基于广义条件谱的某核电厂安全壳多元地震易损性分析

本文基于我国场地广义条件谱,对我国某核电厂安全壳进行了多元地震易损性研究。给出了我国场地向量型概率地震危险性分析与分解理论,提出了我国场地广义条件谱生成方法和步骤,生成了我国算例厂址广义条件谱,选取了场地相关地震动记录,基于多元地震易损性分析方法,生成了算例厂址安全壳结构多元地震易损性曲面。分析结果表明：核电厂安全壳地震易损性分析结果对多个地震动强度参数都较为敏感,基于增量动力分析等解析地震易损性方法,能够得到更为精细化易损性分析结果。考虑多个地震动强度参数的地震易损性分析结果,可为更为精细化核电厂地震风险提供研究基础。     

核电厂安全壳地震概率风险评估

地震概率风险评估可分别基于地震风险解析函数和风险卷积函数实现。本文推导了地震风险解析函数，分析了地震风险解析函数蕴含的两个基本假设和两个近似，分别基于地震风险解析函数和风险卷积函数计算了我国某核电厂安全壳地震风险。结果表明：采用幂指数函数近似地震危险性极值Ⅱ型分布对风险结果无影响；对于算例厂址，地震风险解析函数中KH和kⅠ为常数的近似会高估核电厂安全壳面临的地震风险；我国核电厂安全壳结构地震风险较低，具有较大安全裕量。建议采用地震风险解析函数初步评估我国核电厂安全壳地震风险。     

核电厂安全壳近场地震动下易损性分析

安全壳结构作为核电厂最重要的结构之一,其地震易损性是核电厂结构概率地震安全评价工作中关注的重点。结合非线性有限元分析技术和增量动力分析方法,对核电厂安全壳在近场地震动作用下的易损性展开分析。此外,为克服传统基于顶点位移的安全壳结构整体损伤指标的局限性,本文提出了基于能量的整体损伤指标,并验证其有效性。最后提出了考虑地震易损性参数统计不确定性的易损性曲线构造方法。研究结果表明:本文提出的安全壳结构整体损伤指标能很好地反映安全壳结构整体变形特性,并且其变异性小于基于顶点位移整体损伤指标的变异性。统计不确定性对安全壳结构不同损伤性能水准下对应的易损性曲线的整体影响可以忽略,但对易损性曲线下尾部分有一定影响。      

考虑竖向地震动影响的某核电安全壳地震易损性研究

核电厂等重要基础设施的抗震设计和评估需要考虑竖向地震动影响,目前竖向地震动对核电安全壳地震易损性影响研究还较少。本文进行了考虑竖向地震动影响的核电安全壳地震易损性研究,分析了以水平向场地相关谱为目标谱选取的地震动记录的不足,提出了同时匹配水平和竖向场地相关谱的地震动选取方法,选取了指定场址的水平和竖向地震动记录。采用增量动力分析方法,基于选取的水平和竖向地震动,分别进行核电安全壳水平向地震动作用下与水平和竖向地震动联合作用下的易损性分析。采用基于混合易损性数据的易损性分析方法,得到了具有置信度的易损性曲线和高置信度低失效概率。分析结果表明：竖向地震动对安全壳抗震能力和地震易损性有较大影响。     

关于地震危险性曲线形状参数和地震动反应谱调整系数的探讨

本文概述了美国核管会(NRC)在管理导则RG1.208中推荐确定电厂特定地震振动的基于性能(PB)的方法,该方法用来确定新建核电厂的安全停堆地震动(SSE)。对于美国中东部地区(CEUS),RG1.208中推荐的调整系数为DF=max(1,0.6×AR0.8),其中AR来源于概率地震危险性分析(PSHA)的结果(地震危险性曲线)。以美国东部运行核电厂址的地震动峰值加速度(PGA)超越概率曲线和物项易损性曲线为例,论述了地震动反应谱调整系数(DF)的确定过程。基于我国核电厂址的概率地震危险性分析结果,采用基于性能(PB)方法的思路,给出了适用于我国的地震动反应谱调整系数的近似公式。     

