绿色建筑开发的自组织动力和阻力因素初探——市场经济条件下绿色建筑开发的江南调研

该研究基于开发企业异质性、决策机制复杂性和开发环境多样性,采用访谈方式并通过定量化分析,初步构建了绿色建筑开发自组织动力和阻力因素框架,并对不同投资属性和规模的开发企业动力和阻力因素构成差异、以及政府和社会机构与开发商动力和阻力因素的比较进行了逐一分析。研究发现:绿色建筑开发是复杂系统内部主体的自适应性选择,企业进行绿色建筑开发不仅具有阻力也具有内在动力,而且动力和阻力因素构成具有多维性、差异性特点;外部动力通过转化为内在竞争力和价值驱动力起作用。不同投资属性以及不同规模的开发企业之间、政府和社会咨询机构与开发主体之间对绿色开发动力和阻力理解均有明显差异。研究为绿色建筑开发演进规律研究和政策制定提供了实证基础。     

国外城市规划建设

欧盟会提议在15个成员国内对规划、计划及其它独立项目要进行环境影响评估,各国政府正仔细审阅这一提议.所制定的条令,也要通过像美国联邦规定要通过的类似评审程序,它将使得环境影响评估成为欧洲国家规划程序中一个不可分割的整体.尽管许多国家有着效仿美国环境政策法案制定的环境影响法规,但却没有几个国家把它们用在更为的决策中,如政策、规划和计划中.欧盟曾在85年要求成员国采用环境影响评估法,但他们只把该法用于象化学工厂、港口和发电设施上.多年来,环境学家力争说服管理部门政策、规划和计划都要接受环境影响评估.一些观察家曾希望所颁发的条令能把所有政策、规划、计划都包括在内,但五年的慎重考虑最终还是减少了该提议的实用范围.所提出的条令只适用于这么一些规划和计划:它们是为以后发展制定纲要的“土地使用决策制定过程中的一部分”以及适用于包含有关项目性质、规模和位置条款的规划和计划.     

房地产预警警源指标选择方法探析

房地产预警作为宏观经济预警的重要分支,其指标体系的研究具备重要的理论与现实价值.其中预警指标体系的研究尚存在很多问题,对于警源指标的选择目前还缺乏有效的定量研究手段.本文通过对多属性不确定性决策方法的采用,提出了基于多属性不确定性决策的房地产预警警源指标选择的定量研究方法,并利用算例数据对于多决策者主体、警情权重完全未知的多警情、多警源研究算例进行了评估.研究结论表明本文的研究方法可以有效地作用于房地产预警指标体系研究的警源指标的选择.     

基坑支护方案的多属性决策分析

针对基坑支护方案选择的复杂性和不确定性,基于多目标决策理论,建立了基坑支护方案选择的多属性决策模型,并应用优基数求和法对模型进行求解.结合苏州交通银行大厦基坑支护工程进行支护方案优选的实例计算,并对优选方案的实际施工效果进行监测.工程实例表明:多属性决策模型科学、有效、简便易用,具有推广和应用价值.     

高科技企业无形资产价值的法律分析

随着知识经济时代的到来,以知识产权为核心的无形资产成为社会财富的重要形态,在社会生产中发挥着日益重要的作用,以无形资产价值量化为内容的资本化行为也愈益普遍。如何对无形资产的价值属性加以理性判断,如何对无形资产的资本化价值进行评估,如何对无形资产的价值评估加以法律规制,成为极具时代意义的课题。文章从无形资产价值的内涵解析展开理论分析与理性反思,对无形资产的价值异化予以阐释,从市场机制与法律规制入手,强化市场参与主体的连带责任与有效监管,实现无形资产资本价值的理性回归与制度优化。     

一致性模糊层次分析法在铁路线选择中的应用

针对目前铁路线路选择过程中的复杂性和信息模糊性,根据多目标决策理论和层次分析方法的基本原理,将互反型判断矩阵改为模糊一致性判断矩阵,并把和行归一法与特征向量结合使用,克服了目前流行的层次分析法中的判断矩阵一致性不科学的问题,通过实例说明了该方法是一种简单有效的决策方法。     

广义Shapley区间直觉不确定语言Choquet积分在绿色住宅投资群决策中的应用

多属性群决策作为解决多方案选择性问题的一种重要方法具有十分重要的研究意义,目前的多属性群决策方法主要存在属性评价过程中信息失真、没有注意到指标间存在交互作用以及如何科学合理地获得专家及指标权重三个问题。针对以上三个问题,文章在获取属性评价信息时,由专家用区间直觉不确定语言给出方案属性值的定性判断;考虑到属性间的交互作用,利用模糊测度及GS-IVIULCA算子来计算方案的综合评价值;专家及属性权重由信息熵与Shapley函数确定;当专家及属性权重不确定时,分别建立了专家集与属性集上的最优模糊测度模型。基于此,给出了信息不确定环境下一个全新的群决策方法。最后,通过一个绿色住宅投资群决策案例进行实证分析来验证该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于模糊多属性群决策的工程交易模式选择研究

