Combining forecasts in short term load forecasting: Empirical analysis and identification of robust forecaster

We present an empirical analysis to show that combination of short term load forecasts leads to better accuracy. We also discuss other aspects of combination, i.e., distribution of weights, effect of variation in the historical window and distribution of forecast errors. The distribution of forecast errors is analyzed in order to get a robust forecast. We define a robust forecaster as one which has consistency in forecast accuracy, lesser shocks (outliers) and lower standard deviation in the distribution of forecast errors. We propose a composite ranking (CRank) scheme based on a composite score which considers three performance measures—standard deviation, kurtosis of distribution of forecast errors and accuracy of forecasts. The CRank helps in identification of a robust forecasts given a choice of individual and combined forecaster. The empirical analysis has been done with the real life data sets of two distribution companies in India.     

Physico chemical,microstructural and sensory characteristics of low‐fat meat emulsion containing aloe gel as potential fat replacer

In this study, a possible use of aloe gel (AG) as a potential fat replacer in the manufacture of low‐fat meat emulsion was investigated. The low‐fat meat emulsions with added AG and vegetable oil (VO) in different proportions [AG7.5 (7.5% AG + 7.5% VO); AG5 (5% AG + 10% VO); AG2.5 (2.5% AG + 12.5% VO)] were compared with full‐fat meat emulsion [Control (15% VO only)]. A substantial fat reduction (P < 0.05) up to 50% as compared to full‐fat control meat emulsion was recorded without compromising other sensory attributes of meat emulsion. Microstructural properties as studied by scanning electron microscopy indicated more homogenous regular emulsion matrix with fewer cracks and more regular shaped oil droplets in AG‐added samples than the control samples.     

Evaluation of Optimal River Training Work Using GA Based Linked Simulation-Optimization Approach

Use of structural measures for controlling a river to minimize its devastating effect and to utilize it for the benefit of mankind is a common practice all over the world. Because of high investment, such measures require prior investigation through model study. As lab based physical model study is very expensive and time consuming, mathematical modeling is generally used for investigating different alternatives of river training works. In this study, a new approach is proposed for deciding appropriate river training measure in a particular reach of a river or channel. In this methodology, an optimization model is linked with the hydrodynamic model for obtaining cost effective combination of groynes which will maintain a user defined flow speed in a pre-decided portion of a river reach. The optimization model is developed using binary coded Genetic Algorithm (GA) and the flow simulation model uses the Beam and Warming scheme for solving the two dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic equations of unsteady flow. The performance of the model is tested by applying the methodology in a rectangular channel for attaining different target speed values at a pre-defined portion of the channel and logical results have been obtained for all the tested scenarios.     

Characterization and Low Temperature Study of Iron Telluride Thin Films Upon Ageing and Oxygen Ion Irradiation

The occurrence of superconductivity in iron telluride thin films has been observed upon ageing. The superconducting transition is found to be very robust under an application of magnetic fields up to 10 T. Infrared and Raman spectroscopic characterization of the aged films reveal the formation of Fe_1+δTeO _x upon ageing. As an alternative method of introducing oxygen in FeTe thin film, oxygen ion irradiation has also been carried out It is found that the irradiated film becomes increasingly disordered and ultimately transforms to an amorphous phase upon increasing the irradiation dose. Investigation of electrical resistivity and optical reflectivity of the irradiated FeTe films indicates an interesting possibility of an ion irradiationinduced phase change memory material in analogy to the phase change characteristics of laserirradiated FeTe films.     

Efficient fog removal from video

In this paper, a framework of real-time video processing for fog removal using uncalibrated single camera system is proposed. Intelligent use of temporal redundancy present in video frames paves the way for real-time implementation. Any fog removal algorithm for images acquired with uncalibrated single camera system can be extended to video using the proposed framework. For the purpose of real-time implementation, several fog removal algorithms for images are investigated and few top ranking algorithms in speed and quality are chosen. Simulation results confirm that proposed framework reduces the computation per frame significantly. Proposed fog removal framework has a wide application in navigation, transportation, and other industries.     

EFFECT OF DRAW FURNACE GEOMETRY ON HIGH-SPEED OPTICAL FIBER MANUFACTURING

Optimal design of the draw furnace is particularly desirable to meet the need of high-volume production in the optical fiber industry. This article investigates the thermal transport and flow in optical fiber drawing at high draw speeds in a cylindrincal graphite furnace. A conjugate problem involving the glass and the purge gases is solved. The transport in the two regions is coupled through the boundary conditions at the free glass surface. The neck-down profile of the preform at steady state is determined by a force balance, using an iterative numerical scheme. To emphasize the effects of draw furnace geometry, the diameters of the preform and the fiber are kept fixed. Only the length and the diameter of the furnace are changed. For the purposes of comparison, a wide domain of draw speeds, ranging from 5 m/s to 20 m/s, is considered, and the form of the temperature distribution at the furnace surface remains unchanged. The dependence of the preform/fiber characteristics on the furnace geometry are demonstrated quantitively. Based on these numerical results, an optimal design of the draw furnace can be developed.     

PLA/functionalized‐gum arabic based bionanocomposite films for high gas barrier applications

The present work focuses on the microwave synthesis of lactic acid‐grafted‐gum arabic (LA‐g‐GA) by polycondensation reaction and its influence as an additive to improve the gas barrier properties of poly(lactic acid) (PLA) films, prepared by solution casting method. It is observed that during the synthesis of LA‐g‐GA, hydrophilic gum is converted into hydrophobic due to grafting of in situ grown hydrophobic oligo‐(lactic acid). Subsequently, PLA/LA‐g‐GA bionanocomposite films are fabricated and characterized for structural, thermal, mechanical and gas barrier properties. Path breaking reduction in oxygen permeability (OP) of ～10 folds is achieved in case of PLA films containing LA‐g‐GA as filler. However, water vapor transmission rate (WVTR) is reduced up to 27% after 5 wt % addition of filler. Reduction in OP of this order of magnitude enables the PLA to compete with PET in term of enhancing shelf life and maintaining the food quality. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Appl. Polym. Sci. 2016 , 133, 43458.     

Exploration of a Library of 3,4‐(Methylenedioxy)aniline‐Derived Semicarbazones as Dual Inhibitors of Monoamine Oxidase and Acetylcholinesterase: Design,Synthesis, and Evaluation

A library of 3,4‐(methylenedioxy)aniline‐derived semicarbazones was designed, synthesized, and evaluated as monoamine oxidase (MAO) and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitors for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases. Most of the new compounds selectively inhibited MAO‐B and AChE, with IC₅₀ values in the micro‐ or nanomolar ranges. Compound 16 , 1‐(2,6‐dichlorobenzylidene)‐4‐(benzo[1,3]dioxol‐5‐yl)semicarbazide presented a balanced multifunctional profile of MAO‐A (IC₅₀=4.52±0.032 μm ), MAO‐B (IC₅₀=0.059±0.002 μm ), and AChE (IC₅₀=0.0087±0.0002 μm ) inhibition without neurotoxicity. Kinetic studies revealed that compound 16 exhibits competitive and reversible inhibition against MAO‐A and MAO‐B, and mixed‐type inhibition against AChE. Molecular docking studies further revealed insight into the possible interactions within the enzyme–inhibitor complexes. The most active compounds were found to interact with the enzymes through hydrogen bonding and hydrophobic interactions. Additionally, in silico molecular properties and ADME properties of the synthesized compounds were calculated to explore their drug‐like characteristics.