基于极限学习机的堤防工程多元风险指标评价方法

为提高堤防工程风险评价的准确性,提出了基于极限学习机的堤防工程多元风险指标评价方法。首先,综合考虑影响堤防风险的28个评价指标,利用层次分析法从预警系统、堤防工程系统、环境系统和社会经济系统这4个方面建立了堤防工程多元风险评价指标体系。接着,基于极限学习机算法对28个指标进行标准化处理及分级标准构建,以风险指标作为输入量,分级隶属度作为输出量,划分风险等级,量化评价指标,估计多元风险评价指标值和判断风险的严重程度。最后,依托鄱阳湖重点堤防——康山大堤,构建多元风险评价指标体系,运用极限学习机算法计算多元风险评价指标值。评价结果表明:康山大堤目前处于基本安全水平,符合康山大堤经过两次加固后的工程实际情况,并与其他方法进行对比,验证了提出方法的可靠性和有效性。该方法可拓展应用到其他重要水工结构工程风险评估中。     

堤防工程标准化管理体系风险评估方法

为了完善堤防工程管理体系,依托鄱阳湖区重点堤防工程,将风险管理理论与堤防工程工作、技术、管理和考核标准化体系有机结合,建立了基于风险的堤防工程标准化管理体系,并且提出了标准化管理体系风险评估方法。首先,确定我国中部地区堤防工程生命、经济和社会与环境风险标准图;再借助风险矩阵法拟定生命、经济和社会与环境风险考核指标系数,估计综合考核指标系数,并将其融入标准化考核管理中得到基于风险的堤防工程标准化管理评分;最后,根据评分值来评价堤防工程标准化管理是否合格。结果表明:建立的堤防工程标准化管理体系不仅可为制定科学合理的堤防失事风险管理决策及措施提供理论和技术支持,而且可为其他堤防工程运行管理提供借鉴。     

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in Guangdong Province based on a cloud model

With a focus on the difficulty of quantitatively describing the degree of nonuniformity of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources, quantitative research was carried out on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in Guangdong Province from 1956 to 2000 based on a cloud model. The spatial variation of the temporal distribution characteristics and the temporal variation of the spatial distribution characteristics were both analyzed. In addition, the relationships between the numerical characteristics of the cloud model of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation were also studied. The results show that, using a cloud model, it is possible to intuitively describe the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in cloud images. Water resources in Guangdong Province and their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics are differentiated by their geographic locations. Downstream and coastal areas have a larger amount of water resources with greater uniformity and stronger stability in terms of temporal distribution. Regions with more precipitation possess larger amounts of water resources, and years with more precipitation show greater nonuniformity in the spatial distribution of water resources. The correlation between the nonuniformity of the temporal distribution and local precipitation is small, and no correlation is found between the stability of the nonuniformity of the temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation. The amount of water resources in Guangdong Province shows an increasing trend from 1956 to 2000, the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources declines, and the stability of the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources is enhanced.     

Identification of relationship between sunspots and natural runoff in the Yellow River based on discrete wavelet analysis

Annual natural runoff is an important index of a river, which may be affected by solar activities. In this study, 304 years of annual natural runoff at the Sanmenxia station located in the Yellow River and the sunspot relative number are decomposed with the application of a Complex Morlet. According to the results of real part, modulus and second power of modulus, the annual runoff series at the Sanmenxia station has an obvious periodic oscillation on 90–100, 50–80, 35–50, 15–35, about 10, and less than 10-year scales. Also, there are obvious periodic variability with 60–90 years, 30–50 years and about 10 years. There are two centers of energy: one is about 1840–1850 on 7–11-year scale and the other is about 1825–1925 on 60–70-year scale. From the wavelet variance, 3, 26, 46, 68 year periods are detected within a 100-year scale, and the 68-year period is the most significant. Similar analyses are conducted for the sunspot relative number within the same period 1700–2003. The sunspot series shows 11- and 60-year period variation, as well as eight energy centers. Then, the correlation analyses for 11- and 60-year serial scales are computed. From a long-term period (1700–2003) view, there is no notable correlation between the natural runoff and the sunspot relative number; however, it is evident that the correlations exist within a short-term period. The results also indicate that the relationships between solar activities and the natural runoff in the Yellow River are complicated.     

考虑混凝土坝位移动力突变盲点的安全监控模型

针对坝体位移时间序列中出现数据跳跃的现象,基于动力学互关因子指数法与云模型理论,提出了一种能准确辨识大坝位移时间序列中动力突变盲点位置的诊断方法,并构建了考虑动力突变盲点的混凝土坝位移安全监控模型。基于不确定性动力系统对大坝位移的演化分析,综合运用相空间重构、云模型及小波分析等数值处理方法,从所辨识数值序列中的动力突变盲点出发,研究了对大坝工作性态转异进行预测诊断的方法。工程实例表明,该方法能找准对应位移的动力突变盲点,可避免动力突变盲点对大坝位移序列的不利影响,提高了大坝位移安全监控模型的可靠性和科学性。     

渠道工程中保温板防冻胀设计

我国北方大部分地区都属于季节性冻土地区,输水渠道经常会由于地基的冻胀而遭到不同程度的破坏。目前虽有不少地区的输水渠道采用了聚苯乙烯保温板防冻胀措施,而且取得了一定的效果,但聚苯乙烯保温板防冻胀设计还处在初级阶段。提出渠道工程中保温板防冻胀的设计方法,首先介绍了聚苯乙烯保温板的物理、力学以及冻融循环特性;然后论述了干燥和湿润状态下如何选取保温板厚度;最后结合工程实例说明了设计过程。对同类工程的设计有参考借鉴意义。     

高密度电法在顶管施工选址勘探中的应用

对施工区钻孔勘探发现该区域地层复杂,存在大量卵石及其它坚硬岩石,这对顶管掘进会造成很大影响,需要为顶管施工选择合适、有效的施工场址,降低卡钻概率。采用高密度电法技术勘探设备对施工区地层进行详细的勘测,首先对施工区域附近断崖层进行测量,对比剖面反演图分析,证明了高密度电法技术在对地层分布、岩层产状勘探解释上的可靠性,最后采用温纳装置和斯伦贝格装置分别对拟施工区域进行勘测并取得了较好的效果,初步为顶管施工拟定了一条卵石分布较少、卡钻概率较低的地下埋深走向,也减少了钻孔勘探量。     

Application of a dynamic numerical solution to high speed fracture experiments—I. analysis of experimental geometries

The application of a dynamic, generation mode, finite element program to the analysis of experimental geometries is reported. Particular attention is given to the DCB specimen, which is widely used in high speed fracture studies despite strong inertia effects, which are described. Finite strip and infinite plate results are also considered. Here, idealised cases are discussed, while in Part II the application of the analysis to experimental measurements, to derive propagating crack fracture resistance data, is reported.     

商品混凝土早龄期受拉强度的试验研究

在钢筋混凝土工程中,混凝土抗拉强度大多数采用劈裂法检测,探明劈裂抗拉强度与轴心抗拉强度之间的关系有着工程实际意义,但国内外文献中对二者之间的关系没有统一的定论。为较精确地获得混凝土早期抗拉强度,利用自行设计、制作的混凝土轴心受拉试验装置成功地解决了试件对中困难的问题。并对C20、C40、C60三个强度等级的商品混凝土进行了3、71、4、28d和60d的轴心抗拉强度试验,试验结果均不离散。得出了商品混凝土早龄期抗拉强度和立方体抗压强度的关系,并拟合出了商品混凝土轴心抗拉强度和劈裂强度之间的关系式,并从微观角度分析了二者破坏机理的区别。