多区双重介质复合气藏渗流数学模型及其压力动态

四川盆地大多数气藏属于裂缝孔隙型气藏,气藏非均质性强.经典的径向均质复合试井解释模型与气藏实际情况不相符,解释结果与实际地质情况出现抵触现象.针对这种情况,建立了多区双重孔隙介质复合地层模型,求得了该模型的拉氏空间解,分析了其典型的压力动态特征,并对影响因素可能对曲线产生的影响进行了分析.     

无线网状网技术与应用

无线网状网(WMNs)由网状路由器节点和客户机节点组成,其中的网状路由器节点组成了无线网状网的网络骨干,其移动性很小。他们一起为无线网状网和其他常规无线网络的客户机节点提供网络的无线接入。WMNs技术结合了中心式控制的蜂窝网与分布式控制的无线自组织网的优点,可有效克服这两种技术的缺陷并显著提高无线网络的性能,已经成为下一代无线通信网络的研究热点之一。WMNs可为无线个域网、局域网、校园网、城域网的一系列应用提供高速无线宽带接入服务。虽然目前WMNs技术发展很快,但其协议栈各层仍存在许多有待研究的课题。首先简要介绍了无线网状网的结构与特点;随后重点分析了其主要的几个应用领域;最后探讨了WMNs各协议层的研究现状与关键技术,并分析了该技术存在的问题及未来的研究方向。     

Long-term energy scenarios for Mexico: Policy options for carbon savings and main barriers

This paper shows that possibilities exist for maintaining current energy-related carbon emissions per capita in Mexico at almost constant levels in the long term. It is argued, however, that the identified carbon emissions reductions will not be achieved easily or rapidly, as they require a restructuring of Mexico's current technological base and an unusual degree of coordination among the government, lending institutions, equipment manufacturers, and final users. Such changes also will entail surmounting major institutional and financial barriers and creating a better international environment for technology transfer and capital lending.     

南水北调中线水源工程的突变多准则评价

应用突变多准则评价法对南水北调中线水源工程项目的多方案比选作出评价决策。该方法为专家决策系统提供一种数学方法 ,以便用计算机实现多目标、多层次、多方案的评价决策。     

Use of climate scenarios to aid in decision analysis for interannual water supply planning

This work addresses the issue of climate change in the context of water resource planning on the time scale of a few years. Planning on this time scale generally ignores the role of climate change. However, where the climate of a region has already shifted, the use of historical data for planning purposes may be misleading. In order to test this, a case study is conducted for a region, the Australian Capital Territory, where long term drought is raising concerns of a possible climate shift. The issue is cast in terms of a particular planning decision; the option to augment water supply in the next few years to hedge against the drought persisting. A set of climate scenarios are constructed for the region corresponding to the historical climate regime and to regimes where progressively greater levels of change are assumed to have already taken place (5%, 10%, 20% reductions in mean rainfall). Probabilities of the drought persisting are calculated for each of the scenarios. The results show substantial increases in the probability of the drought persisting for even moderate reductions in mean rainfall. The sensitivity of the decision to augment supply to the scenario results depends ultimately on the planners tolerable thresholds for the probability of the drought persisting. The use of different scenarios enables planners to explore the sensitivity of the decision in terms of their risk tolerance to ongoing drought and to their degree of belief in each of the scenarios tested.     

大凌河流域典型水生植物微生物群落吸附特征试验分析

本文采用高通测序方法对大凌河流域五刺金鱼藻、格菱、狐尾藻、水蓼及芦苇5种水生植物不同季节的微生物群落进行试验分析,分析表明:藻类密度在沉水植物表层要高于浮叶植物表层,微生物群落在浮叶植物根部的结构与其表面存在明显差异。各水生植物的优势生物群落依次为变形菌、梭菌、柔膜菌、鞭脂杆菌、杆菌、疣微菌门,且各微生物群落在季节丰度上存在明显差异性。由此可见,水环境对生物群落的影响要高于植物类型。研究成果可为大凌河流域生态修复工程提供重要理论依据。     

一类非自衡对象的典型反馈型PID控制

针对一类非自衡对象,提出了一种基于典型反馈模型的PID控制器(TF-PID);采用全极点型逼近方法对被控对象的时滞环节做近似处理,并在内模控制原理的基础之上导出一种基于典型反馈模型的PID控制器参数整定策略,从而得到PID控制器的整定参数;仿真结果表明,所设计的控制方法具有更优的设定值跟踪性能和干扰抑制性能,并且实现二者分离控制。     

基于三维特征向量的非侵入式电热负荷细分算法

非侵入式负荷监测分解（NILMD）技术是当前居民用能服务深化提升和电力供需互动的重要数据获取手段,然而当前工程上应用广泛的事件驱动型NILMD技术一直无法准确细化分解电热负荷。针对这一问题,文中提出了一种基于三维特征向量的典型电热负荷细化分解算法。首先,基于有功、无功功率和电流谐波等电气负荷特征采用事件检测方法提取电热事件,在有功功率的基础上,引入运行时长、频繁启停次数等非电气负荷特征共同构建三维特征向量电器模型。然后,采用序贯覆盖法设计典型电热负荷细化分解命题学习规则和细化分解算法。最后,基于实证实验数据进行分解验证,发现4种典型电热负荷的细化分解准确率超过85%。实验结果表明,文中所提典型电热负荷细化分解算法有效地提高了4种典型电热负荷分解的准确率。     

Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios

Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020 s and increase in the 2030 s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050 are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from-7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.     

Anticipatory network models of multicriteria decision-making processes

In this article, we will investigate the properties of a compromise solution selection method based on modelling the consequences of a decision as factors influencing the decision making in subsequent problems. Specifically, we assume that the constraints and preference structures in the (k?+?1)st multicriteria optimisation problem depend on the values of criteria in the k-th problem. To make a decision in the initial problem, the decision maker should take into account the anticipated outcomes of each linked future decision problem. This model can be extended to a network of linked decision problems, such that causal relations are defined between the time-ordered nodes. Multiple edges starting from a decision node correspond to different future scenarios of consequences at this node. In addition, we will define the relation of anticipatory feedback, assuming that some decision makers take into account the anticipated future consequences of their decisions described by a network of optimisers ? a class of information processing units introduced in this article. Both relations (causal and anticipatory) form a feedback information model, which makes possible a selection of compromise solutions taking into account the anticipated consequences. We provide constructive algorithms to solve discrete multicriteria decision problems that admit the above preference information structure. An illustrative example is presented in Section 4. Various applications of the above model, including the construction of technology foresight scenarios, are discussed in the final section of this article.