Time-series modeling of fishery landings using ARIMA models and Fuzzy Expected Intervals software

Forecasting, using historic time-series data, has become an important tool for fisheries management. ARIMA modeling, Modeling for Optimal Forecasting techniques and Decision Support Systems based on fuzzy mathematics may be used to predict the general trend of a given fish landings time-series with increased reliability and accuracy. The present paper applies these three modeling methods to forecast anchovy fish catches landed in a given port (Thessaloniki, Greece) during 1979–2000 and hake and bonito total fish catches during 1982–2000. The paper attempts to assess the model's accuracy by comparing model results to the actual monthly fish catches of the year 2000. According to the measures of forecasting accuracy established, the best forecasting performance for anchovy was shown by the DSS model (MAPE = 28.06%, RMSE = 76.56, U-statistic = 0.67 and R² = 0.69). The optimal forecasting technique of genetic modeling improved significantly the forecasting values obtained by the selected ARIMA model. Similarly, the DSS model showed a noteworthy forecasting efficiency for the prediction of hake landings, during the year 2000 (MAPE = 2.88%, RMSE = 13.75, U-statistic = 0.19 and R² = 0.98), as compared to the other two modeling techniques. Optimal forecasting produced by combined modeling scored better than application of the simple ARIMA model. Overall, DSS results showed that the Fuzzy Expected Intervals methodology could be used as a very reliable tool for short-term predictions of fishery landings.     

Supply chain optimisation for the process industries: Advances and opportunities

Supply chain management and optimisation is a critical aspect of modern enterprises and a flourishing research area. This paper presents a critical review of methodologies for enhancing the decision-making for process industry supply chains towards the development of optimal infrastructures (assets and network) and planning. The presence of uncertainty within supply chains is discussed as an important issue for efficient capacity utilisation and robust infrastructure decisions. The incorporation of business/financial and sustainability aspects is also considered and future challenges are identified.     

An Efficient Location Management Protocol for Wireless ATM Customer Premises Networks

In this paper we present a new location management protocol for wireless ATM networks, called LMCP (Location Management and Control Protocol). This protocol is based on the PNNI (Private Network-to-Network Interface) routing functionality to advertise the movement of mobile terminals within predefined areas. Moreover, LMCP uses specialized entities to store and retrieve the current location area of the mobile terminals. These entities are located in mobility enhanced switches that control the execution of mobility procedures (e.g., handovers).The main benefit from the application of LMCP is the establishment of connections that do not contain any misrouted segments. Furthermore, it requires minor modifications to the PNNI and enables its inter-working with other location management mechanisms. The protocol is compared with other similar mechanisms, and its efficiency is demonstrated by the results of an analytical model.     

Stereo vision for robotic applications in the presence of non-ideal lighting conditions

Many robotic and machine-vision applications rely on the accurate results of stereo correspondence algorithms. However, difficult environmental conditions, such as differentiations in illumination depending on the viewpoint, heavily affect the stereo algorithms’ performance. This work proposes a new illumination-invariant dissimilarity measure in order to substitute the established intensity-based ones. The proposed measure can be adopted by almost any of the existing stereo algorithms, enhancing it with its robust features. The performance of the dissimilarity measure is validated through experimentation with a new adaptive support weight (ASW) stereo correspondence algorithm. Experimental results for a variety of lighting conditions are gathered and compared to those of intensity-based algorithms. The algorithm using the proposed dissimilarity measure outperforms all the other examined algorithms, exhibiting tolerance to illumination differentiations and robust behavior.     

Supporting the WWW in Wireless Communications Through Mobile Agents

Mobile computing is considered of major importance to the computing industry for the forthcoming years due to the progress in wireless mobile communications. We present a proxy-based architecture that manages to accelerate Web browsing in wireless Customer Premises Networks (CPN). We discuss how such an architecture is implemented using the IBM Aglets framework for mobile agents. The suggested architecture relies heavily on proxy caches – maintained in base stations – which are relocated to follow a roaming user in other control areas (clusters of cells). The cache management scheme involves relocation of full caches to the most-likely-to-be visited control areas, but also fractions of the cache to less-likely-to-be-visited neighbours. A movement prediction algorithm, based on a learning automaton, is used to determine the future location of the terminal. The discussed architecture components have been implemented as Aglets to allow for the efficient introduction of the service in a CPN infrastructure.     

