The adaptive fuzzy time series model with an application to Taiwan’s tourism demand

In this study, an adaptive fuzzy time series model for forecasting Taiwan’s tourism demand is proposed to further enhance the predicted accuracy. We first transfer fuzzy time series data to the fuzzy logic group, assign weights to each period, and then use the proposed adaptive fuzzy time series model for forecasting in which an enrollment forecasting values is applied to obtain the smallest forecasting error. Finally, an illustrated example for forecasting Taiwan’s tourism demand is used to verify the effectiveness of proposed model and confirmed the potential benefits of the proposed approach with a very small forecasting error MAPE and RMSE.     

ARMAX modelling of international tourism demand

Box–Jenkins (1970) models are often used to capture the autoregressive moving average of past observations of tourist arrivals from Japan to Taiwan and New Zealand. However, other explanatory variables, such as real income in the origin country, have also affected the demand for international travel. The purpose of this paper is to use the ARMAX model to investigate the dynamic relationship between tourism demand and real income of Japan, and to compare the findings with the single-equation model. Unit root tests and diagnostics are performed before estimating the income elasticity of travel demand by Japan for New Zealand and Taiwan based on seasonally unadjusted quarterly data for 1980(1) to 2004(2). The empirical results of the ARMAX model support the economic theory that the demand for international travel is positively related to income of the origin country.     

扬州“小巷游”产品开发初探

本文通过实地调研、访谈及查阅前人研究成果,对扬州小巷这一实物旅游资源进行目标市场调研与价值评价,进而探索塑造扬州"小巷游"品牌的有效方法,使其区别于上海小巷、北京胡同,自成一派,为扬州旅游业注入新鲜血液,从而提升扬州古城的整体旅游价值。     

Retraining effectiveness in FOODSAFE trained food handlers in British Columbia,Canada

The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of food handler retraining. The food safety knowledge of handlers who had been previously certified by the FOODSAFE training programme in British Columbia, Canada was compared prior to and nine months following FOODSAFE retraining. The previously FOODSAFE trained food handlers were selected from participants of a 2009 survey. Food safety knowledge scores were compared between (1) previously FOODSAFE trained food handlers who received retraining (the intervention group), (2) previously FOODSAFE trained food handlers who did not receive retraining (the control group), and (3) untrained food handlers (the untrained group). Data gathered in a telephone survey demonstrated knowledge scores were significantly higher in the intervention group when compared with the control group, and when compared with the untrained group. No differences in food safety knowledge scores were found based on English as a first language or receiving food safety training other than FOODSAFE. These results support a requirement for periodic recertification of trained food handlers and demonstrate a need for education of untrained food handlers with a food safety training programme.     

Restaurant business operators' knowledge of food hygiene and their attitudes toward official food control affect the hygiene in their restaurants

We surveyed the knowledge and attitudes of restaurant business operators (RBOs) with respect to their restaurants' hygiene. A total of 82 RBOs were interviewed and a hygiene evaluation was performed in each of the restaurants by one researcher. Fifty-six food control officials responded to an electronic questionnaire. Based on our results, positive correlations exist between hygiene knowledge of the RBOs, their attitudes toward food hygiene and official food control, and their restaurants' hygiene level. Proper justification of control measures used by food control officials and a negotiative approach appear to be highly important for improving restaurant hygiene.     

Determinants of repurchase intention in online group-buying: The perspectives of DeLone & McLean IS success model and trust

The purpose of this study is to propose a theoretical model to examine the antecedents of repurchase intention in online group-buying by integrating the perspective of DeLone & McLean IS success model and the literature of trust. The model was tested using the data collected from 253 customers of a group-buying website in Taiwan. The results show that satisfaction with website, satisfaction with sellers, and perceived quality of website have positive influences on repurchase intention, while perceived quality of website and perceived quality of sellers have significant impacts on satisfaction with website and satisfaction with sellers, respectively. The results also show that trust in website has positive influences on perceived quality of website and satisfaction with website, whereas trust in sellers influence perceived quality of sellers and satisfaction with sellers significantly. Finally, the results show that perceived size of website has positive influence on trust in website, while reputation of website and reputation of sellers significantly affect trust in website and trust in sellers, respectively. The implications for theory and practice and suggestions for future research are also discussed.     

Perceived derived attributes of online customer reviews

The influence of online customer reviews (OCRs) on customers' purchase intention has recently gained considerable attention, in both academic and business communities. Technology allows customers to freely and easily post their comments and opinions online about any product or service; this type of customer review can have a significant effect on customers' purchase decisions. Previous studies, however, have mainly focused on the influence of the virtual attributes of OCRs such as volume and valence on consumers' intentions, while limited attention has been paid to understanding the effects of the derived attributes. This study, thus, aims to understand the impact of the perceived derived attributes of OCRs on customer trust and intention. This study develops a – Perceived Derived Attributes (PDA) - model, based on the inclusion of perceived control from the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) with the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), in order to investigate the effects of OCRs on customers’ purchasing intention. A total of 489 responses to a survey were collected from users of amazon.com. The findings from this study suggest that customer trust in an e-vendor and their intention to shop online are significantly affected by perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use and perceived enjoyment of OCRs. Furthermore, the sense of control derived from OCRs significantly affects customer intention and significantly affects customer trust in e-vendors, particularly for customers who frequently check OCRs before making a purchase. Clearly, those attributes of OCRs are linked to the development of the shopping environment, which consequently can affect sales.     

A semi-cooperative decentralized scheduling scheme for plug-in electric vehicle charging demand

The paper proposes a decentralized control scheme for scheduling the flexible charging demand of plug-in electric vehicles in residential distribution networks. This control scheme is designed for execution by a multi-agent system at two consecutive stages of static and dynamic scheduling. The distinctive attributes of the developed control scheme are (i) to realistically prioritize both the customers’ and the utility’s objectives, (ii) to incorporate the uncertainty in the forecasted demand, (iii) to account for customers’ flexibility in their charging demand, and (iv) to specify a fair pricing scenario to all customers while protecting their privacy. The paper includes extensive numerical studies using a set of recorded real-world driving data, representing heterogeneous vehicular demand. In order to assess the efficacy of the proposed scheduling scheme, comparative assessments are also presented against an optimization-based charging scheduling scheme.     

Does waiving preventive food control inspections in Finland weaken the prerequisites for safe food handling in restaurants?

Finnish food control authorities waived pre-inspections of food premises in 2011, leaving food business operators to begin operating with no pre-operation food control. This study aims to investigate the effects of this food policy change on the preconditions for Good Hygienic Practices (GHPs) on food premises. Of the 916 food premises that were included in this study, 379 were pre-approved whereas 537 merely notified their operations. The results show that notified food service premises (restaurants) preparing food displayed significantly more non-compliance pertaining to infrastructure than did restaurants pre-approved for food preparation (11.5% and 1.8% of the premises, respectively) (p < 0.05). Significant differences also emerged in the number of premises with non-compliance pertaining to cleaning facilities and equipment, and marked differences in the adequacy of hand and other washing sites. Such instances of non-compliance weaken the preconditions for GHPs. The results suggest that re-introducing pre-inspections of restaurants would strengthen the preconditions for GHPs and possibly provide a model for other countries with similar food control systems.