration propensities of infants: Mexico and Indonesia

The need for methods of indirectly estimating migration flows is particularly important in developing countries, where migration data are often incomplete and inaccurate. This paper focuses on the use of an indirect internal migration estimation method applied to Mexican and Indonesian census data. It shows that the mobility propensities of infants can be used to infer the corresponding propensities of all other age groups. However, the promise of this method is reduced in instances of inadequate data, and great care must be taken to identify outlying values in the data and to correct obviously erroneous patterns. Future work increasingly will be directed to this issue.     

Regional adjustment and migration flows in Canada, 1971 to 1981

The primary purpose of this paper is to consider and test for various interlinkages between migration flows, and also between migration and employment change. Three types of migration flows are distinguished: domestic in-migration and outmigration, and net international migration. The three migration equations are embedded in a model of regional adjustment that also includes regional employment and wage changes as endogenous variables. The data base utilizes Canadian census statistics for 1971 and 1981 in a cross-section analysis with 183 regions represented by counties, or theri equavalents. The empirical performance of the various interlinkages is broadly in line with expectations, but the results raise some important questions about interpretation.     

Multiregional estimation of gross internal migration flows

"A multiregional model of gross internal migration flows is presented in this article. The interdependence of economic factors across all regions is recognized by imposing a non-stochastic adding-up constraint that requires total inmigration to equal total outmigration in each time period. An iterated system estimation technique is used to obtain asymptotically consistent and efficient parameter estimates. The model is estimated for gross migration flows among the Canadian provinces over the period 1962-86 and then is used to examine the likelihood of a wash-out effect in net migration models. The results indicate that previous approaches that use net migration equations may not always be empirically justified."     

The long- and short-run influences of housing prices on migration

A change in housing prices has a profound impact on households' housing equity and future moving decisions. While most previous studies focus on discussing the mobility lock-in effect due to housing price depreciation, revealing that there is a positive relationship between housing prices and migration, this study reexamines their relationship by using the panel cointegration method and city-level panel data for Taiwan during the 1994–2016 period. The empirical results reveal that migration and housing prices are cointegrated, and the influence of housing prices on migration is significantly positive in the long run. However, the influence of housing price changes on migration is not as significant as expected in the short run. To further examine their short-run relationships, we use quantile regression and the results show that the influence of housing price changes on migration is significantly negative below the 0.5 quantile, but it turns out to be significantly positive in the 0.9 quantile. The influence of housing price changes on migration is not significant between the 0.5 and 0.8 quantiles. We conclude that the influence of housing price changes on migration might be asymmetric in the short run.     

Measuring interstate migration flows: an origin-destination network based on Internal Revenue Service records

"This paper examines gross interstate migration flows for five periods for the years between 1969 and 1978. The analysis is based upon a newly available data source--Federal income tax returns. Approximately 90% of the US population is covered by this data series. The matching of Internal Revenue Service (IRS) returns between filing dates enables the determination both of the origin and of the destination of migrants, with few of the risks of geographic miscoding present. "These data illustrate that despite divergent economic fluctuations over the past nine years, the patterns of interstate migration have remained virtually unchanged. With few exceptions, the number of migrants either leaving or entering a particular state comprise identical proportions over time.... In addition, these data offer considerable evidence that current residence has a significant impact on the selection of a destination." Comparisons are made with data from the Current Work History Sample and the 1970 census.     

Models for the analysis of interregional migration

"Asymmetric square tables, such as those arising from interregional migration, can be analysed by separating the skew-symmetric and symmetric components. A least-squares analysis of the skew-symmetric part can indicate the degree of complexity of model that is consistent with data and this can be combined with some suitable model for the symmetric part. The joint model may then be fitted by maximum likelihood based on suitable distributional assumptions. This approach is used for an analysis of Australian interstate migration for l960-l966 and indicates a model with independent in-migration and out-migration rates proportional to a symmetric function of population sizes and interstate distance."     

A note on opportunity costs and migration analysis

The hypothesis that opportunity costs associated with foregone alternatives in moving from region i to region j significantly affect the migration decision has been proposed by Levy and Wadycki in the context of a regression model of migration. Their results for Venezuela were highly successful and additional evidence reported by Wadycki with United States data for 1955–60 also substantiated the basic hypothesis.These previous attempts at including the concept of intervening opportunities into the regression model of migration employed definitions similar to Stouffer's seminal 1940 article on the subject of intervening opportunities. The present paper presents two alternative formulations for intervening opportunities and tests them with 1955–60 United States interstate migration data. In all cases we find that both the explanatory power of distance and its estimated elasticity fall substantially when we include the proxy variables for intervening opportunities. Furthermore, including these proxies increases the explanatory power of the migration model substantially. Proxy variables which employ Stouffer's 1960 reformulation of the concept of intervening opportunities prove superior in our empirical tests.     

