Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface

The use of computer models offers a general and flexible framework that can help to deal with some of the complexities and difficulties associated with the development of water management plans as prescribed by the Water Framework Directive. However, despite the advantages modelling presents, the integration of information derived from models into policy is far away from being trivial or the norm. Part of the difficulties of this integration is rooted in the lack of confidence policy makers have on the incorporation of modelling information into policy formulation. In this paper we examine the reasons for this apparent lack of confidence and explore how some tools, presently in use, address this problem. We conclude that public confidence in models is highly dependent on the way uncertainties are addressed and suggest possible directions of action to improve the current situation. Four real case studies illustrate how computer models have been used in The Netherlands for carrying out management plans at regional and national scale. We suggest that the solution to integrate modelling information into policy formulation lies on both the modelling and the policy-making communities.     

Numerische Simulation der Faserbewegung beim Strangpressen kurzfaserverstärkter Glasschmelzen

Numerical Simulation of the Fibre-Motion during the Extrusion of Short-Fibre-Reinforced Glass-Melts Fibre-reinforced materials are characterized by an anisotropic behaviour of the mechanical properties, which is caused by the alignment of the embedded fibres. In the case of short-fibre-compounds this behaviour is strongly influenced by the mechanism of flow during the manufacturing process. Numerical simulation Methods are preferentially used to get informations about the orientation of the reinforced fibres at the end of the molding-process and to improve the properties of the compound. For that, a model is developed, which calculates the motion of the short-fibres in the area of flow, basing on a three-dimensional finite-element-computation. Thereby the interaction between the Particular fibres during the orientation process is considered by using an interaction coefficient. Examplified at the extrusion of short fibre reinforced glass-melts, the fibre orientation is determined at models with different geometries of the pressing tool and variable boundary conditions. This procedure allows to determine the influence of the process-parameters On the expected quality of the composite. The represented simulation-model can also be used for other molding- and extrusion-processes of fibre reinforced materials.     

Heterogeneity effects in visual search predicted from the group scanning model.

The group scanning model of feature integration theory suggests that Ss search visual displays serially by groups, but process items within each group in parallel. Group size is determined by the discriminability of the targets in the background of distractors. When the target is poorly discriminable, the size of the scanned group will be small, and search will be slow. The model predicts that group size will be smallest when targets of an intermediate value on a perceptual dimension are presented in a heterogeneous background of distractors that have higher and lower values on the same dimension. Experiment 1 (30 Ss) demonstrates this effect; Exp 2 (12 Ss) controls for a possible confound of decision complexity in Exp 1. For simple feature targets, the group scanning model provides a good account of the visual search process. (French abstract) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Frontal brain activation in repressors and nonrepressors.

Assessed whether resting anterior asymmetry would discriminate individual differences in repressive-defensive coping styles. In 2 sessions, resting electroencephalogram was recorded from female adults during 8 60-sec baselines. Ss were classified as repressors or nonrepressors on the basis of scores on the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MC), the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). In midfrontal and lateral frontal sites, repressors demonstrated relative left hemisphere activation when compared with other groups. The MC, but not the STAI or the BDI, contributed unique variance to frontal asymmetry. Relative left frontal activation may be linked to a self-enhancing regulatory style that promotes lowered risk for psychopathology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The vulnerability of geometric sequences based on fields of odd characteristic

A new method of cryptologic attack on binary sequences is given, using their linear complexities relative to odd prime numbers. We show that, relative to a particular prime number p, the linear complexity of a binary geometric sequence is low. It is also shown that the prime p can be determined with high probability by a randomized algorithm if a number of bits much smaller than the linear complexity is known. This determination is made by exploiting the imbalance in the number of zeros and ones in the sequences in question, and uses a new statistical measure, the partial imbalance.This project was sponsored by the National Security Agency under Grant No. MDA904-91-H-0012. The United States Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints notwithstanding any copyright notation hereon.     

Self-efficacy expectations predict survival for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Evaluated the validity of self-efficacy expectations as predictors of mortality for 119 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Ss completed 4 physiological measures that represent common clinical indicators of disease severity: forced expiratory volume in 1 s(FEV1.0), arterial blood gas measurement of resting partial pressure of oxygen (PaO?), single-breath diffusing capacity (DLCO), and maximum oxygen uptake (V02max) during exercise. In addition, self-reported self-efficacy expectation for walking on a treadmill was measured. Self-efficacy was a significant univariate predictor of 5-yr survival. However, when controlling for FEV1.0 in multivariate survival analysis, self-efficacy had only a marginal effect. Simple self-report scales may provide significant information about health status. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Ermüdungsverhalten und Dauerfestigkeit von Graphit und Aluminium – infiltriertem Graphit

Fatigue behaviour and endurance limit of graphite and of aluminium‐infiltrated graphite Fatigue properties of polycrystalline, isotropic graphite FU2590 and of FU2590 infiltrated with AlSi7Mg (FU2590/AlSi7Mg) were investigated in reversed bending tests at 25 Hz at numbers of cycles below 10⁷ and in tension‐compression tests at 20 kHz below 10⁹ cycles. The open porosity of Graphite (10‐11 Vol.‐%) was infiltrated with the aluminium alloy using the squeeze casting infiltration method, which led to an increase of the bending strength by 50 %, increase of tensile strength by 30 % and increase of stiffness by 15 %. Fully reversed tension‐compression loading of FU2590 delivers a mean endurance limit at 10⁹ cycles at the normalized maximum stresses (i.e. maximum tension stress of a cycle divided by the static strength) of 0,65±0,03. Mean numbers of cycles to failure of 10⁴ were found in fully reversed bending tests at the normalized maximum stress of 0,78. The infiltrated material shows approximately 30 % higher cyclic strength in reversed bending tests, and the mean endurance limit under tension compression loading increases by 15 %. The increased endurance limit of the infiltrated material is caused by the increased stiffness. The increased toughness of graphite due to the infiltration with aluminium is of additional beneficial influence at the higher cyclic stresses investigated in reversed bending tests and in static tests.     

Eyewitness persuasion: How and how well do fact finders judge the accuracy of adults' and children's memory reports?

Children (aged 5–6 and 9–10 yrs) and adults participated in an eventful laboratory session and provided memory reports of the session. In 3 experiments, college students and parents viewed videotapes of highly accurate and highly inaccurate reports. In 2 experiments, these "fact finders" rated adult witnesses more believable and accurate than younger child witnesses, even when both groups were equally accurate. Perceptions of confidence and consistency mediated credibility judgments. Accurate witnesses were judged more believable and accurate than inaccurate witnesses. Higher perceived confidence, longer free recall, and fewer memory failure admissions were associated with more accurate adult memory reports. Fact finders overused confidence and underused the other cues in achieving modest accuracy discernment. The results suggest how strong and weak memory reports differ and how fact finders may learn to differentiate them. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)