燃气负荷及其预测模型

在数理统计学和现代优化方法基础上对已有燃气负荷预测文献进行归纳，从多角度对燃气负荷预测进行分类。指出需要按燃气负荷预测的应用要求，燃气负荷变化特性等具体情况选择预测方法。综述了可有效用于燃气负荷预测的方法和模型。     

能源互联网背景下电网负荷预测设计

能源互联网的提出与发展,决定了电力系统的核心地位。作为电力系统及其自动化的重要研究方向之一,电力系统负荷预测必须符合当前能源互联网的战略布局调整。选取四川省西昌市作为电网负荷预测研究对象,采用灰色数学理论,建立了该地区电网负荷预测数学模型,并应用实例详细介绍了数学模型精度分析、预测值与实际值之间的误差分析以及未来几年内该地区的负荷预测结果。仿真分析结果表明本算法具有较好地预测精度,对该地区电网负荷规划具有一定的辅助指导作用。     

热负荷预测方法评析

在深入研究目前常用的供热负荷预测方法的基础上，对热负荷预测方法进行了科学的分类，重点评析了ARMA、回归分析法，灰色预测方法，人工神经网络方法的优缺点及适用条件，并对热计量供热系统的负荷预测方法进行了探讨。     

基于电力大数据和人工智能的短期负荷预测

负荷预测是电力系统规划、调度、运行、检修中的一项重要内容,也是D5000和OPEN3000平台的重要模块。在"能源互联网"和"互联网+"的现代背景下,电网负荷受多重复杂因素影响。本文分析了如何挖掘快速增长的电力大数据信息,提取各影响因素的特征参量,将其用于短期电力负荷预测。同时,讨论了如何采用现代人工智能算法,分析各因素对短期负荷的作用机理实现精准预测。最后,指出未来的主要研究方向,并对我国电力负荷预测工作的开展提出了相应建议。     

城区需求侧能源规划中的几个关键问题

指出了需求侧能源规划是从底到顶的规划,在需求侧采取降负荷和节能措施可作为供应侧的替代资源。给出了城区精细化负荷预测的流程,提出了基于热电比拟的城区负荷预测状态空间模型的思路;建议在负荷预测中细分建筑类型。分析了第三代分布式能源的技术经济性,并提出了在既有城区更新改造中基于互联网思维的区域能源系统的解决方案。     

城市煤气负荷的预测

根据城市煤气负荷的变化规律，建立了煤气短期负荷预测的三角函数模型，并给出了节假日负荷及突发事件负荷的预测方法，并开发了软件。     

基于负荷密度模型的长沙城区负荷预测

建立了负荷密度模型，分析了使用负荷密度模型进行负荷预测需要考虑的问题，介绍了负荷密度模型参数的取定方法，并以长沙城区为例进行分区负荷预测。     

数据挖掘技术在燃气负荷预测的应用

介绍了数据挖掘技术的基本概念、任务和方法，分析了城市燃气负荷预测的现状和应用方法，探讨了数据挖掘技术在城市燃气负荷预测中的应用。     

基于小波变换的神经网络空调负荷预测研究

基于小波变换的思想建立了递归BP网络模型来预测空调负荷，改进了网络权值、闽值的修改算法，引入了折扣系数法以提高近期预测精度，结合一实例进行了空调逐时冷负荷预测，结果表明该方法预测精度高，适用于空调负荷预测。     

人工神经网络在空调系统负荷预测中的应用

采用理论分析的方法，通过分析国内外在该方面的研究成果，剖析了人工神经网络在空调系统负荷预测中的应用，指出了利用人工神经网络（ANN）具有的高度的并行处理和可完成复杂的输入输出的非线性映射能力，进行空调系统负荷预测精度高、准确度好。ANN是一种有效的空调负荷预测手段。     

降温方式对高温后钢筋混凝土短柱轴压力学性能的影响

采用高温抗压试验炉对有轴压荷载作用的钢筋混凝土短柱在升温、降温及冷却作用后的轴压力学性能进行试验研究,主要研究降温方式对经历不同温度等级的有轴压荷载钢筋混凝土短柱的高温变形特性、高温后轴压承载力、轴压刚度和延性等力学指标的影响规律.结果表明：不同降温方式下轴压荷载使试件产生明显的残余压缩变形,且对高温后的极限承载力、轴压刚度和延性有显著影响;降温方式显著影响高温后钢筋混凝土轴压力学性能,其中浇水降温的影响最为显著.     

Methodology for generating thermal and electric load profiles for designing a cogeneration system

Cogeneration will be always an important concept for energy conversion in the future, since it proposes to optimize the use of the energy resources. In the transformation of conventional systems for operation in the cogeneration mode, there exists the necessity to estimate the electric and thermal load profiles hour by hour, so that the cogeneration system can be optimally designed and thus displace the electric energy that would be used by the conventional systems. This work develops a methodology for estimating the electric and thermal load profiles, hour by hour for each month of the year, from the few normally available data. For the electric profile, annual consumption data of electric energy measured at PUC-Rio, every 15 min in the period of 1 year, has been used to validate this methodology. For the thermal profile, a methodology was developed; it discusses how the input thermal energy can be estimated from values of ambient temperature, internal thermal loads and solar radiation incident on the buildings. As an example of this methodology, a thermal load calculation is detailed for a business building and the results compared to those obtained from an existing methodology. The results obtained with these models, allow more accurate predictions for estimating the electric energy with a generator, over a month period, when its capacity is smaller than the building peak demand. A model was also developed to calculate the contribution of the air conditioning electric energy consumption to the total electric energy load.     

