Analysis of driver and passenger crash injury severity using partial proportional odds models

The question of whether crash injury severity should be modeled using an ordinal response model or a non-ordered (multinomial) response model is persistent in traffic safety engineering. This paper proposes the use of the partial proportional odds (PPO) model as a statistical modeling technique that both bridges the gap between ordered and non-ordered response modeling, and avoids violating the key assumptions in the behavior of crash severity inherent in these two alternatives. The partial proportional odds model is a type of logistic regression that allows certain individual predictor variables to ignore the proportional odds assumption which normally forces predictor variables to affect each level of the response variable with the same magnitude, while other predictor variables retain this proportional odds assumption. This research looks at the effectiveness of this PPO technique in predicting vehicular crash severities on Connecticut state roads using data from 1995 to 2009. The PPO model is compared to ordinal and multinomial response models on the basis of adequacy of model fit, significance of covariates, and out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results of this study show that the PPO model has adequate fit and performs best overall in terms of covariate significance and holdout prediction accuracy. Combined with the ability to accurately represent the theoretical process of crash injury severity prediction, this makes the PPO technique a favorable approach for crash injury severity modeling by adequately modeling and predicting the ordinal nature of the crash severity process and addressing the non-proportional contributions of some covariates.     

烟草水分胁迫研究进展

综述了烟草水分胁迫与烟株生长发育、烟株生理变化以及产、质量的关系,并展望了今后的研究方向.     

甜菜苗期干旱胁迫诱导差异表达cDNA的研究

为挖掘甜菜自身抗逆资源,明确甜菜抗逆分子机理,创新甜菜种质,采用模拟干旱条件方法对甜菜幼苗进行处理,同时设对照。提取甜菜叶片总RNA,经反转录成eDNA,筛选合适的锚定引物和随机引物,琼脂糖凝胶电泳、丙烯酰胺凝胶电泳分析mRNA的差异表达。结果表明：干旱条件下,甜菜部分eDNA出现差异表达情况,共有差异片段10条,其中表现为上调的4条,表现为下调的2条,新增条带4条。回收差异片段,Northern杂交验证,得到阳性差异基因片段4条。本研究结果有助于阐明甜菜抗逆调控的分子机理,为进一步培育抗旱新品种提供理论基础。     

A model of seam pucker and its applications Part I: theoretical

Abstract

This article considers a simple model of the lock stitch (301) seam, and uses it to derive a measure of the severity of puckering in the seam. The numerical value of the measure depends on the bending properties of the fabrics and thread in the seam, together with the tensions in the threads. How the latter may be estimated is discussed.     

依安县旱涝灾害初步分析

统计依安县的旱涝灾害资料 ,确定了旱涝灾害的控制指标     

A comprehensive analysis of factors influencing the injury severity of large-truck crashes

Given the importance of trucking to the economic well being of a country and the safety concerns posed by the trucks, a study of large-truck crashes is critical. This paper contributes by undertaking an extensive analysis of the empirical factors affecting injury severity of large-truck crashes. Data from a recent, nationally representative sample of large-truck crashes are examined to determine the factors affecting the overall injury severity of these crashes. The explanatory factors include the characteristics of the crash, vehicle(s), and the driver(s). The injury severity was modeled using two measures. Several similarities and some differences were observed across the two models which underscore the need for improved accuracy in the assessment of injury severity of crashes. The estimated models capture the marginal effects of a variety of explanatory factors simultaneously. In particular, the models indicate the impacts of several driver behavior variables on the severity of the crashes, after controlling for a variety of other factors. For example, driver distraction (truck drivers), alcohol use (car drivers), and emotional factors (car drivers) are found to be associated with higher severity crashes. A further interesting finding is the strong statistical significance of several dummy variables that indicate missing data – these reflect how the nature of the crash itself could affect the completeness of the data. Future efforts should seek to collect such data more comprehensively so that the true effects of these aspects on the crash severity can be determined.     

光伏提水技术在雷州半岛抗旱中应用的可行性探讨

干旱缺水问题一直制约着雷州半岛农业和社会经济的发展,对此省、市、县各级政府高度重视,2011年《全国抗旱规划》将徐闻县和雷州市列为全国严重受旱县,因此,如何采取有效的抗旱措施、探索适宜的抗旱途径是水利工作者的责任和使命。该文通过分析雷州半岛干旱原因、近年来采取的抗旱措施及存在的问题,提出了光伏提水技术在雷州半岛应用的设想,并以徐闻县为例分析了光伏提水系统应用的技术和经济可行性及应用于灌溉的可靠性,对于解决雷州半岛农业干旱问题具有广阔的发展前景。