Prestidigitation, statistical magic, and Supreme Court numerology in juvenile death penalty cases.

In the Supreme Court's Eighth Amendment jurisprudence, "community sentiment" comes to the fore in judging whether a punishment is cruel and unusual, but the Court is sharply divided over whether "objective indicia" should be solely determinative, or whether the moral sentiments of the justices (i.e., a proportionality analysis) should be permitted. Whereas Justices are committed to doing social science to gauge community sentiment, they are also divided over what indicia count. This article analyzes the Court's social science analyses in two juvenile death penalty cases and finds them riddled with error, statistical magic, and numerology: The empirical question is transmuted into a categorical one, social science is made to disappear, and the philosopher-king, who was supposed to be on the sidelines, now commands the field. A more defensible analysis is put forth, and a different picture of "community sentiment" emerges. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Effects of Fimbria-Fornix, Hippocampus, and Amygdala Lesions on Discrimination Between Proximal Locations.

The conditioned cue preference (CCP) task was used to study the information required to discriminate between spatial locations defined by adjacent arms of an 8-arm radial maze. Normal rats learned the discrimination after 3 unreinforced preexposure (PE) sessions and 4 food paired-unpaired training trials. Fimbria-fornix lesions made before, but not after, PE, and hippocampus lesions made at either time, blocked the discrimination, suggesting that the 2 structures processed different information. Lateral amygdala lesions made before PE facilitated the discrimination. This amygdala-mediated interference with the discrimination was the result of a conditioned approach response that did not discriminate between the 2 arm locations. A hippocampus/fimbria-fornix system and an amygdala system process different information about the same learning situation simultaneously and in parallel. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Reliability and stability of executive functioning in older adults.

A number of methodological questions have been raised about the reliability and validity of measuring executive functioning (EF) across multiple time points. In this study, correlational and latent-variable analyses were used to examine test-retest reliability of 5 common measures of EF and the stability of a latent EF construct. One hundred eighteen nondemented older adults were tested twice over a 4- to 8-week period. Findings demonstrated modest reliability of individual EF measures but very high stability of a latent EF construct. Relative contributions of each measure to the latent EF factor did not change across measurement trials. In addition, age-related effects on EF were similar at the 2 time points and were within the expected range. Implications for future studies of EF are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

On the effectiveness of early life cycle defect prediction with Bayesian Nets

Standard practice in building models in software engineering normally involves three steps: collecting domain knowledge (previous results, expert knowledge); building a skeleton of the model based on step 1 including as yet unknown parameters; estimating the model parameters using historical data. Our experience shows that it is extremely difficult to obtain reliable data of the required granularity, or of the required volume with which we could later generalize our conclusions. Therefore, in searching for a method for building a model we cannot consider methods requiring large volumes of data. This paper discusses an experiment to develop a causal model (Bayesian net) for predicting the number of residual defects that are likely to be found during independent testing or operational usage. The approach supports (1) and (2), does not require (3), yet still makes accurate defect predictions (an R ² of 0.93 between predicted and actual defects). Since our method does not require detailed domain knowledge it can be applied very early in the process life cycle. The model incorporates a set of quantitative and qualitative factors describing a project and its development process, which are inputs to the model. The model variables, as well as the relationships between them, were identified as part of a major collaborative project. A dataset, elicited from 31 completed software projects in the consumer electronics industry, was gathered using a questionnaire distributed to managers of recent projects. We used this dataset to validate the model by analyzing several popular evaluation measures (R ², measures based on the relative error and Pred). The validation results also confirm the need for using the qualitative factors in the model. The dataset may be of interest to other researchers evaluating models with similar aims. Based on some typical scenarios we demonstrate how the model can be used for better decision support in operational environments. We also performed sensitivity analysis in which we identified the most influential variables on the number of residual defects. This showed that the project size, scale of distributed communication and the project complexity cause the most of variation in number of defects in our model. We make both the dataset and causal model available for research use.     