核电厂厂址设计地震动参数影响关键因素分析

基于中国核电厂选址的46个工程场地地震安全性评价资料,分析不同地震危险性分析方法计算结果对厂址设计地震动参数确定的控制作用,并对地震危险性分析概率方法计算结果及确定性方法中的构造地震影响、弥散地震影响计算结果进行统计分析。研究表明:在地震活动性较弱地区,厂址设计地震动参数主要由确定性方法计算结果控制,峰值加速度和高频加速度反应谱值由弥散地震计算结果控制,在这类地区基于厂址设计地震动的核电工程建设将具有更高的抗震安全裕度;在地震活动性相对较强地区,厂址设计地震动参数更可能由概率方法计算结果控制,部分厂址的概率方法计算结果(特别是低频加速度反应谱值)远大于确定性方法计算结果;中国核电厂厂址设计地震动参数确定总体上具有较高保守性。     

基于随机模拟一致危险性谱的核电厂抗震性能分析

为改善概率地震危险性分析对震源传播特性考虑的不足，提出采用随机模拟与概率地震危险性分析结合的方法，充分考虑反应谱生成中震源机制、传播路径和场地效应等影响，生成更为精确的一致危险性谱。结合核电厂具体场地条件对场地近两千年的历史地震进行模拟，并生成同一超越概率下的一致危险性谱（UHS）。为了比较已有的厂址谱（SL-2）和安评报告中的UHS及美国RG1.60谱所生成的地震动对结构抗震性能的影响，以某核电结构为例，建立三维有限元模型，进行动力时程分析。结果表明：不同反应谱对结构的动力响应差别较大，UHS与SL-2对结构的响应较为接近，且略大于SL-2，但小于美国RG1.60谱。基于随机模拟方法生成的一致危险性谱可为核电厂抗震设计提供参考。     

设备地震易损性分析方法研究

地震PSA可以找到核电站在地震中的薄弱环节,是评价地震对核电厂影响的一种有效的方法,易损性分析是其中重要的一个步骤.本文介绍了设备地震易损性的概念,给出了地震易损性的数学模型,讨论了设备在地震情况下的失效模式判定问题,重点研究了易损性参数及其量化的两种方法:基于分析的方法和基于测试的方法,最后得出中值易损性、随机性和不确定性分布以及HCLPF(高可信度低失效概率)能力的计算公式.另外,设备地震易损性分析需要使用真实地震经验数据、测试数据和分析数据,这些都需根据特定电厂的需要进行收集和完善.     

地震危险性分析不确定性表征

概述地震危险性分析中不确定性的来源、类别、不同类别不确定性的特征。采用逻辑树模型处理不确定性,通过算例说明不确定性对厂址地震危险性评价结果的影响。讨论在进行核电厂地震风险评价时如何考虑地震危险性分析中的不确定性。     

高温气冷堆蓄电池组地震易损性研究

为验证核电厂发生地震外部事件时的电力安全，需要对蓄电池组进行抗震鉴定试验。本文以高温气冷堆（HTR）核电厂安全级蓄电池组为研究对象、以安全级蓄电池组抗震鉴定试验数据和工程经验为基础，通过识别、量化蓄电池组的地震易损性变量，并应用基于试验的易损性分析法推导出地震易损性曲线和高置信度低失效概率（HCLPF）抗震能力。研究结果表明，安全级蓄电池组的抗震能力远高于核电厂设计基准地震动需求。      

Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Containment

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment could be respectively conducted using analytical function of seismic risk and risk convolution function. In this paper, analytical function of seismic risk was conducted, two basic assumptions and two approximations of analytical function of seismic risk were analyzed, and seismic probabilistic risk analysis of a nuclear power plant containment of our country were respectively conducted using analytical function of seismic risk and risk convolution function. The results show that there is no influence on seismic risk results using a power exponent function approximating seismic hazard distribution following extreme value Ⅱ type distribution. For the case of this paper, seismic risk of a nuclear power plant containment is overestimated based on analytical function of seismic risk, which uses constant KH and kⅠ. Seismic risk of a containment is low in our country, which has a large safety margin. It is proposed that the preliminary seismic risk assessment of a nuclear power plant containment of our country using analytical function of seismic risk should be conducted.     

The seismic reliability of VVER-1000 NPP prestressed containment building

The failure probability assessment of the containment building is an essential feature of the Level 2 PSA studies of nuclear power plants. The primary purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the methodology of evaluating containment seismic induced probability of failure without containment pressurization. The Loviisa, Finland site is one of the most seismically stable in the world and the numerically evaluated seismic induced failure probabilities are not representative for other sites. In addition, the containment concept described in this paper is not the typical Russian design which uses helical tendons in the cylindrical part of the structure and has a ring girder at the spring line of the structure. So the conclusions reached are applicable only to the containment configuration described in the paper. The geometry of the containment was determined by its preliminary design. The seismic hazard of the plant site was assessed during Level 1 PSA of the Loviisa plant. The initial information for seismic fragility analysis of the containment is the seismic response of the structure. The structural model for response analysis was the stick model. The stress analysis of the containment was carried out using the shell element model. The fragility evaluation of the containment was performed with the PROSAN-program. The structure was modeled as a parallel system consisting of the most heavily stressed elements. The resulting fragility curve gives the conditional probability of failure as a function of peak ground acceleration. The seismic hazard and the fragility were convolved to obtain the annual nonexceedance probability distribution for the collapse frequency of the structure.     