工程项目是国家进行实体投资的主要方式,而工程交易模式对工程项目能否成功实施起着决定性作用。为了使业主方能够选择出更加恰当的工程交易模式,文章对影响工程交易模式的影响因素进行了归纳总结,构建了工程交易模式决策指标体系。由于业主在进行工程交易模式选择时涉及的因素非常多且十分复杂,因此工程交易模式的选择是一个多属性的决策问题。文章通过运用熵权法及模糊多属性决策理论,建立了模糊多属性群决策模型,并用实例对该模型进行了验证,确保其有效性,最终为业主方提供了更加科学、合理、实用的工程交易模式的决策方法。     

国外区域规划评估发展脉络

目标和进程 目前,国外区域规划评估涉及经济学、公共政策和管理、数理统计、社会学和心理学等多个学科。评估的目标主要集中于三点：帮助决策、帮助资源分配和提高可信性。首先,评估帮助决策,是指评估结果有助于政府判断区域规划的真正价值和实际影响,因此直接关系到政府的下一步决策;其次,评估帮助资源分配,是指在财政和预算压力下,评估可以帮助政府更好地分配资源并更好地使用现有资金,通过评估方案的效用和效率,判断优先发展某些地区和领域;     

基于灰色关联度的施工企业投标战略决策

招投标作为一种采购和订立合同的方式,已成为工程项目承发包的大势所趋。与此同时,实行战略规划和多项目开发已是施工企业的必然选择。如何适应新的投标环境与发展趋势,制定合理的投标决策,使施工企业能够以战略目标为发展导向,以项目投标为实现战略的有效途径是如今施工企业必须面对的难题。借助平衡计分卡模型,从财务、客户、内部业务流程、学习与成长四个维度建立一套科学的、系统的战略目标指标体系,根据战略价值评价系统的灰色属性引入灰色关联度模型,并针对指标评价值为实数类和三角模糊数类采取不同的归一化和距离处理方法,将指标权重及指标评价值合成为拟投标项目与最理想项目的关联程度,并以此作为项目战略价值排序的依据,从而为施工企业选择投标作出决策。     

Monitoring trends of urban development and environmental impact of Beijing, 1999-2006

The high rates of environmental change and accelerated species loss in the urban development process should be quantified to rebalance the social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In this study, an emergy-based environmental impact assessment model is designed according to the framework of the Eco-Indicator 99 for monitoring the negative effects on human well-being and ecosystem integrity in the urban development system of Beijing from 1999 to 2006. The environmental impact assessment model is based on the sustainability promotion perspective, and emphasizes the determinants of human health and ecosystem integrity in the urban development process. It is vital that the links among human health, ecosystem integrity and urban sustainability are therefore considered especially from the perspective of a supply-side environmental cost evaluation (including ecological service supply, ecological and economic losses and investment for treatment). Results suggest that: (1) out of all the pollutants, ecological services were mainly used to dilute sulfur dioxide and NH₃-N; (2) nitrogen dioxide and greenhouse gases released by the urban system contribute heavily to both ecological and economic losses evaluated in emergy terms; and (3) emissions impact, mainly from airborne pollutants, with small contribution from waterborne emissions, generally increases from 1999 to 2006, undermining the sustainability of Beijing. The emergy synthesis proves to be very appropriate to account for large-scale and indirect costs generated by pollution as side effects of economic activity. Such knowledge is a necessary pre-requisite to perform a reliable cost-benefit evaluation of urban sustainability strategies, and provide guidance for policy decision making to maximize benefits and minimize negative impacts.     

Pushing the envelope: market mechanisms for sustainable community development

This paper introduces market mechanisms for sustainable community development, an interdependent planning and implementation framework encompassing strategic directions, strategies, actors and instruments for municipal policy making. It examines how the economy influences the unsustainable development of local jurisdictions and how a coherent typology of strategies, actors and policy levers can move communities toward complementary environmental, social and economic outcomes. The paper illustrates a dichotomy between municipal decision making and embraces economic, social and environmental criteria for development of the built environment. It defines sustainable community development and analyzes research findings from senior decision makers in government, academic institutions, industry and non-profits. After critiquing ‘the market mechanism’ and identifying preferred approaches, the authors propose a typology that systematically aligns market signals with implementing sustainable community development policies.     

Methodological aspects of impact analysis of regional economic policy

In this paper methodological aspects of impact analysis of regional economic policy are discussed. The first part of the paper deals primarily with conceptual notions and considers impact analysis as part of the comprehensive process of policy evaluation. Given this frame of reference, a detailed conceptual framework for impact analysis is outlined. In the second part of this paper measurement methods are classified into micro and macro studies. The latter class is then further subdivided according to the structure and contents of the impact model at hand. The advantages and weaknesses of each method are evaluated. Finally, an overview of the choice of an appropriate measurement method, given the circumstances under which a specific type of effect of a given kind of instrument has to be measured, is given. This is followed by some general conclusions on impact assessment.     