Metrics and mappings: A framework for understanding real-world quantitative estimation.

Estimation is influenced by a variety of processes: application of heuristics, domain-specific reasoning, and intuitive statistical induction among them. In this article, the authors propose the metrics and mapping framework to account for how these processes are integrated to generate estimates. This framework identifies 2 types of information as critical: knowledge of distributional properties (metric knowledge) and knowledge of relative status of individual entities within the distribution (mapping knowledge). Heuristics and domain-specific knowledge are both viewed as cues that contribute to mapping knowledge; intuitive statistical induction is viewed as providing cues to metric properties. Results of 4 experiments illustrate the framework's usefulness for integrating these types of information and for predicting when people emphasize heuristics and when they emphasize domain-specific knowledge. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Benefits of collecting local data on breast cancer and mammography practices in northwestern Pennsylvania

OBJECTIVES: A randomized trial was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a work-site health promotion program in reducing obesity and the prevalence of cigarette smoking. METHODS: Thirty-two work sites were randomized to treatment or no treatment for 2 years. Treatment consisted of health education classes combined with a payroll-based incentive system. Evaluation was based on cohort and cross-sectional surveys. RESULTS: Of 10,000 total employees in treatment work sites, 2041 and 270 participated in weight control and smoking cessation programs, respectively. Weight losses averaged 4.8 lbs, and 43% of smoking participants quit. Net 2-year reductions in smoking prevalence in treatment vs control work sites were 4.0% and 2.1% in cross-sectional and cohort surveys, respectively. No treatment effect was found for weight. Treatment effects for smoking prevalence and weight were both positively correlated with participation rates in the intervention programs (r = .45 for smoking and r = .55 for weight). CONCLUSIONS: This work-site health promotion program was effective in reducing smoking prevalence at a cost that is believed to make the investment worthwhile.     

The effect of growth hormone replacement on cortisol metabolism and glucocorticoid sensitivity in hypopituitary adults

OBJECTIVE: Growth hormone (GH) replacement therapy in hypopituitary adults is associated with sodium and water retention. The underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood and a possible contribution of altered cortisol metabolism or action has not been evaluated. We have investigated the effect of GH replacement therapy on cortisol metabolism, cortisol binding globulin and in-vitro glucocorticoid sensitivity in a group of adult hypopituitary patients. DESIGN AND PATIENTS: We studied 19 adult hypopituitary patients (18 adult onset, M:F, 6:13), who were receiving conventional hydrocortisone (16 patients), thyroxine (14 patients), triiodothyronine (1 patient), sex steroid (9 patients), human chorionic gonadotrophin (1 patient) or desmopressin (6 patients) replacement during a 6-month, double blind controlled trial of GH therapy (active:placebo, 8:11) followed by a 6-month open phase of GH (mean dose: 0.2 IU/kg/week, range 0.051-0.27) and after a 6-week washout phase following discontinuation of GH therapy. MEASUREMENTS: Twenty-four-hour urine free cortisol, cortisol metabolites (CoM), ratio 11-hydroxy/11-oxo CoM (F/E) and ratio 5 alpha/beta tetrahydrocortisol were measured at 6 months, 12 months and after the 6 week washout phase. Serum cortisol binding globulin was measured basally, at 6 months, 12 months and after washout. Glucocorticoid sensitivity was determined in lymphocyte preparations from 8 patients, during GH therapy and after washout, using an in-vitro technique dependent on dexamethasone suppression of phytohaemagglutinin-stimulated thymidine incorporation into DNA. Plasma renin activity and aldosterone were measured after 6-12 months GH therapy and after washout. RESULTS: After 6 months of GH, in patients on hydrocortisone (n = 9), there were significant decreases in CoM (mean decrement 21%, P < 0.01), F/E (mean decreased from 1.27 to 1.0, P = 0.04; reference range 0.33-1.29) and 5 alpha/5 beta tetrahydrocortisol (mean decreased from 0.67 to 0.48, P = 0.01) and a subsequent increase after washout. Patients not on hydrocortisone (n = 2) demonstrated a normal basal F/E falling by 25% on GH therapy but no change in CoM. During 12 months of GH therapy, patients on hydrocortisone (n = 7) demonstrated a further trend to decrement in CoM (P = 0.09) which reversed after washout (P = 0.04). Urine free cortisol tended to fall during GH therapy and increased significantly following washout after 12 months treatment (P < 0.02). Serum cortisol binding globulin decreased by 20% (P < 0.05) during 12 months GH treatment but remained within the reference range. In-vitro studies demonstrated a trend to reduced glucocorticoid sensitivity on GH therapy; the maximum inhibition of phytohaemagglutinin by dexamethasone tended to be less on GH therapy (P = 0.052) and was also lower than in 29 normal volunteers (P < 0.05). There were no significant changes in plasma renin but there was a small increment in aldosterone in recumbent patients (P = 0.04) during the open phase of GH therapy in the placebo arm. CONCLUSIONS: GH therapy in hypopituitary adults is associated with an apparent reduction in availability of administered hydrocortisone as measured by urine cortisol metabolites and urine free cortisol. This effect is unlikely to be clinically significant except possibly in ACTH deficient subjects on suboptimal hydrocortisone replacement. The changes in F/E suggest that GH may directly or indirectly modulate the activity of 11 beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase. The apparent decrease in glucocorticoid sensitivity during GH therapy, demonstrated in vitro, merits further investigation.     

