Accurate ensemble pruning with PL-bagging

Ensemble pruning deals with the selection of base learners prior to combination in order to improve prediction accuracy and efficiency. In the ensemble literature, it has been pointed out that in order for an ensemble classifier to achieve higher prediction accuracy, it is critical for the ensemble classifier to consist of accurate classifiers which at the same time diverse as much as possible. In this paper, a novel ensemble pruning method, called PL-bagging, is proposed. In order to attain the balance between diversity and accuracy of base learners, PL-bagging employs positive Lasso to assign weights to base learners in the combination step. Simulation studies and theoretical investigation showed that PL-bagging filters out redundant base learners while it assigns higher weights to more accurate base learners. Such improved weighting scheme of PL-bagging further results in higher classification accuracy and the improvement becomes even more significant as the ensemble size increases. The performance of PL-bagging was compared with state-of-the-art ensemble pruning methods for aggregation of bootstrapped base learners using 22 real and 4 synthetic datasets. The results indicate that PL-bagging significantly outperforms state-of-the-art ensemble pruning methods such as Boosting-based pruning and Trimmed bagging.     

Yield improvement and yield variability reduction in an EOQ model with planned shortages and random yield

This paper reports the results of an investigation of a set of continuous time, constant demand inventory models under the condition of yield uncertainty. Specifically, the impact of yield improvement programs on lot size, backorder level, and the resulting costs are examined. Models for improving yield rate and reducing yield variability are developed and examined through a series of numerical exercises. In addition, a model for the simultaneous improvement of yield rate and yield variability is presented for the case where there is a relationship between the mean and variance of the yield distribution. In all cases, investment programs improve the picture with respect to manufacturing yield for processes which are not necessarily under statistical control.     

A stochastic model for localized disturbances and its applications

A stochastic model for local disturbances, particularly for a temporal harmonic with random modulations in amplitude and/or phase, is proposed in this paper. Results for the second moment responses of a linear single-degree-of-freedom system to this type of stochastic loading demonstrate a significant change in response characteristics due to a small uncertainty. A local phenomenon may last much longer and resonance may be smeared to a broad range. Integrated with wavelet transform, the proposed approach may be used to model a random process with non-stationary frequency content. Especially, it can be effectively used for Monte Carlo simulation to generate large size of samples that have similar characteristics in time and frequency domains as a pre-selected mother sample has. The technique has a great potential for the case where uncertainty study is warranted but the available samples are limited.     

Probabilistic analysis of a static frame model

This paper describes our efforts during our participation in the Sandia Validation Workshop. The focus of the paper is the calibration of material models and simulation of random fields to characterize the variations of material properties across spatial field. Both parametric and non-parametric methods were used to represent uncertainty. Part of the challenge of this problem is the small amount of data that is available for the necessary probabilistic analyses in support of calibration, validation, accreditation and prediction activities. The analysis methods and corresponding results are described.     

Relationships between urbanization and the oak resource of the Minneapolis/St. Paul Metropolitan area from 1991 to 1998

Urbanization was associated with loss and transformation of the oak forest in the Twin Cities (Minneapolis and St. Paul) metropolitan area (TCMA) over a recent 7-year interval. Between 1991 and 1998, urbanization increased based on several indicators: population density, area of developed land, and area of impervious surface—total impervious area and area within three classes of increasing degree of imperviousness (protected, affected, and degraded). We quantified relationships between changes in urbanization and changes in several parameters describing the oak forest at the scale of ecological subsection. Increased total and affected impervious area were strongly correlated with decreased area of oak forest when changes of the urbanization indicators and oak were expressed as percentages of the subsection area. Relationships were reversed when changes were expressed as percentages of the 1991 values. Increased population density was strongly correlated with increased loss in numbers and increased isolation of oak patches, but weakly correlated with loss of oak forest area. This is the first study to quantify relationships between changes in urbanization and changes in a specific forest cover type. Our results demonstrate complexities of urbanization impacts on a metropolitan forest resource, and highlight the importance of selected variables, spatial and temporal scales, and expressions of change when quantifying these relationships.     

