Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

凉水河污染对土壤和地下水的影响

在凉水河下游取河床底泥及河床下部土样,分析其NH3-N、磷和有机物的变化,发现底泥对NH3-N和磷的去除发挥了很大作用,分别是下部土壤吸附量的10倍和1倍多;土中5种氯代烃均有检出,是河水长期渗漏积累的结果。凉水河流域内的野外试验结果表明,凉水河对地下水存在污染,污染组分主要是CODCr,NH3-N也有一定污染,其他无机污染组分如NO3-N,Cr6+,TP和Pb2+对地下水的影响较小,氯代烃对地下水也有一定影响。据推测,凉水河污染对地下水的影响范围大概在河两侧80 m范围内。     

塔里木油田水碳酸盐平衡系数与有机酸的意义

根据统计学规律,对塔里木盆地油田水进行了研究,阐明了该盆地油田水的碳酸盐平衡系数(简称为R_C)与有机酸的基本特征。从油田水的无机组分与有机组分的统计分析中发现了油田水的碳酸盐平衡系数与有机酸存在明显的负相关性,进一步论证了碳酸盐平衡系数和有机酸与油气聚集及油气性质的关系。碳酸盐平衡系数越低及低碳有机酸的含量越高,它们与油藏,尤其是与 轻质油或气藏的关系越密切。从两者的关系中初步了解到有机酸的溶蚀作用对油气藏中储层次生孔隙的形成应有较重要的影响。     

Expanding the analytical potential of channel locational probability maps using cellular statistics

The planimetric shifts in channel location of large alluvial rivers are a critical component in the creation of diverse structures and functions in riverine habitats. Engineered management schemes must also compensate for this type of channel change to protect resources and maintain navigation channels. The stability of the Lower Mississippi River channel was assessed through an analysis of historical records of channel position produced and archived by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Channel location was recorded for the years 1765, 1820, 1881, 1915, 1930, 1937, 1960 and 1970. Channel stability was measured by two introduced metrics on a cell‐by‐cell basis: (1) the standard deviation of Euclidean distance to a channel cell for the entire period of record, and (2) the rate of Euclidean distance change between years in the period of record. At a coarse spatial scale, channel instability increased in the downstream direction. The variability of channel stability also increased in the downstream direction. Analysis of this variability identified alternating areas of high and low stability occurring with greater frequency as distance downstream increased. These findings are validated by past studies of channel stability along the Lower Mississippi River. As a result, the proposed metrics provide a consistent, quantitative, efficient and cost‐effective means of identifying areas of channel instability at several spatial scales. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

珠江三角洲网河近20年河床演变特征分析

总结了20世纪80年代前珠江三角洲网河河床演变特征,并采用80年代和90年代末的河道地形图,通过对比珠江三角洲各主要河道的深泓线、平均河底高程以及河道容积、河床断面宽深比的变化,分析珠江三角洲80年代后的河床演变特征。对比分析结果表明珠江三角洲在不同时期呈现出不同的河床演变规律——20世纪80年代前以淤积为主,80年代至90年代末转变为以冲刷为主。     

塔里木盆地雅—轮地区断层封堵性研究

塔里木盆地雅—轮地区大部分圈闭及油气藏的形成与断裂作用密切相关,对断层封堵性的综合研究已成为该地区油气勘探的重要因素。应用地质定性分析、Allen剖面分析及断层涂抹量计算等方法,通过对研究区4个典型断层封堵油气藏的系统解剖研究,建立雅—轮地区断裂封堵性评价标准,对雅—轮地区断层的封堵性进行综合评价。雅—轮地区断层整体封堵效果良好,断层在圈闭形成和油气聚集过程中起着重要的控制作用,形成一系列沿断层带状分布的油气藏。亚南断裂的封堵效果东部要优于西部,下部要优于上部。轮台断裂在不同部位、不同深度均存在着不同的封堵性能,封堵非均质性明显,总体显示断裂东部地区(也根附近)的封堵性要好于西部雅南地区。      

利用黄河泥沙加固下游大堤

黄河是一条举世闻名的多泥沙河流，善淤、善决、善徒给沿河人民带来对过深重灾难，防洪问题一直是国家的心腹之患。泥沙问题是黄河防洪问题的症结所在。在总结固大堤经验的基础，进行挖河疏浚，淤筑“相对地下河”，已作为黄河治理的一项重大决策付诸实施。     

Dissolved organic carbon dynamics in the upper rhone: The influence of side-arms?

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics were investigated over a two year period in the Upper Rhǒne River to examine the role of side-arms in providing DOC to the main channel in relation to discharge fluctuations, especially floods. Concentrations of DOC are shown to remain low in space and in time (average 1.5 mg ^?1) and to be more related to global hydrological events (precipitation) than to any local flushing for backwaters during floods. The results do not support the general assumption that side-arms are the providers of DOC to the main channel.     

永定新河河口潮流动力及泥沙特征初步分析

依据永定新河河口１９９７年潮汐观测资料及河道１９９０～１９９７年潮汐观测资料，通过实测资料的整理分析，初步揭示了永定新河河口潮流动力及泥沙特征，为河道的治理规划提供了科学的依据。     

鄱阳湖控制浅说

该控制工程主要效益是改变鄱阳湖“夏水冬陆”的现状，成为祖国名符其实的第一大淡水湖，水面与避署胜地庐山和历史名城南昌、景德镇等相连，改善沿湖环境，发展航运，增加水产，开发利用丰富的水资源和旅游资源使之与杭州西湖、瑞士日内瓦湖等并列为世界名湖。