Analysis of first ply failure in composite laminates

The mechanics of transverse cracking in an elastic fibrous composite ply is explored for the case of low crack density. Cracks are assumed to initiate from a nucleus created by localized fiber debonding and matrix cracking. It is found that cracks may propagate in two directions on planes which are parallel to the fiber axis and perpendicular to the midplane of the ply. In general, crack propagation in the direction of the fiber axis controls the strength of thin plies, while cracking in the direction perpendicular to the fiber axis determines the strength of thick plies. The theory relates ply thickness, crack geometry and ply toughness to ply strength. It predicts a significant increase in strength with decreasing ply thickness in constrained thin plies. The strength of thick plies is found to be constant, but it may be reduced by preexisting damage. Results are illustrated by comparison with experimental data.     

Criteria for judging the admissibility of eyewitness testimony of long past events.

Court cases of recovered memories of childhood abuse, in which the victim's testimony may constitute the only evidence available, and a growing body of research demonstrating the inexactitude and suggestibility of autobiographical memory of long past events, are forcing courts and cognitive scientists to seek scientific, principled criteria for admissibility of such testimony. The authors use as examples 2 recent court cases. In the 1st case, a concussion produced total retrograde amnesia for an accident for a period of 3 years, and then, over a few months, the driver claimed his memory returned. In the 2nd, 2 adults reported to the police that they witnessed their sister's murder 35 years earlier, when they were 3 and 5 years old, respectively. The authors provide objective guidelines for courts to determine whether testimony about recovered or very-long-term memory for eyewitnessed events should be admissible. The principles outlined can be expanded easily to include eyewitness testimony in general. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Blastomycosis as an etiology of acute lung injury

Blastomyces dermatitidis, a dimorphic broad-based budding yeast endemic to the Mississippi River Valley region, is responsible for morbidity in humans via inhalation and dissemination. The response of acute lung injury, which produces an illness with serious morbidity and an approximately 50% mortality, uncommonly occurs. Diagnosis can be difficult, and a high index of suspicion should be maintained in endemic regions for patients with acute lung injury of uncertain etiology, especially if their condition deteriorates on broad-spectrum antimicrobial and antitubercular therapy and they have a previous insidious respiratory complaint and constitutional symptoms. Diagnosis should be aggressively pursued and treatment with amphotericin B (0.6 to 0.8 mg/kg/day) initiated as early as possible.