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1.
A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
The increasing complexity and dynamism of construction projects have imposed substantial uncertainties and subjectivities in the risk analysis process. Most of the real-world risk analysis problems contain a mixture of quantitative and qualitative data; therefore quantitative risk assessment techniques are inadequate for prioritizing risks. This article presents a risk assessment methodology based on the Fuzzy Sets Theory, which is an effective tool to deal with subjective judgement, and on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is used to structure a large number of risks. The proposed methodology incorporates knowledge and experience acquired from many experts, since they carry out the risks identification and their structuring, and also the subjective judgements of the parameters which are considered to assess the overall risk factor: risk impact, risk probability and risk discrimination. All of these factors are expressed by qualitative scales which are defined by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to capture the vagueness in the linguistic variables. The most notable differences with other fuzzy risk assessment methods are the use of an algorithm to handle the inconsistencies in the fuzzy preference relation when pair-wise comparison judgements are necessary, and the use of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers until the defuzzification step. An illustrative example on risk assessment of a rehabilitation project of a building is used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.  相似文献   

2.
Problems on occupational health and safety are commonly occurred in the construction industry, including falling of materials or person from height, stepping on objects and injured by hand tools. Key of dealing with project safety and risk assessment in construction industry is important, thus, way on doing assessment and liability of assessment are necessary for all professionals. However, it is found that those professionals prone to heavily rely on their own experiences and knowledge on decision making on risk assessment, which lack of a systematic approach and lack of ways to check the reliability of the decisions. This paper investigates the need for people involved in construction to take systematic and effective risk assessments for different trades. 14 common types of trades, accidents, and accident causes are explored, in addition to suitable risk assessment methods and criteria. A Risk Assessment Model (RAM) is then developed for assessing risk levels as various project stages with various work trades. A case study is used to prove the workability and reliability of the developed RAM in the practical industry. The developed RAM is found to be benefit for predicting high-risk construction activities and thus preventing accidents occurred based on a set of historical accident data.  相似文献   

3.
施工合同是建设工程中最为重要的合同,其一旦存在风险会严重影响到各工程参与方的利益,因此对施工合同进行风险评价非常重要。而施工合同风险评价作为一个复杂的系统评价问题,是建设工程合同管理的重要过程。通过文献综述与实际工程相结合的方式,从施工方的角度建立施工合同风险评价指标体系;采用CRITIC赋权法计算评价指标的客观权重,通过云模型逆向发生器计算合同风险云数字特征,利用正向发生器生成合同风险云图,以此直观评价合同风险等级,同时,通过利用相近度的方法进一步确定评价结果的可靠性;将建立的施工合同风险评价方法应用到实际工程中,得出所选工程实例的施工合同处于高风险等级。  相似文献   

4.
This paper explores the mapping of the environmental assessment process onto design and construction processes. A comparative case study method is used to identify and account for variations in the ‘fit’ between these two processes. The analysis compares eight BREEAM projects (although relevant to LEED, GreenStar, etc.) and distinguishes project-level characteristics and dynamics. Drawing on insights from literature on sustainable construction and assessment methods, an analytic framework is developed to examine the effect of clusters of project and assessment-level elements on different types of fit (tight, punctual and bolt-on). Key elements distinguishing between types include: prior working experience with project team members, individual commitment to sustainable construction, experience with sustainable construction, project continuity, project-level ownership of the assessment process, and the nature and continuity of assessor involvement. Professionals with ‘sustainable’ experience used BREEAM judiciously to support their designs (along with other frameworks), but less committed professionals tended to treat it purely as an assessment method. More attention needs to be paid to individual levels of engagement with, and understanding of, sustainability in general (rather than knowledge of technical solutions to individual credits), to ownership of the assessment process and to the potential effect of discontinuities at the project level on sustainable design.  相似文献   