平板千斤顶在澳门观光塔工程中的应用

平板千斤顶可以作为永久性的构件或临时性的工具对结构施加预应力，本文结合澳门观光塔工程，介绍了平板千斤顶作为永久性构件的施工工艺，包括安装、顶张、注浆等。     

荷载作用下高强混凝土的硫酸盐侵蚀

对高强混凝土（ＨＳＣ）和钢纤维高强混凝土（ＳＦＲＨＳＣ）在荷载和硫酸盐侵蚀双因素作用下的性能变化规律进行了实验研究，实验中对试件施加相当于其破坏强度０％、１０％、２５％、５０％的应力，浸泡于５０％的硫酸盐溶液中，经过１２０ｄ的侵蚀，结果表明，在硫酸盐作用下，混凝土性能下降速度很快，荷载的作用使得硫酸盐侵蚀有加剧的趋势。而同一水平的荷载单独作用时，对混凝土性能影响不大。钢纤维对双因素损伤有一定的抑制作用。     

Evaluating rating factor for prestressed concrete girder bridges by nonlinear finite element analysis

This study provides a new approach to evaluate the load carrying capacity in rating factor (RF) of prestressed concrete I type girder bridges utilising nonlinear finite element (FE) analysis. RF has been conventionally calculated either by ultimate strength design (USD) or allowable stress design methods in terms of live load effects. This study introduces nonlinear FE analysis as a new approach to estimate the RF. In general, nonlinear FE analysis is considered as one of the most efficient methods to simulate structural behaviour. This method can also simulate a live load effect, which is very important for the load carrying capacity of structures. To apply nonlinear FE analysis, an FE live load constant was conceptually suggested to estimate the RF. On comparing the RF obtained via the conventional method of USD, it was found that the RF estimated by nonlinear FE analysis approach has almost the same value. Hence, the nonlinear finite element method-based RF methodology can be efficiently used to estimate the load carrying capacity of bridges.     

Prediction of hourly energy consumption in buildings based on a feedback artificial neural network

In this paper a new approach for short-term load prediction in buildings is shown. The method is based on a special kind of artificial neural network (ANN), which feeds back a part of its outputs. This ANN is trained by means of a hybrid algorithm. The new system uses current and forecasted values of temperature, the current load and the hour and the day as inputs. The performance of this predictor was evaluated using real data and results from international contests. The achieved results demonstrate the high precision reached with this system.     

蓄冷空调系统的负荷计算

分析了常规空调系统和蓄冷空调系统负荷计算的不同及逐时负荷分布对蓄冷系统负荷计算的重要性，指出了在蓄冷系统负荷计算时应该注意的问题。     

地下结构荷载的广义反演方法

利用位移反分析方法进行地下结构荷载反演是行之有效的.本文针对地下结构荷载反算存在解的不唯一性和不稳定性,提出地下结构荷载的广义反演方法.借助奇异值分解和广义逆建立地下结构荷载反算的广义最小二乘解估计、广义最小范数解估计和广义最小方差解估计.     

Combined Bayesian statistics and load duration curve method for bacteria nonpoint source loading estimation

Nonpoint source load estimation is an essential part of the development of the bacterial total maximum daily load (TMDL) mandated by the Clean Water Act. However, the currently widely used watershed-receiving water modeling approach is usually associated with a high level of uncertainty and requires long-term observational data and intensive training effort. The load duration curve (LDC) method recommended by the EPA provides a simpler way to estimate bacteria loading. This method, however, does not take into consideration the specific fate and transport mechanisms of the pollutant and cannot address the uncertainty. In this study, a Bayesian statistical approach is applied to the Escherichia coli TMDL development of a stream on the Eastern Shore of Virginia to inversely estimate watershed bacteria loads from the in-stream monitoring data. The mechanism of bacteria transport is incorporated. The effects of temperature, bottom slope, and flow on allowable and existing load calculations are discussed. The uncertainties associated with load estimation are also fully described. Our method combines the merits of LDC, mechanistic modeling, and Bayesian statistics, while overcoming some of the shortcomings associated with these methods. It is a cost-effective tool for bacteria TMDL development and can be modified and applied to multi-segment streams as well.     

分层地基中隧道开挖对邻近刚性桩筏基础竖向影响分析

基于两阶段分析方法：第一阶段采用Loganathan方法计算隧道开挖引起的土体自由场位移,第二阶段采用层状地基中弹性理论法,计算桩和土,桩和桩之间的相互作用,并考虑刚性筏板对桩基的约束作用,提出了一套能够分析层状地基中隧道开挖对刚性筏板群桩基础竖向影响的解析方法。将计算结果与离心试验结果及现有方法计算结果进行对比,得到了较好的一致性,验证了其正确性。并首次对层状地基中桩筏基础承载特性进行了分析,讨论了桩基变形对遮拦效应的削减作用,结果表明此方法意义明确,层状地基模型更符合工程实际情况,适于推广使用。