政府与社会资本合作(PPP)项目风险分担机制研究

随着城市基础设施建设推进,建设资金需求明显增加,政府提倡的PPP融资模式得到大力推广。通过分析PPP模式的基本理论,在充分认识和理解PPP项目风险分担原则的基础上,构建PPP模式融资风险分担框架,并提出各参与方的风险控制能力、风险化解能力和风险偏好来决定PPP项目风险的分担,对PPP项目具有重要的理论和实践指导意义。     

基于ANP-Shapley值的综合管廊PPP项目风险分担研究

我国城市地下综合管廊建设进入快速发展阶段,PPP模式能够有效解决政府财政压力,提高建设运营效率,我国大力推动综合管廊建设,并鼓励采用PPP模式。对于PPP项目,风险合理分担是项目风险管理的关键,通过文献研究和专家访谈法,识别综合管廊PPP项目风险因素,利用合作博弈思想对风险因素进行初步分担,将风险因素分为"政府公共部门承担"、"社会投资者承担"和"双方共担"三类。运用Shapley值法,构建风险分担模型,考虑公私双方风险分担能力,利用网络层次分析法对模型的解进行修正,确定合理的共担风险分担比例。以某综合管廊PPP项目为例,验证模型的合理性,为综合管廊PPP项目风险分担实践提供决策依据。     

基于GRA-TOPSIS的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担

妥善处理好各参与方之间的风险分担问题,以保障城市轨道交通PPP项目成功实施。在国内外研究现状基础上,首先,采用Delphi法对城轨PPP项目的关键风险按不同阶段进行有效识别,考虑风险分担4项原则及项目各个阶段,绘制全生命周期的PPP项目风险分担流程图,并建立基于参与方满意度的风险分担指标体系;其次,将灰色关联分析法和双基准法相结合,充分利用两者优势构建城轨PPP项目风险分担模型,采用层次分析与熵值法确定主客观权重,并借助Matlab软件,选出最适合的参与方作为风险分担的承担者;最后,采用青岛地铁3号线实际案例验证模型的合理性与有效性,并对参与方应承担的风险进行合理划分。通过研究为我国城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担的理论与实践提供参考。     

探讨PPP模式在综合管廊项目中的风险管理

通过分析大量的文献资料,归纳了综合管廊PPP项目风险分担框架,并根据综合管廊PPP项目风险的承担主体进行了综合管廊PPP项目中风险分担研究,为PPP项目风险管理提供了参考依据。     

PPP项目模式风险控制问题探究

风险控制是PPP项目的关键,但目前控制风险的理论尚未完全建立。论文根据PPP项目风险的来源,提出了PPP项目风险控制方法,从立法实现、人才培养、PPP专属监管机构建立、诚信平台建立以及构建快速识别、合理分担风险系统实现对风险的控制。     

PPP模式风险分担管理研究综述

当前我国PPP模式风险分担机制已趋于成熟,但不同类型的项目风险分担机制各有不同.通过对国内近5年来的核心期刊的梳理,从宏观角度总结论述了 PPP模式风险分担管理的三大结构,即风险识别、风险分担原则和风险分担方法.通过CNKI检索,以"PPP"为主题,搜索涉及4种颇具代表性的PPP项目的文献,从微观角度对不同类型PPP项目的风险分担管理进行分析,并总结出相应的风险分担办法,以期为今后该领域的研究提供参考.     

基于HHM的基础设施PPP项目风险识别

风险识别是PPP项目风险控制的关键,也是风险评估与分担的前提基础。阐述基础设施PPP项目的HHM框架,从经济子系统、社会子系统、环境子系统三个方面识别采用PPP模式的城市基础设施项目所存在的风险,并结合PPP项目全寿命周期,得出从项目决策到运营移交过程中可持续表现的项目风险总清单,为PPP项目的风险评估和分担提供参考。     

城市地下综合管廊PPP 项目风险分担研究

制约城市地下综合管廊PPP 项目发展的关键是合理的风险分担问题。项目参与各方之间存在权力不平等、利益诉求差异等因素,使得地下综合管廊PPP 项目中庞杂的风险无法在项目各参与方之间合理分担。依托长春市城区地下综合管廊PPP 项目,针对私营部门各参与方之间的风险分担,引入风险承担能力、风险应对能力、合作机制及风险属性等影响因素,运用熵权-ANP 模型计算风险分担指标主客观组合权重,优化Shapley 值,进而得到风险分担的最优比例。改进后的风险分担机制克服了以往综合管廊PPP 项目风险分担考虑因素不全面、分担方法不科学、承担主体不明确的研究瓶颈,可为地下综合管廊PPP 项目风险分担提供合理的借鉴。     