Methods to derive seismic fragility of NPP components: A summary

Seismic fragility of structure, system or component (SSC) is the probability of its reaching a limit state, for a given seismic demand. It is evaluated in terms of ground motion parameters, which is generally peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragility of a nuclear power plant (NPP) is derived from the fragility of its SSC. Seismic qualification, prerequisite for determination of seismic fragility of the SSC of a NPP, is conducted by either direct method involving analysis and testing; or indirect one involving experience based method. The paper surveys and summarizes the methods available to derive the seismic fragility of SSC(s) of an NPP, which are qualified by direct as well as indirect methods.     

Numerical computation of fragility curves for NPP equipment

The seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology is a popular approach for evaluating the risk of failure of engineering structures due to earthquake. In this framework, fragility curves express the conditional probability of failure of a structure or component for a given seismic input motion parameter A, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration. The failure probability due to a seismic event is obtained by convolution of fragility curves with seismic hazard curves. In general, a log-normal model is used in order to estimate fragilities. In nuclear engineering practice, these fragilities are determined using safety factors with respect to design earthquake. This approach allows to determine fragility curves based on design study but largely draws on expert judgement and simplifying assumptions. When a more realistic assessment of seismic fragility is needed, simulation-based statistical estimation of fragility curves is more appropriate. In this paper, we will discuss statistical estimation of parameters of fragility curves and present results obtained for a reactor coolant system of nuclear power plant. We have performed non-linear dynamic response analyses using artificially generated strong motion time histories. Uncertainties due to seismic loads as well as model uncertainties are taken into account and propagated using Monte Carlo simulation.     

Seismic individual plant examination of external events of US nuclear power plants: insights and implications

As part of the implementation of the severe accident policy, nuclear power plants in the US are conducting the individual plant examination of external events (IPEEE). Seismic events are treated in these IPEEEs by either a seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) or a seismic margin assessment. The major elements of a seismic PRA are the seismic hazard analysis, seismic fragility evaluation of structures and equipment and systems analysis using event tree and fault tree analysis techniques to develop accident sequences and calculate their frequencies of occurrence. The seismic margin assessment is a deterministic evaluation of the seismic margin of the plant beyond the design basis earthquake. A review level earthquake is selected and some of the components that are on the success paths are screened out as exceeding the review level earthquake; the remaining ones are evaluated for their seismic capacity using information from the original plant design criteria, test data and plant walkdown. The IPEEEs of over 100 operating nuclear power plants are nearing completion. This paper summarizes the lessons learned in conducting the IPEEEs and their applicability to nuclear power plants outside of the United States.     

Development of the site-specific uniform hazard spectra for Korean nuclear power plant sites

A seismic risk analysis has been performed to evaluate the seismic safety of a nuclear power plant for strong earthquakes beyond a design earthquake level. A site-specific median spectrum has generally been used for a seismic fragility analysis of structures and equipment in Korean nuclear power plants as a part of a probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The site-specific response spectrum, however, does not represent the same probability of an exceedance over entire frequency range of interest. The site-specific uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) is more appropriate for use in a seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) than the site-specific spectrum, since there are only a few strong motion data and seismological information for the nuclear plant sites in Korea. In this study, the uniform hazard spectra were developed using the available seismic hazard data for four Korean NPP sites.     

Seismic fragilities for nuclear power plant risk studies

Seismic fragilities of critical structures and equipment are developed as families of conditional failure frequency curves plotted against peak ground acceleration. The procedure is based on available data combined with judicious extrapolation of design information on plant structures and equipment. Representative values of fragility parameters for typical modern nuclear power plants are provided. Based on the fragility evaluation for about a dozen nuclear power plants, it is proposed that unnecessary conservatism existing in current seismic design practice could be removed by properly accounting for inelastic energy absorption capabilities of structures. The paper discusses the key contributors to seismic risk and the significance of possible correlation between component failures and potential design and construction errors.