5.
Risk-based decision making (RBDM) is critical in successful construction project management, in which decision makers’ attitudes towards risks play an important role. Most previous studies in construction project risk management have been focusing on the factors contributing to the success of risk management, but little attention was given to factors significantly affecting decision makers’ risk attitudes in construction projects. To improve RBDM, we investigate the critical factors affecting contractors’ risk attitudes in construction projects in China in this research. Literatures reviews, interviews and questionnaires are used for the identification of factors affecting contractors’ risk attitudes. Statistical methods of ranking analysis and factor analysis are also implemented for verification and further analysis. The results show that the most important three factors are: “consequences of decision making”, “engineering experience”, and “completeness of project information”. Results from factor analysis on the identified critical factors reveal that they can be grouped into four categories, namely: (1) knowledge and experience; (2) contractors’ character; (3) personal perception; and (4) economic environment. The significance of this research is that the findings do not only provide decision making support for contractors by deepening their understandings of the factors that affect their risk attitudes, but also serve as a useful reference for further studies under this topic.  相似文献   

6.
This paper attempts to provide an overview of risk assessment and management practice in underground rock engineering based on a review of the international literature and some personal experience. It is noted that the terminologies used in risk assessment and management studies may vary from country to country. Probabilistic risk analysis is probably the most widely-used approach to risk assessment in rock engineering and in geotechnical engineering more broadly. It is concluded that great potential exists to augment the existing probabilistic methods by the use of Bayesian networks and decision analysis techniques to allow reasoning under uncertainty and to update probabilities, material properties and analyses as further data become available throughout the various stages of a project. Examples are given of the use of these methods in underground excavation engineering in China and elsewhere, and opportunities for their further application are identified.  相似文献   

7.
There is an increasing diversity both of project types and PM approaches, but decision tools and theory connecting the two are limited. To address this shortcoming, this paper reviews literature on alternative PM approaches, in the context of project contingency theory. Firstly, the paper identifies five selection factors seen within this literature: uncertainty, complexity, urgency, team empowerment and criticality. Secondly, the paper adapts project contingency theory to encompass these factors. Thirdly, these factors are used to develop a contingency framework based on project uncertainty and its consequences. Finally, the paper discusses the practical applications of the framework, such as its use for project process selection, tuning of processes, and project risk assessment.  相似文献   

8.
The undertaking of construction projects in metropolitan areas is a risky, competitive, and dynamic proposition requiring a reliable risk assessment model for adequate planning. This study employs a fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) approach to systematically assess risk for a metropolitan construction project. Consistent fuzzy preference relations (CFPR) are used to measure and investigate the relative impact on project performance of twenty identified risk factors included in four risk dimensions. The fuzzy multiple attributes direct rating (FMADR) approach is employed to analyze the occurrence probability of multiple risk factors. Furthermore, the level of risk for the overall project caused by individual risk factor is evaluated with the synthesized analysis of the relative impacts and probability of occurrence. The implementation of FMCDM makes the proposed risk assessment approach more reliable and practical than the traditional statistical approach. The proposed approach can be employed to effectively evaluate the overall project risk, and can be benefited to efficiently identify significant risks of a metropolitan construction project.  相似文献   

9.
Complex construction projects are risky owing to several features and factors. Their management involves risk assessment which is subjected to various behavioural tendencies and the existing body of knowledge lacks appropriate methods to quantify these effects. The prevalent standard model of Expected Utility Theory does not differentiate between threat and opportunity, resulting into an identical estimation for both facets of risk. This limitation was addressed by Prospect Theory which better captures risk preferences. However, construction industry still relies upon conventional methods of risk assessment. The current study introduces a weighting function to better quantify the cognitive errors in construction risk assessment by adjusting the over- and under-estimation. In doing so, detailed scenario-based, semi-structured interviews are conducted engaging senior professionals. It is found that, typically, opportunities are underestimated by 7.5% and threats are overestimated by 8%. Integrating these findings into risk response strategies results into a realistic and effective resource allocation.  相似文献   

10.
Prediction of ground movements and assessment of risk of damage to adjacent buildings/utilities have become an essential part of the planning, design, and construction of a tunneling project in urban environments. A web-based tunneling-induced building/utility damage assessment system, named TURISK, was developed. Currently available first order methods were implemented in TURISK for prediction of tunneling-induced ground movements and assessment of damage to adjacent buildings/utilities. TURISK was written in a server-client internet environment using the Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0 in conjunction with the MapGuide ActiveX Control software. The developed system was then implemented to the Daegu Metro Subway Line 2 construction site. The results demonstrated that the developed web-based building/utility assessment system can be used as an efficient tool in the perspective of tunneling-induced settlement risk management for tunneling projects in urban areas. Practical significance of tunneling-induced settlement risk assessment is also discussed.  相似文献   

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