Does Japan’s accession to the Trans-Pacific Partnership mean an opportunity or a threat to the US textile industry? A quantitative evaluation

This study provides a quantitative evaluation on the potential impact of the implementation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the economic interests in the US textile industry, particularly with regard to Japan’s accession to the agreement. By adopting the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model based on the GTAP8 database, results of the study show that: first, trade creation effect of the TPP would result in an increase of the US textile exports to other TPP members; however, with Japan’s accession to the TPP, the potential expansion of the US textile exports would be substantially offset. Second, the TPP would negatively affect the US textile exports to the North American Free Trade Agreement and CAFTA regions, particularly in the case when Japan becomes a TPP member. Third, the TPP would expand the two-way intra-industry trade between the United States and Japan for textiles. Fourth, the TPP would cause an expansion of the trade deficit as well as a decline of domestic production in the US textile industry, particularly in the case when Japan becomes a TPP member. Findings of this study augment our understanding of the Textile and apparel (T&A)-specific sectoral impact of the TPP and provide valuable inputs supporting the T&A sectoral negotiation under the TPP.     

Identifying global competition and devising a biohydrogen roadmap on a continental level

This study elucidates how advances in biohydrogen production technology facilitate the development of biohydrogen and increase global competition. A dynamic economic model, the “Global Trade Analysis Project (Dynamic GTAP)”, forecasts the competition and roadmaps of biohydrogen development in Asia, Europe, Latin America, North America and Oceania. Biohydrogen appears to be a viable technology to generate hydrogen in Latin America and Oceania. The two continents will be the fastest ones to achieve the technology roadmap target before 2060. Development of biohydrogen in Europe and North America will slow down. Asia lags behind last in global competition in this sector. Results of this study provide a valuable reference for decision makers using possible biohydrogen roadmaps in continental levels to improve the likelihood of successfully transiting to a biohydrogen economy in national level.     

Macroanalysis of the economic and environmental impacts of a 2005-2025 European Union bioenergy policy using the GTAP model and life cycle assessment

This paper describes a new tool to assess the medium- and long-term economic and environmental impacts of large-scale policies. The approach - macro life cycle assessment (M-LCA) - is based on life cycle assessment methodology and includes additional elements to model economic externalities and the temporal evolution of background parameters. The general equilibrium model GTAP was therefore used to simulate the economic consequences of policies in a dynamic framework representing the temporal evolution of macroeconomic and technological parameters. Environmental impacts, expressed via four indicators (human health, ecosystems, global warming and natural resources), are computed according to policy life cycle and its indirect economic consequences. In order to illustrate the approach, two 2005-2025 European Union (EU) energy policies were compared using M-LCA. The first policy, the bioenergy policy, aims to significantly increase energy generation from biomass and reduce EU energy demand for coal. The second policy, the baseline policy, is a business as usual policy where year 2000 energy policies are extended to 2025. Results show that, compared to the baseline policy, the bioenergy policy generates fewer impacts on three of the four environmental indicators (human health, global warming and natural resources) at the world and EU scales, though the results may differ significantly at a regional level. The results also highlight the key contribution of economic growth to the total environmental impacts computed for the 2005-2025 period. A comparison of the results with a more conventional consequential LCA approach illustrates the benefits of M-LCA when modeling the indirect environmental impacts of large-scale policies. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicates that the method is quite robust. However, its robustness must still be evaluated based on the sensitivity and uncertainty of additional parameters, including the evolution of economic growth.