Volatility in the geographical structure of short-run US interstate migration

"Migration is often thought to be a long-run phenomenon. However, it is shown here by means of labor-force migration estimates derived from the Continuous Work History Sample over the period 1958-1975, that US interstate migration is quite volatile over the short run with respect both to its adjustment to macroeconomic fluctuations and to its geographic structure. A hierarchical clustering routine is utilized to analyse yearly estimates of interstate gross in-migration and out-migration so as to identify the temporal stability and characteristics of the geographical patterns of migration. States enter the national migration linkage tree at different levels for different years, depending upon the level of short-run economic activity." It is also shown that "when national economic conditions worsen, labor-supply adjustments are more localized and the degree of interstate interdependence is less than in times of economic boom."     

Determinants of black interstate migration, 1965–70 and 1975–80

This paper presents and tests a regression-based model of black interstate migration. Explanatory variables include characteristics of origins and destinations, distance, and two migrant stock measures. The model is tested using black interstate migration flows published by the U.S. Bureau of the Census for 1965–70 and 1975–80. Three findings stand out. Firstly, the stock measures are strong determinants of black migration. They tap behavioral processes that channelize black migration streams, including information flows through familial and social networks and return migration. Secondly, the migrant stock measures attenuate effects of other explanatory variables indicating that other variables influence current migration both directly and indirectly through the stock measures. Thirdly, changes in coefficients of explanatory variables between the two periods reflect shifts in black migration patterns that occurred during the 1970s.     

Poisson regression models of Canadian census division migration flows

Tax-file data are available for moves between census divisions in Canada on a year-by-year basis, and may be the best data source for studying migration flows between censuses. This paper reports the results of fitting a series of models to the 1985 to 1986 flows using a form of regression analysis based on the Poisson distribution that is appropriate for count data. These models confirm results well-known from interprovincial and intermetropolitan migration analysis, but also reveal some more surprising results.     

An economic analysis of migration in Mexico

This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960–1970 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. The results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earlings levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of in-migration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earnings levels have greater rates of out-migration.The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earnings levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earnings levels have lower associated elasticities of migration.It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force.This research was supported by Grant Number 1-RO-1-HD08567-01 from the Population and Reproduction Grants Branch, Center for Population Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, United States Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Part of this study was completed at the Food Research Institute, Stanford University, where J. R. Ladman was a Visiting Scholar. We are grateful to Barry Edmonston and Dudley Kirk for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper. Responsibility for remaining shortcomings remains ours.     

Interstate spillovers of private capital and public spending

The analysis estimates the economic returns on public spending by transportation and non-transportation functions vs. private capital, using a panel data set for 48 contiguous states from 1989 through 2002. These actual spending dollars are used as a more precise measure compared to apportioned state public capitals used in the existing literature. For each type of capital/spending, the interstate spillovers were constructed in such a way that different states are weighted by commodity flows across the states to reflect different degree of inter-state dependence. We find that when spending data rather than capital stock is used, all of the interstate spillover effects are negative and statistically significant, suggesting that infrastructure investment does not contribute to economic growth (at least not directly). Therefore, crowding out effects exist among states competing for both private and government funds, in particular if states are highly dependent on allocation of federal funds. These results confirm the finding that previously estimated positive coefficients reflect spurious correlation based on capital stocks and output.     

Considering,planning, and realizing migration in early adulthood. The influence of life-course events and perceived opportunities on leaving the city in Germany

Despite the common acknowledgement that migration is a process, the vast majority of empirical migration studies focus on actual moves without paying attention to the stages preceding them. We use an analytical framework in which the migration process is subdivided into a phase of decision-making, consisting of considering and planning the move, and another phase of realizing it. We investigate which part both life-course events and perceived opportunities play in each stage of the migration process for moves out of the city among young adults aged 18–29 years. The data come from a representative survey in two German cities (Magdeburg and Freiburg) and were gathered via a two-wave design in 2006 and 2007. Results from a generalized ordered logistic regression analysis of not considering, considering, or planning migration reveal that perceived opportunities and life-course events are important predictors of considering and planning migration, whereas beginning tertiary education and beginning a job are particularly important to entering the planning stage. Results from a binomial logistic regression of moving versus staying show that resources are particularly important for putting the decision in favor of migration into action.     

On the relation between origin income and migration

While traditional migration theory suggests that the rate of migration is negatively related to income at the origin, many empirical studies of aggregate migration yield a non-significant or even a positive relation. This paper utilizes a simplified model of migration to demonstrate that one possible reason for such results is the imperfect capital market facing migrants. Higher average income at the origin may imply a higher number of individuals who have the cash resources to finance migration, thus generating a positive relation between regional income and migration. The conclusions suggest the use of non-linear specifications in empirical migration studies.The views expressed in this paper are the author's; they do not represent those of the World Bank or its affiliated institutions.     

Accounting for migration in regional occupational employment projections

Occupational employment projections are one of the primary products produced by state labor market information agencies to assist with state and regional job training and worker assistance programs. In theory, the information from occupational employment forecasts should improve both interregional and intertemporal labor market efficiency through better matching between training efforts and job openings. Until recently, the projections methodology was predominantly a demand-requirements approach that failed to incorporate important labor supply effects and interstate/interregional dependencies. Recent research has focused on improving the labor supply specification. This paper reports on one such effort to evaluate the importance of interstate occupational migration and to develop methods to incorporate migration into the existing projections methodology. Initial results indicate that the total number of estimated job openings by occupation have to be revised significantly upwards when migration is taken into account.