Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

多介质立体取样及在北黄海油气化探中的应用

由于不同环境条件下,不同化探测试指标受到不同的因素干扰,所以不同介质样品的应用条件存在一定的差异。针对不同介质样品特点,分别采集海底沉积物、底部海水和低空大气3种介质样品,并采用在海底沉积物柱状样不同深度部位取样的立体取样方法,通过多指标综合分析,对不同介质和深度样品的多项化探指标互相进行了验证和补充,可以抑制干扰因素的影响,为油气资源远景评价提供依据。运用该方法在北黄海盆地油气勘查中进行初步尝试,并据此划分了三级化探异常区,提出了有利的含油气远景区,均与已知油气区和区域地质分析的结果相符合,取得了很好的效果。      

凉水河污染对土壤和地下水的影响

在凉水河下游取河床底泥及河床下部土样,分析其NH3-N、磷和有机物的变化,发现底泥对NH3-N和磷的去除发挥了很大作用,分别是下部土壤吸附量的10倍和1倍多;土中5种氯代烃均有检出,是河水长期渗漏积累的结果。凉水河流域内的野外试验结果表明,凉水河对地下水存在污染,污染组分主要是CODCr,NH3-N也有一定污染,其他无机污染组分如NO3-N,Cr6+,TP和Pb2+对地下水的影响较小,氯代烃对地下水也有一定影响。据推测,凉水河污染对地下水的影响范围大概在河两侧80 m范围内。     

Expanding the analytical potential of channel locational probability maps using cellular statistics

The planimetric shifts in channel location of large alluvial rivers are a critical component in the creation of diverse structures and functions in riverine habitats. Engineered management schemes must also compensate for this type of channel change to protect resources and maintain navigation channels. The stability of the Lower Mississippi River channel was assessed through an analysis of historical records of channel position produced and archived by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Channel location was recorded for the years 1765, 1820, 1881, 1915, 1930, 1937, 1960 and 1970. Channel stability was measured by two introduced metrics on a cell‐by‐cell basis: (1) the standard deviation of Euclidean distance to a channel cell for the entire period of record, and (2) the rate of Euclidean distance change between years in the period of record. At a coarse spatial scale, channel instability increased in the downstream direction. The variability of channel stability also increased in the downstream direction. Analysis of this variability identified alternating areas of high and low stability occurring with greater frequency as distance downstream increased. These findings are validated by past studies of channel stability along the Lower Mississippi River. As a result, the proposed metrics provide a consistent, quantitative, efficient and cost‐effective means of identifying areas of channel instability at several spatial scales. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

珠江三角洲网河近20年河床演变特征分析

总结了20世纪80年代前珠江三角洲网河河床演变特征,并采用80年代和90年代末的河道地形图,通过对比珠江三角洲各主要河道的深泓线、平均河底高程以及河道容积、河床断面宽深比的变化,分析珠江三角洲80年代后的河床演变特征。对比分析结果表明珠江三角洲在不同时期呈现出不同的河床演变规律——20世纪80年代前以淤积为主,80年代至90年代末转变为以冲刷为主。     

黄海地质构造与油气资源

针对以往黄海油气勘探在找油思路、勘探深度、勘探领域、勘探部署和勘探技术等方面存在的问题 ,概述了南、北黄海地质构造、盆地演化、油气地质特征及成藏条件 ,并在此基础上 ,提出了对黄海油气资源远景的几点认识     

利用黄河泥沙加固下游大堤

黄河是一条举世闻名的多泥沙河流，善淤、善决、善徒给沿河人民带来对过深重灾难，防洪问题一直是国家的心腹之患。泥沙问题是黄河防洪问题的症结所在。在总结固大堤经验的基础，进行挖河疏浚，淤筑“相对地下河”，已作为黄河治理的一项重大决策付诸实施。     

Dissolved organic carbon dynamics in the upper rhone: The influence of side-arms?

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics were investigated over a two year period in the Upper Rhǒne River to examine the role of side-arms in providing DOC to the main channel in relation to discharge fluctuations, especially floods. Concentrations of DOC are shown to remain low in space and in time (average 1.5 mg ^?1) and to be more related to global hydrological events (precipitation) than to any local flushing for backwaters during floods. The results do not support the general assumption that side-arms are the providers of DOC to the main channel.     

永定新河河口潮流动力及泥沙特征初步分析

依据永定新河河口１９９７年潮汐观测资料及河道１９９０～１９９７年潮汐观测资料，通过实测资料的整理分析，初步揭示了永定新河河口潮流动力及泥沙特征，为河道的治理规划提供了科学的依据。     

鄱阳湖控制浅说

该控制工程主要效益是改变鄱阳湖“夏水冬陆”的现状，成为祖国名符其实的第一大淡水湖，水面与避署胜地庐山和历史名城南昌、景德镇等相连，改善沿湖环境，发展航运，增加水产，开发利用丰富的水资源和旅游资源使之与杭州西湖、瑞士日内瓦湖等并列为世界名湖。