Study on transient heat transfer through multilayer thermal insulation: Numerical analysis and experimental investigation

This paper reports on a numerical and experimental study of heat transfer phenomena through two different multilayer fibrous insulations for building applications. The investigated samples were composed of different layers of fibrous materials and aluminium foils, placed between one or two air gaps in the vertical dimension. An experimental apparatus (a guarded hot box) has been used to measure heat transfer through the samples, while a finite volume numerical model combined radiation/conduction heat transfer was developed to predict the temperature distribution and heat transfer in such insulation systems comprised of the materials separated by multiple reflective foils. The model takes into account the coupling between the solid conduction of the fibrous system and the gaseous conduction and radiation. The radiation heat transfer through the insulation system has been modelled via the two flux approximation. The numerical results were compared with the experimental data from the guarded hot box for model validation, as well as to assess the effectiveness of the reflective foils in changing the resistance of the insulations. The comparative verification of the model showed that the numerical results were consistent with the experimental data through the environmental conditions under examination.     

Multi-parameter performance analysis for decentralized cognitive radio networks

In this paper, we investigate the impact of primary user activity, secondary user activity, interface switching, channel fading and finite-length queuing on the performance of decentralized cognitive radio networks. The individual processes of these service-disruptive effects are modeled as Markov chains based on cross-layer information locally available at the network nodes. A queuing analysis is conducted and various performance measures are derived regarding the packet loss, throughput, spectral efficiency, and packet delay distribution. Numerical results demonstrate the impact of various system parameters on the system performance, providing insights for cross-layer design and autonomous decision making in decentralized cognitive radio networks.     

Implementation of efficient algorithms for globally optimaltrajectories

We consider a continuous space shortest path problem in a two-dimensional plane. This is the problem of finding a trajectory that starts at a given point, ends at the boundary of a compact set of ℜ ², and minimizes a cost function of the form ∫_O^T r(x(t)) dt+q(x(T)). For a discretized version of this problem, a Dijkstra-like method that requires one iteration per discretization point has been developed by Tsitsiklis (1995). Here we develop some new label correcting-like methods based on the small label first methods of Bertsekas (1993) and Bertsekas et al. (1996). We prove the finite termination of these methods, and present computational results showing that they are competitive and often superior to the Dijkstra-like method and are also much faster than the traditional Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel methods     

Smoke data from the Cone Calorimeter for comparison with the room fire test

Smoke production in the full–scale room fire test ISO 9705 (Commonly referred to as the Room Corner Test) and in the Cone Calorimeter ISO 5660 has been analysed for three sets of building products comprising a total of 28 products. The smoke production may be critical for the fire classification of surface products since some products produce large amounts of smoke in the room fire test even if they do not reach flashover within 20 min. Several smoke parameters in the Cone Calorimeter and the room fire test have been analysed. Good correlations have been obtained when the products are divided into two groups: products with more than 10 min to flashover in the room fire test and those with less than 10 min. These two time categories correspond to the two heat output levels in the room fire test: 100 kW for the first 10 min and then 300 kW up to 20 min. For products with more than 10 min to flashover the average rate of smoke production and the total smoke production seem to be useful parameters for predictions of smoke release in the room fire test. Both parameters have good correlations between data from the Cone Calorimeter and the room fire test. For products with less than 10 min to flashover no parameter seems to give useful predictions. For all products evaluated together, the correlations are not so good, but the same regression lines as for products with more than 10 min might be used as a first rough estimate. In this case the total smoke production in the Cone Calorimeter could be used to estimate the total smoke production in the room fire test for different building products, independent of their estimated time to flashover. It is suggested that the average rate of smoke production and the total smoke production from the Cone Calorimeter is reported in addition to the mass-based specific extinction area. This will be helpful in predicting smoke release in the room fire test and will also make the data on smoke release analogous to those on heat release.