基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

30.4 nm光电成像系统分辨率的初步实验研究

本文基于微通道板MCP(Microchannel Plate)探测器件设计一套成像系统，用于对波长为30．4nm的极紫外EUV(Extreme Ultraviolet)光进行成像．结果获得了一宽度为3mm的狭缝的像，实验测得490μm的成像系统的空间分辨率，并分析了影响系统分辨率的各种因素及为提高系统分辨率所应采取的措施．     

火工品压药机装配误差的研究

针对军用雷管生产线中压药机结构,分别用极值法和概率法对压药机冲子和雷管的配合精度,进行了装配尺寸链的描述和计算,并对所得的结果进行了比较。     

THE STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EXTREME VALUES OF WAVE-CURRENT FORCES ACTING ON SLENDER CIRCULAR CYLINDER IN IRREGULAR WAVES

Based on model test,the statistical distribution of extreme values of wave-current in-line forces acting on vertical circular cylinder is analyzed in this paper.It is shownthat the results calculated by the simplified method,proposed by authors,agree well with the testdata;Weibull distribution is also adoptable in the region of high KC number, and the shapeparameter a and scale parameter β are related well with KC number respectively.     

吉林省特大干旱灾害对粮食的影响及其对策

本文通过分析我省历史发生的特大干旱灾害事件，论述了不同时期特大干旱对粮食产量的严重影响。提出了21世纪特大干旱的研究与对策。     

基于随机分析和概率预测的固定式海洋平台结构风险评估研究

对极端海况进行了环境荷载的联合概率分析。引入了整体不确定性和敏感性分析理论,利用非正态过程、具有不同相关性的多变量随机模拟技术,求解结构的失效概率。提出结构失效分析的新方法,并利用DNV提供的历史数据,对结构失效的后果做了适当分析。以埕北12-C井组平台为实例,对平台甲板高程(Air Gap)失效分析进行了实例计算。结果表明,使用多维联合极值分布理论及相应的求解方法,是离岸工程结构物风险评估的重要手段。     

金属清净剂的性能研究

为了改进金属清净剂的抗氧性和极压抗磨性能，用一种含硫磷的羧酸衍生物部分中和清净剂中过碱性组分，得到两种改进的金属清净剂，并用四球机和热重分析仪评价其极压抗磨和抗氧化性能。结果表明功能化处理提高了金属清净剂抗氧化和极压性能，但未对分散和抗磨性能产生显著影响。     

Use of the Extreme Groups Approach: A Critical Reexamination and New Recommendations.

Analysis of continuous variables sometimes proceeds by selecting individuals on the basis of extreme scores of a sample distribution and submitting only those extreme scores to further analysis. This sampling method is known as the extreme groups approach (EGA). EGA is often used to achieve greater statistical power in subsequent hypothesis tests. However, there are several largely unrecognized costs associated with EGA that must be considered. The authors illustrate the effects EGA can have on power, standardized effect size, reliability, model specification, and the interpretability of results. Finally, the authors discuss alternative procedures, as well as possible legitimate uses of EGA. The authors urge researchers, editors, reviewers, and consumers to carefully assess the extent to which EGA is an appropriate tool in their own research and in that of others. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Extremes of random fields over arbitrary domains with application to concrete rupture stresses

To find the exact probability distribution of the global maximum or minimum of a random field within a bounded domain is a pending problem even for Gaussian fields. Except for very special examples of fields, recourse must be taken to approximate reasoning or asymptotic considerations to be judged with respect to accuracy by simulations. In this paper, the problem is addressed through a functional equation that leads to the definition of a class of distribution functions that depend solely on process or field characteristics and domain quantities that can be calculated explicitly. This distribution function class is studied for Gaussian processes in earlier works by the author and it has been obtained explicitly for Gaussian fields on rectangular domains in the plane. Simulation studies show that rather good predictions are obtained for sufficiently smooth wide band Gaussian processes and fields. In this paper, the distribution function is obtained in general for Gaussian fields over arbitrary bounded domains with piecewise continuous and differentiable boundaries, and as in earlier works the distribution function is tested against empirical distribution functions obtained by simulation of sample functions of a smooth approximately Gaussian field, herein called a broken line Hino field. For completeness this particular field type is defined in appendix a and appendix b. The paper concludes with a statistical application on data for plain concrete tensile strength.     

安徽省旱涝急转规律的认识与研究

旱涝急转是指某一地区或某一流域发生较长时间干旱时，突遇集中强降雨，引发山洪暴发、河水陡涨．客水入侵、内水难以及时外排的一种自然现象。旱涝急转极易造成人员伤亡、水库垮坝等重大经济损失。在防汛抗旱中，安徽省要充分认识旱涝急转的危害性，加强应急管理，具体包括思想上保持高度的警觉，加快防汛抗旱工程体系和预测预警体系建设，有效应对旱涝急转。