基于改进TOPSIS法的PPP项目风险初步分担研究

PPP模式下基础设施项目具有投资大、寿命周期长、过程不稳定的特点,项目参与方都面临着极高的风险。因此,建立公平合理的风险分担机制是PPP项目成功实施的关键,而风险的初步分担作为整个分担体系的基础更是起着至关重要的作用。基于此,以PPP项目各参与方对风险的直接控制力、化解能力以及承担偏好为评价指标,提出将向量夹角余弦定义为余弦距离,代替欧式距离对TOPSIS方法进行改进,构建PPP项目风险初步分担模型,将其运用在解决PPP项目风险分担问题上,并提出风险分担的判定标准,最终确定各风险的承担方。实例分析表明,该方法具有实用性和合理性。     

城市轨道交通PPP融资模式风险分担机制研究

PPP融资模式成功的一个关键因素是PPP风险管理,而风险的识别与分担是风险管理的前提与基础.首先分析PPP模式的内涵及优势,然后运用检查表法和RBS法,通过汇总归类,全面系统地识别城市轨道交通PPP融资风险,同时依据PPP项目风险分担原则,建立风险分担流程模型,运用线性规划设计模型对风险分担进行理论分析,达到PPP项目各参与方对风险分担方案的整体满意度最大,最后根据上述方法及模型,通过调研汇总得出城市轨道交通PPP融资风险分担的一般结果.     

政府委托人与代建人的风险分配研究

基于项目全寿命周期风险分析原则,研究代建制中政府委托人、代建人在项目决策阶段、实施阶段(设计、施工阶段)、使用阶段的风险承担问题,提出了政府委托人与代建人的风险分配原则,并依据该风险分配原则得到了政府委托人与代建人的风险分配结果。     

中国风景园林设计研究10年观（2011—2020年）

设计实践的主观性和创造性思维活动造成了开展设计学术研究的困境—如何将通过设计实践获得研究成果的过程纳入学术研究体系,成为设计学科面对的共同问题。设计研究作为实践和研究的方法论正在试图对此进行回应。首先明确了设计研究的边界与分类标准,在此基础上爬梳了最近10年(2011—2020年)发表于《中国园林》和《风景园林》2本刊物的设计研究成果,运用文献计量学相关理论方法,对设计研究及3种主要模式—关于设计之研究(RaD)、为了设计之研究(RfD)、通过设计之研究(RtD)的发展特点与趋势进行系统分析,发现风景园林设计研究在深度、广度和学术质量上都有显著提高,但也存在以下现象:RaD中的设计理论与设计批评发展相对停滞;RfD由服务于特定对象的设计前预研究更多地转变为有助于建构设计过程的知识研究;在为数不多的RtD文献中,学者更偏向于采用后实证主义和变革主义的方法进行研究。基于风景园林设计研究分类的讨论有助于学者跳脱出固有视角,认识设计与研究的关系,明确自身的研究倾向。     

PPP项目范式选择与风险分配的关系研究

基于15个案例,分析PPP项目三种范式选择方案与风险分配之间的相关关系,结果发现:一部分项目风险的分配方案与范式选择无关,这类风险的主要特征是产生主体明确且能够防范,风险事件的发生直接针对PPP项目;另一部分项目风险分配方案与范式选择高度相关,其相关关系体现为随着范式私有化程度的提高,民间实体承担的风险也在逐渐增大,而且随着范式选择的不同,风险转移的时机和程度也有所差异,这类风险的主要特征是风险事件产生于政府或第三方,民间实体没有能力进行防范,风险损失需要在政府和民间实体之间进行分配。研究结论可为提高我国PPP项目风险分配的科学性提供指导和借鉴。     

Critical success factors for PPP/PFI projects in the UK construction industry

Public–private partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly used in the United Kingdom's public facilities and services provision through the Private Finance Initiative (PFI). Despite some casualties, PPP/PFI projects have been undertaken successfully, but the reasons for success are not entirely clear. Questionnaire survey research examined the relative importance of 18 potential critical success factors (CSF) for PPP/PFI construction projects in the UK. The results show that the three most important factors are: ‘a strong and good private consortium’, ‘appropriate risk allocation’ and ‘available financial market’. Factor analysis revealed that appropriate factor groupings for the 18 CSFs are: effective procurement, project implementability, government guarantee, favourable economic conditions and available financial market. These findings should influence policy development towards PPPs and the manner in which partners go about the development of PFI projects.     