Retrospective mapping of burnt areas in Central Siberia using a modification of the normalised difference water index

The boreal forest contains almost half the total carbon pool of world forest ecosystems, and so has a very significant role in global biogeochemical cycles. The flux of greenhouse gases in and out of these forests is influenced strongly by disturbances such as diseases, logging and predominantly fire. It is important to quantify these disturbances to enable the modelling of major greenhouse gases. However, because of the remoteness and vastness of the boreal forest, little data is available on the type, extent, frequency and severity of these disturbances in Siberia. For burnt areas, two of the more responsive wavelengths are the short wave infra-red (SWIR) and the near infra-red (NIR). These produce a vegetation index, the normalised difference SWIR (NDSWIR) capable of detecting retrospective disturbances. Here we combine the NDSWIR from MODIS imagery acquired in the summer of 2003 with thermal anomaly data from 1992 to 2003 to detect and date areas which burnt at some point between 1992 and 2003. The semi-automated method is called SWIR and Thermal ANomalies for Detecting Disturbances (STANDD) and is complemented by an Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) differencing method using MODIS 2002 and 2003 imagery to ensure reliable detection of area burnt in the year of image acquisition (i.e. 2003). The area of this study covers approximately 3 million km² stretching from Lake Baikal in the south to the Laptev Sea in the north, above the Arctic Circle. Landsat ETM+ images were used to validate the shape and areal extent of the burnt areas resulting in an 81% overall accuracy with a kappa coefficient of agreement of 0.63.     

Cycle detection using a stack

We present an algorithm for detecting periodicity in sequences produced by repeated application of a given function. Our algorithm uses logarithmic memory with high probability, runs in linear time, and is guaranteed to stop within the second loop through the cycle. We also present a partitioning technique that offers a time/memory tradeoff. Our algorithm is especially well suited for sequences where the cycle length is typically small compared to the length of the acyclic prefix.     

Response level crossing rate of a linear system excited by a partially specified Gaussian load process

The problem of determining the maximum mean response level crossing rate of a linear system driven by a partially specified Gaussian load process has been considered. The partial specification of the load is given only in terms of its total average energy. The critical input power spectral (PSD) function, which maximizes the mean response level crossing rate, is obtained. The critical input PSD turns out to be highly narrow-banded which fails to capture the erratic nature of the excitation. Consequently, the trade-off curve between the maximum mean response level crossing rate and the maximum disorder in the input process, quantified in terms of its entropy rate, has been generated. The method of Pareto optimization is used to tackle the conflicting objectives of the simultaneous maximization of the mean response level crossing rate and the input entropy rate. The non-linear multi-objective optimization has been carried out using a recently developed multi-criteria genetic algorithm scheme. Illustrative example of determining the critical input of an axially vibrating rod, excited by a partially specified stationary Gaussian load process, has been considered.     

Comparison of finite element reliability methods

The spectral stochastic finite element method (SSFEM) aims at constructing a probabilistic representation of the response of a mechanical system, whose material properties are random fields. The response quantities, e.g. the nodal displacements, are represented by a polynomial series expansion in terms of standard normal random variables. This expansion is usually post-processed to obtain the second-order statistical moments of the response quantities. However, in the literature, the SSFEM has also been suggested as a method for reliability analysis. No careful examination of this potential has been made yet. In this paper, the SSFEM is considered in conjunction with the first-order reliability method (FORM) and with importance sampling for finite element reliability analysis. This approach is compared with the direct coupling of a FORM reliability code and a finite element code. The two procedures are applied to the reliability analysis of the settlement of a foundation lying on a randomly heterogeneous soil layer. The results are used to make a comprehensive comparison of the two methods in terms of their relative accuracies and efficiencies.