Efficient Monte Carlo computation of Fisher information matrix using prior information

The Fisher information matrix (FIM) is a critical quantity in several aspects of mathematical modeling, including input selection and confidence region calculation. Analytical determination of the FIM in a general setting, especially in nonlinear models, may be difficult or almost impossible due to intractable modeling requirements or/and intractable high-dimensional integration.To circumvent these difficulties, a Monte Carlo simulation based technique, known as resampling algorithm, is usually recommended, in which values of the log-likelihood function or its exact stochastic gradient computed based on a set of pseudo-data vectors are used. The current work proposes an extension of this resampling algorithm in order to enhance the statistical qualities of the estimator of the FIM. This modified resampling algorithm is useful in those cases when some elements of the FIM are analytically known from prior information and the rest of the elements are unknown. The estimator of the FIM resulting from the proposed algorithm simultaneously preserves the analytically known elements and reduces variances of the estimators of the unknown elements. This is achieved by capitalizing on the information contained in the known elements.     

Drought contingency planning

Simulation gaming has the potential to enhance the effectiveness of drought management planning. The Indianapolis water supply system is used to illustrate how. First, the probability of experiencing a severe drought in Indianapolis is examined using historical streamflow data. The effects of such a drought on the municipal water supply system are then analysed using a recently developed simulation model of the Indianapolis water system. Consideration is given to the water resource decision-making problems that might arise under drought conditions, along with a discussion of the benefits of employing simulation gaming in the analysis of these problems. A basic outline for the design of a drought management simulation exercise is presented.     

Detecting 6 MV X-rays using an organic photovoltaic device

An organic photovoltaic (OPV) device has been used in conjunction with a flexible inorganic phosphor to produce a radiation tolerant, efficient and linear detector for 6 MV X-rays. The OPVs were based on a blend of poly(3-hexylthiophene-2,5-diyl) (P3HT) and phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM). We show that the devices have a sensitivity an order of magnitude higher than a commercial silicon detector used as a reference. Exposure to 360 Grays of radiation resulted in a small (2%) degradation in performance demonstrating that these detectors have the potential to be used as flexible, real-time, in vivo dosimeters for oncology treatments.     

Obituary: Jacquelin R. Goldman (1934–2008).

Presents an obituary for Jacquelin R. Goldman, professor emeritus in the Department of Clinical and Health Psychology and the Department of Psychology at the University of Florida, died November 3, 2008, at the age of 74 in Gainesville, Florida. She spent her entire career of 35-plus years at the University of Florida. She mentored 24 doctoral students, authored and edited three psychology textbooks, and published more than 40 professional articles and book chapters. She was an active contributor to university governance and was involved in teaching, research, clinical supervision, and the provision of clinical services to children. She was also an active contributor to the profession, having served as president of the Florida State Board of Examiners of Psychology (1975–1977), chair of the Southeastern Regional Board of the American Board of Professional Psychology (1983–1993), and president of the American Board of Professional Psychology (1990–1991), among other professional involvements. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A practical clinical trial of coordinated care management to treat substance use disorders among public assistance beneficiaries.

This study tested whether coordinated care management (CCM), a continuity of care intervention for substance use disorders (SUD), improved rates of abstinence when compared with usual welfare management for substance-using single adults and adults with dependent children applying for public assistance. The study was designed as a practical clinical trial and was implemented in partnership with a large city welfare agency. Participants were 421 welfare applicants identified via SUD screening and assigned via an unbiased computerized allocation program to a site that provided either CCM (n = 232) or usual care (UC; n = 189). Outcomes were assessed for 1 year postbaseline with self-reports and biological measures of substance use. As hypothesized, for participants not enrolled in methadone maintenance programs (n = 313), CCM clients received significantly more services than did UC clients. Nonmethadone CCM also showed significantly higher abstinence rates (odds ratio = 1.75; 95% confidence interval = 1.12, 2.76; d = 0.31) that emerged early in treatment and were sustained throughout follow-up. In contrast, no treatment services or outcome effects were found for methadone maintenance clients (n = 108). Findings suggest that CCM is promising as a wraparound to SUD treatment for welfare recipients. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Durability and water absorption properties of surface treated concretes

Durability of concrete can be improved by applying surface treatments. Pore-lining treatments prevent or delay the ingress of water-borne salts while allowing vapour transfer across the concrete surface. The most common pore-liners are silanes and siloxanes; both reported to give good results. One area of concern, however, is variability in effectiveness of the treatment. This variability may be due to inconsistent coverage or extreme drying conditions. With care these can be controlled but another source of variability which is difficult to control is the moisture profile within the concrete at the time of application of the treatment. This paper describes a test programme to assess the sensitivity of three different surface treatments to moisture gradient in the concrete at the time of application of treatment. The test programme included durability parameters such as chloride ingress, corrosion due to chloride ingress, freeze–thaw salt scaling resistance. Water absorption (sorptivity) of treated and untreated concretes was also measured with a non-distructive test technique called Autoclam with the aim of determining if the Autoclam sorptivity test can be used to assess the effectiveness of surface treatments. Using these results it is possible to avoid, or allow for, moisture conditions which would adversely affect the success of a pore-liner. However there are advantages in specifying an expected performance of the surface treatment rather than specifying the conditions in which it must be placed. By this method a treatment would have to achieve a specified value of sorptivity or a specified reduction in sorptivity. Failure to do so would be an objective basis on which to make a decision of whether or not to reject the treatment. The Autoclam is a device capable of measuring sorptivity values down to the range typical of surface treated concrete. The paper assesses if the device can be used to discriminate between acceptable treatment and unsatisfactory treatments.     

Performance of a combined passive/active solar house

The paper describes a residence designed and built to demonstrate that active and passive solar homes could be economically by conventional home builders. The systems were designed for simplicity and cost effectiveness. The home was built in 56 days with conventional building materials and built by labourers with no particular training in energy efficient building techniques. After one season of operation the energy use data shows impressive performance. The auxiliary fuel requirement for the heating season was only 0.035 MJ/m²°C-day (1.72 Btu/ft²°F-day).

Economically the home is equally impressive. An independent appraiser of the home valued the construction at US $67 500. In reality the home cost US $59 000 including contractor's overhead and profit. Subtracting from this the amount US $4000 for the Federal Solar Tax Credit results in an owner cost of US $55 000.

The project demonstrated that given proper consideration for design, construction techniques, and solar systems integration, a solar structure need not cost more than conventional construction.