基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

Cold and wet: Diatoms dominate the phytoplankton community during a year of anomalous weather in a Great Lakes estuary

As sentinels of climate change and other anthropogenic forces, freshwater lakes are experiencing ecosystem disruptions at every level of the food web, beginning with the phytoplankton, a highly responsive group of organisms. Most studies regarding the effects of climate change on phytoplankton focus on a potential scenario in which temperatures continuously increase and droughts intersperse heavy precipitation events. Like much of the conterminous United States in 2019, the Muskegon River watershed (Michigan, USA) experienced record-breaking rainfall accompanied by unusually cool temperatures, affording an opportunity to explore how an alternate potential climate scenario may affect phytoplankton. We conducted biweekly sampling of environmental variables and phytoplankton in Muskegon Lake, a Great Lakes Area of Concern that connects to Lake Michigan. We compared environmental variables in 2019 to the previous eight years using long-term data from the Muskegon Lake Observatory buoy, and annual monitoring excursions provided historical phytoplankton data. Under cold and wet conditions, diatoms were the single dominant division throughout the entire growth season – an unprecedented scenario in Muskegon Lake. In 10 of the 13 biweekly sampling days in 2019, diatoms comprised over 75% of the phytoplankton community in the lake by count, indicating that the spring diatom bloom persisted through the fall. Additionally, phytoplankton seasonal succession and abundance patterns typically seen in this lake were absent. In a world experiencing reduced predictability, increased variability, and regional climate anomalies, studying periods of extreme weather events may offer insight into how natural systems will be affected and respond under future climate scenarios.     

Does life satisfaction moderate the effects of stressful life events on psychopathological behavior during adolescence?

Psychologists within a positive psychology framework have proposed the existence of a set of psychological strengths that buffer against the development of psychopathology. To date, most research efforts in positive psychology have focused on adults. This longitudinal study tested the prediction that adolescents' judgments of life satisfaction moderate the influence of stressful life events on the subsequent development of psychopathological behavior. Using a sample of 816 middle and high school students, the study demonstrated support for the moderational model for externalizing behavior outcomes, but not internalizing behavior problems. Specifically, adolescents with positive life satisfaction (vs. those who were dissatisfied with their lives) were less likely to develop later externalizing behaviors in the face of stressful life events. The study also revealed that adolescent life satisfaction reports show moderate stability across a one-year time frame and independently predict subsequent externalizing behavior even while controlling for prior levels of externalizing behavior... (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

交互控制程序编程方法

交互控制是计算机程序的重要功能 ,也是实现人—机对话的基本途径。VisualBasic编程语言以其易学习掌握、开发灵活的特点而成为目前流行的程序开发工具 ,本文以VisualBasic语言为例介绍了交互控制程序编程方法 ,并对具体的每一种方法编写了相应的示例。     

Life is pleasant--and memory helps to keep it that way!

People's recollections of the past are often positively biased. This bias has 2 causes. The 1st cause lies in people's perceptions of events. The authors review the results of several studies and present several new comparative analyses of these studies, all of which indicate that people perceive events in their lives to more often be pleasant than unpleasant. A 2nd cause is the fading affect bias: The affect associated with unpleasant events fades faster than the affect associated with pleasant events. The authors review the results of several studies documenting this bias and present evidence indicating that dysphoria (mild depression) disrupts such bias. Taken together, this evidence suggests that autobiographical memory represents an important exception to the theoretical claim that bad is stronger than good. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

30.4 nm光电成像系统分辨率的初步实验研究

本文基于微通道板MCP(Microchannel Plate)探测器件设计一套成像系统，用于对波长为30．4nm的极紫外EUV(Extreme Ultraviolet)光进行成像．结果获得了一宽度为3mm的狭缝的像，实验测得490μm的成像系统的空间分辨率，并分析了影响系统分辨率的各种因素及为提高系统分辨率所应采取的措施．     

火工品压药机装配误差的研究

针对军用雷管生产线中压药机结构,分别用极值法和概率法对压药机冲子和雷管的配合精度,进行了装配尺寸链的描述和计算,并对所得的结果进行了比较。     

THE STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EXTREME VALUES OF WAVE-CURRENT FORCES ACTING ON SLENDER CIRCULAR CYLINDER IN IRREGULAR WAVES

Based on model test,the statistical distribution of extreme values of wave-current in-line forces acting on vertical circular cylinder is analyzed in this paper.It is shownthat the results calculated by the simplified method,proposed by authors,agree well with the testdata;Weibull distribution is also adoptable in the region of high KC number, and the shapeparameter a and scale parameter β are related well with KC number respectively.     

水库突发事件应急预案研究现状与关键技术初探

水库突发事件应急预案是大坝风险管理中非常重要的一个环节,是降低水库大坝风险的非工程措施.本文总结了国内水库突发事件应急预案的研究现状,并结合我国实际国情,初步提出了开展应急预案的关键技术,供大坝安全管理及科研人员参考.     

基于随机分析和概率预测的固定式海洋平台结构风险评估研究

对极端海况进行了环境荷载的联合概率分析。引入了整体不确定性和敏感性分析理论,利用非正态过程、具有不同相关性的多变量随机模拟技术,求解结构的失效概率。提出结构失效分析的新方法,并利用DNV提供的历史数据,对结构失效的后果做了适当分析。以埕北12-C井组平台为实例,对平台甲板高程(Air Gap)失效分析进行了实例计算。结果表明,使用多维联合极值分布理论及相应的求解方法,是离岸工程结构物风险评估的重要手段。