Conditionals and conditional probability.

The authors report 3 experiments in which participants were invited to judge the probability of statements of the form if p then q given frequency information about the cases pq, p?q, ?pq, and ?p?q (where ? = not). Three hypotheses were compared: (a) that people equate the probability with that of the material conditional, 1 - P(p?q); (b) that people assign the conditional probability, P(q/p); and (c) that people assign the conjunctive probability P(pq). The experimental evidence allowed rejection of the 1st hypothesis but provided some support for the 2nd and 3rd hypotheses. Individual difference analyses showed that half of the participants used conditional probability and that most of the remaining participants used conjunctive probability as the basis of their judgments. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Semiempirical,squeeze flow,and intermolecular diffusion model. II. Model verification using laser microwelding

This article reviews the application of a coupled squeeze flow and intermolecular diffusion model, which was used to predict the quality and size of microwelds in plastics. Weld widths predictions were compared with previously presented experimental results using moving heat source models and temperature fields. The motivation for this work was to develop and verify a model based on fundamental principles that could accurately predict weld size and strength for conventional plastic welding techniques as well as novel techniques such as laser microwelding. It is envisioned that the resulting model could be used to predict proper welding parameters, including laser power and travel speed, to produce welds of varying size. Although insight into weld quality can be derived from this model, it was not the goal of this work to accurately predict weld strength for laser microwelding because of the difficulty in measuring weld strength on the micron scale. However, as reported in Part 1, weld strength for impulse welds were accurately predicted. In this model it was found that variable temperature histories, rather than a single value of maximum weld temperature, allows more accurate modeling of the welding process. In this work (Part 2), microwelds as small as 11 μm in width were produced with transmission infrared welding. In addition, welds over 150‐μm wide were also generated and the model was able to predict the range of weld widths that were found experimentally. It was found that the predictions were in very good agreement with the experimental results. There was some deviation between the experimental data and the model at the extreme parameters and it is believed that this was due to the temperature‐dependent material properties as well as optical aberrations. POLYM. ENG. SCI., 2008. © 2008 Society of Plastics Engineers     

Comment on “Nonlinear optimal tracking control with application to super-tankers for autopilot design” by T. Çimen and S.P. Banks

A recent paper by Çimen and Banks [2004. Nonlinear optimal tracking control with application to super-tankers for autopilot design. Automatica, 40(11), 1845–1863] on optimal control system design for oil tanker propulsion and heading highlighted the importance of accurately representing the dynamics of such a vessel. Results presented in that paper are based on a simulation model that provides unrealistic results for an oil tanker of the size considered. Therefore, the results obtained from the simulated ship control problem are not representative of the physical system being considered. In this communication an alternative, more realistic model is presented and discussed with reference to the original publications that define the ship model dynamics.     

Engaging the aging workforce: The relationship between perceived age similarity, satisfaction with coworkers, and employee engagement.

Business publications and the popular press have stressed the importance of creating conditions for meaningful employee expression in work roles, also known as engagement. Few empirical studies, however, have examined how individual or situational factors relate to engagement. Consequently, this study examines the interplay between employee age, perceived coworker age composition, and satisfaction with older (older than 55) and younger (younger than 40) coworkers on engagement using a sample of 901 individuals employed in the United Kingdom. Results indicated that satisfaction with one's coworkers related significantly to engagement. Moreover, perceived age similarity was associated with higher levels of engagement among older workers when they were highly satisfied with their coworkers over 55 and lower levels of engagement when they were not. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Modeling and sensitivity analysis of fire emissions in southern Africa during SAFARI 2000

This paper uses three recently generated southern African satellite burned area products for the month of September 2000 in a sensitivity study of regional biomass burning emissions for a number of trace gases and particulates. Differences in the extent and location of areas burned among products generated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Systeme Pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT-VEGETATION), and Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR-2) data are significant and result in different emissions estimates for woodland and grassland land cover types. Due to the different emission profiles in woodlands and grasslands, favoring relatively more products of incomplete combustion in woodlands compared with products of complete combustion in grasslands in the late dry season, these changes are not proportional to the differences in the burned area amounts. The importance of accurate burned area information not just in terms of the total area but also in terms of its spatial distribution becomes apparent from our modeling results. This paper highlights the urgent need for satellite data producers to provide accuracy assessments associated with satellite-derived products. Preferably, these accuracy data will be spatially explicit, or defined in a way that can be applied in a spatially explicit modeling context, to enable emissions uncertainties to be defined with respect to different landscape units in support of greenhouse gas emissions reporting.     

Adaptive switching supervisory control of nonlinear systems with no prior knowledge of noise bounds

The problem of controlling nonlinear noisy systems affected by parametric uncertainties is approached via the introduction of a supervisor which, whenever needed, switches on, in feedback to the plant, a controller selected from a finite set of predesigned controllers. A Lyapunov-based falsification criterion allows one to ensure robust stability in the presence of uncertain constant parameters and exogenous bounded disturbances. Simulations are discussed in order to illustrate the merits of the proposed algorithms.     

Choice With Initial and Terminal Link Reinforcement: An Alternative Self-Control Paradigm.

Self-control is demonstrated when a less desirable immediate outcome is chosen to ensure a substantially better future. In a novel animal analogue of this situation, primary reinforcement was delivered in both the initial and terminal links of a concurrent chain schedule. Rats made initial link choices between equal amounts of ethanol-free or ethanol-containing milk. Choosing the ethanol-free reinforcer resulted in delivery of the larger terminal link reinforcer and was thus analogous to self-control. Self-control decreased as the delay between initial and terminal links increased. The results have implications for human choice situations where decisions are made between two immediately available reinforcement alternatives each associated with a different delayed outcome. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Predicting Acute Renal Failure after Cardiac Surgery: Validation and Re‐definition of a Risk‐Stratification Algorithm

Background:  Acute renal failure (ARF) after cardiac surgery is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, irrespective of the need for dialysis. Previous studies have attempted to identify predictors of ARF and develop risk stratification algorithms. This study aims to validate the algorithm in an independent cohort of patients that includes a significant proportion of female and black patients and compares two different definitions of renal outcome.
Methods:  A large single center cardiac surgery database was examined (n, 24,660; 1993–2000) which included 29.9% females and 3.7% black patients. Post‐operative ARF was defined as: a) ARF requiring dialysis, b) > 50% reduction in creatinine clearance relative to baseline or requiring dialysis. Clinical variables related to baseline renal function and cardiovascular disease were used in recursive partitioning analysis for both outcome definitions. Chi‐square goodness of fit analysis was performed to validate the algorithm.
Results:  The frequency of post‐operative ARF requiring dialysis ranged between 0.5 and 15.5% based on the risk categories with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.78. Using the more inclusive definition of ARF, the frequency was significantly higher ranging from 2.6 to 25%(P < 0.001) with an area under ROC curve of 0.65.
Conclusions:  The renal risk stratification algorithm is valid in predicting post‐operative ARF in an independent cohort of patients, well represented by differences in gender and race. Since the need for dialysis remains subjective, a more objective and inclusive definition of ARF may help in identifying a larger number of patients 'at‐risk'.