Financial viability of school retrofit projects for clients and ESCOs

The energy performance contracting market is potentially substantial but very little work has been undertaken to understand the characteristics of successful projects. This study uses a probabilistic analysis of four hypothetical projects in the UK schools sector under the 2014 policy regime, combined with qualitative interviews with practitioners, to explore the conditions for a viable project. It finds that the proposed approach has the potential to allow more detailed exploration of project structures and scope for creating greater understanding of likely returns and the factors affecting them. Evidence is found that the use of deterministic risk screening techniques such as simple payback results in viable opportunities being overlooked. The risk profiles for clients and contractors (energy service companies – ESCOs) are not symmetrical and they will each find different projects more attractive. The results suggest that greater consideration needs to be given to the precise risk allocation between client and contractor to ensure that likely returns are properly understood. This study demonstrates a method for exploring project characteristics that can be used to understand their impacts on the financial returns for clients and contractors.     

Fuzzy adaptive decision making model for selection balanced risk allocation

The unbalanced allocation of risks among the contracting parties is an important decision leading to increase of the total cost of a specific project and affects the overall relationship between the contracting parties. Due to common risk allocation decision-making process is based on experiential knowledge, is subjective and implicit. This paper presents a fuzzy adaptive decision making model for selection of balanced risk allocation which transforms the linguistic principles and experiential expert knowledge into a more usable and systematic quantitative-based analysis by using the fuzzy logic. The objectives of balanced risk allocation are developed based on the concept of Competence-Tendency trade-off. The proposed model integrates fuzzy logic qualitative approach and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) adaptive capabilities to evaluate allocation of project risks and determine best party to bear each one. Results from this model show its high capability in addressing most proper risk allocation with least contingency applied to the owner.     

太原市柴村桥立交照明设计方案

以太原市柴村桥立交照明设计为例,通过三种立交照明方案,对灯具布置形式、光源选择、配电控制、线路敷设及接地保护等进行了研究,并分析比较了各种照明方案的优缺点,以选择出节能、科学的照明方案。     

社会偏好视角下合同风险分担条款诱导承包人尽善履约行为的机理研究

建设项目价值增值目标的实现依赖于承包人实施尽善履约行为,因而发包人利用合同风险分担条款来激发承包人尽善履约行为就显得尤为重要。选取信任感知和公平感知作为双元中介变量,探究合同风险分担条款对具有社会偏好的承包人尽善履约行为激励的有效途径。结果表明:合同风险分担条款有利于激发承包人尽善履约,也能诱发承包人公平感知,但是承包人的公平感知并不能诱导其实施尽善履约行为;合同风险分担条款对承包人信任感知有正向影响,且信任感知在合同条款柔性与承包人尽善履约行为关系中发挥了部分中介作用。     

A critical review of the application of TCE in the interpretation of risk allocation in PPP contracts

Along with the rise of public–private partnerships (PPPs) as a mainstream procurement system, we have seen a growing interest in studies of risk allocation in these projects. One of the serious academic endeavours is to apply both transaction cost economics (TCE) and the resource-based view (RBV) to explain risk allocation patterns found in PPP projects. The existing literature along these lines is deficient in three aspects: inappropriate choice of unit of analysis; poor specification of governance structure; and misinterpretation of asset specificity. A way for improvement is to analyse risk allocation in the context of PPP procurement in its entirety.     

Dynamic modeling of the quantitative risk allocation in construction projects

Allocation of construction risks between owners and their contractors has a significant impact on the total construction costs. This research presents an integrated fuzzy-system dynamics approach for quantitative risk allocation. All the factors affecting the risk allocation process are modeled using system dynamics approach. Fuzzy logic is integrated into system dynamics modeling structure to account for the existing uncertainties. The values of different factors that have an uncertain nature are determined by fuzzy numbers. The application of Zadeh's extension principle and interval arithmetic is proposed for the system dynamics to enable the system outcomes to be presented considering uncertainties in the input variables. Using the proposed integrated fuzzy-SD model, the project cost is simulated at different percentages of risk allocation. The optimum percentage of risk allocation is determined as a point in which the project cost is minimized. The performance of the proposed method is assessed by employing the method in a tunneling project.