Science,technical expertise and the human environment

Science permeates all aspects of daily life. Increasingly, however, the role of science knowledge in the policy making arena has been problemised as the assumed status of scientific knowledge as a neutral arbiter in public decision making has been challenged by scientists, policy makers, and the public. Concomitant with this challenge has been the demand for the incorporation of a plurality of forms of scientific knowledge into the public policy making process, and the extension of public participation in the decision making process. This paper draws on a range of sources to examine how science and policy making are being integrated in response to such challenges. In doing so the paper provides a comparative analysis of these changes through an examination of a range of different national contexts. The paper makes the point that despite a variety of traditions and institutional forms in these national contexts all have been marked by significant institutional change, and that a common feature of such change has been the increasing codification of approaches, and in particular the production of guidelines to shape the public science-public policy interface.     

Assessment of complex environmental health problems: Framing the structures and structuring the frameworks

Many environmental risks are multi-faceted and their health consequences can be far-ranging in both time and space. It can be a challenging task to develop informed policies for such risks. Integrated environmental health impact assessment aims to support policy by assessing environmental health effects in ways that take into account the complexities and uncertainties involved. For such assessment to be successful, a clear and agreed conceptual framework is needed, which defines the issue under consideration and sets out the principles on which the assessment is based. Conceptual frameworks facilitate involvement of stakeholders, support harmonized discussions, help to make assumptions explicit, and provide a framework for data analysis and interpretation.Various conceptual frameworks have been developed for different purposes, but as yet no clear taxonomy exists. We propose a three-level taxonomy of conceptual frameworks for use in environmental health impact assessment. At the first level of the taxonomy, structural frameworks show the wide context of the issues at hand. At the second level, relational frameworks describe how the assessment variables are causally related. At the third level, this causal structure is translated into an operational model, which serves as a basis for analysis. The different types of frameworks are complementary and all play a role in the assessment process. The taxonomy is illustrated using a hypothetical assessment of urban brownfield development for residential uses.We suggest that a better understanding of types of conceptual frameworks and their potential roles in the different phases of assessment will contribute to more informed assessments and policies.     

BP神经网络在旧建筑再利用社会评价中的应用

在城市发展进程中现存的旧建筑是拆旧建新还是进行改造,应进行社会影响评价;在此评价过程中要体现以人为本的精神,公众也应参与到评价中来。本文利用BP人工神经网络,将主、客观性评价指标的评价结果经与模糊集所对应的评价值规范化处理后,作为输入单元的输入值,合理地解决主、客观性指标的综合评价问题,可以在社会影响评价中更充分地体现社会上不同团体和个人的利益与观点,有助于旧建筑改造再利用社会评价的开展。     

City Spending on Economic Development Versus Affordable Housing: Does Inter‐City Competition or Local Politics Drive Decisions?

Public choice theory predicts that interjurisdictional competition and the need for a strong tax base severely limit local policy making. City decision makers must pursue developmental or economically advantageous policies such as economic development initiatives and avoid redistributive or fiscally harmful policies such as affordable housing programs. Many social scientists object to the deterministic argument of public choice theory and emphasize the importance of politics in the policy making process. Using regression analysis, I investigate the factors that influence cities to pursue a limited strategy as predicted by public choice theory versus a balanced or more progressive approach favoring affordable housing programs over economic development programs. The results show that inter‐city competition increases the likelihood cities will pursue a limited strategy versus a balanced or more progressive approach. However, political variables also influence local policy decisions. In fact, this analysis indicates that political factors are more important than inter‐city competition in explaining city policy choices.     

灰熵 TOPSIS 理论下的设计—施工一体化影响因素分析

通过查阅相关文献及统计资料,综合考虑了在贫数据、不确定的复杂系统内影响设计—施工一体化程度的多个相关因素。建立了包含技术、经济、规模、环境和风险 5 个层面的指标体系。该体系以 2010~2014 年为时间维,选用主成分分析方法筛选出相关性较大的部分指标。构造出多属性判断矩阵。利用灰熵理论与 TOPSIS 理论相结合,计算出各指标的数值,以综合评价系数为评价依据得出各影响因素重要性的排序。并对于各影响因素重要性提出了促进设计—施工一体化的建议。     

大型会展中心安全分级评价研究与实践

以“如何有效评定大型会展中心综合安全性能”为研究目标。在解析建筑安全分级评价的难点、指标体系和技术构成的基础之上,探讨了以建筑学、安全科学为基础,充分借鉴数学、运筹学、统计学和现代系统论的理论和方法,试图探索构建一个具有学科综合化特征的评价方法体系。并在此基础之上,具体运用贯穿了“质——量”结合思想的模糊层次综合评价法,针对“重庆市国际会议展览中心”进行了基于设计理论研究的安全分级评价实践。目的是为增进设计实践与安全意识的结合,加强建筑安全管理控制,以及促进城市公共安全体系的完善等方面。在实践中,它还是促成建筑环境安全价值实现的有效工具。