水文序列相依变异识别的RIC定阶准则——以自回归模型为例

水文过程相依性是水文变异的主要表现形式之一,应用自回归模型对其进行拟合时合理确定模型阶数是一个难点问题。本文在分析AIC和BIC准则的基础上,提出了一种以原序列与其相依成分的相关系数作为拟合度指标,同时借用信息熵形式的函数式,作为模型不确定性度量指标的自回归模型定阶准则(简称RIC准则)。以AR(1)、AR(2)、AR(3)和AR(4)模型为例进行统计试验,将不同序列长度下该准则的定阶准确率与其他定阶准则进行比较,试验结果表明,RIC准则对于上述模型均具有较好的适应性,且定阶准确率远高于AIC准则,其中对于前三阶模型RIC准则优于BIC准则,但四阶模型略低于BIC准则。RIC准则的优势是可以同时满足模型定阶、相依程度分级与模型检验的需求,将其应用于实测水文序列分析,结果显示,该准则能较准确地识别自回归模型的阶数,且符合提出的"相依有变异而残差无变异的最小阶数"的检验标准。     

Response of Hydrodynamics and Water-quality Conditions to Climate Change in a Shallow Lake

Lake water resources operation and water quality management come up with higher challenges due to climate change. The frequency and intensity of extreme hydrological events are increasing under global warming, which may directly lead to more uncertainty and complexity for hydrodynamic and water-quality conditions in large shallow lake. However, studies about effects of climate change on lake hydrodynamic and water-quality conditions are not enough. Thus, a coupled model is es-tablished to investigate the potential responses of lake water level, flow field and pollutant migra-tion to the changing climatic factors. The results imply that water flow capacity and self-purification in the Hongze Lake can be improved by west, northwest, north, south and southeast winds indi-cating wind filed change has a great effect on the hydrodynamic and water-quality conditions in large shallow lake. It is further observed that both hydrodynamics and water quality are more sensitive to rainfall change than to temperature change; compared to the effect from temperature and rainfall, the effect from wind field appear to be more pronounced. Moreover, the results verify the feasibility of coupling basin hydrological model with lake hydrodynamic and water quality model. To the best of knowledge, the coupled model should not be used until independent calibra-tions and verifications for hydrodynamics and water quality modeling, the hydrological model and the coupled model.

     

济南主城区不透水地表分布分析及其水文效应

以济南市主城区范围为研究区,通过现场调研、遥感解译和划分标记的手段获取并探究其不透水地表分布。研究发现,济南市主城区范围内绿化率达到33.9%,不透水面积占比为65.3%。采用HIMS-SWMM模型进行小时尺度径流模拟,据此探究济南市主城区范围内各行政区不透水地表格局下其径流系数的变化情况。以2016年7-8月降雨作为输入,整个研究区共降水125.23mm,下渗量为36.33mm,产生的径流量为88.9mm,整个济南市主城区总体径流系数为0.71。各用地类型的不透水面占比与径流系数有较强的线性关系,其变化分为阈值型和渐变型。对于阈值型用地类型,可进行较为集中的绿化措施或LID措施;对于渐变型用地类型,可采用放缓的逐步绿化或LID措施,在集中改善阈值型用地类型的不透水面占比的同时,辅以较小范围的改善措施,以达到较为经济有效的防止内涝目的。     

A detection problem: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a land surface temperature approach to detecting dynamics of water use by groundwater-dependent vegetation

Sustainable management of groundwater-dependent vegetation (GDV) requires the accurate identification of GDVs, characterisation of their water use dynamics and an understanding of associated errors. This paper presents sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of one GDV mapping method which uses temperature differences between time-series of modelled and observed land surface temperature (LST) to detect groundwater use by vegetation in a subtropical woodland. Uncertainty in modelled LST was quantified using the Jacobian method with error variances obtained from literature. Groundwater use was inferred where modelled and observed LST were significantly different using a Student's t-test. Modelled LST was most sensitive to low-range wind speeds (<1.5 m s⁻¹), low-range vegetation height (<=0.5 m), and low-range leaf area index (<=0.5 m² m⁻²), limiting the detectability of groundwater use by vegetation under such conditions. The model-data approach was well-suited to detection of GDV because model-data errors were lowest for climatic conditions conducive to groundwater use.     

流域一、二级水生态分区技术及在辽河流域的应用

基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应指标分析框架,提出水生态一、二级分区所适用的指标类别,在环境要素与水生态系统因子相关性分析和环境要素空间变异尺度分析基础上,建立了流域水生态一、二级分区指标体系。采用"自上而下"和"自下而上"相结合的分区方法,在辽河流域进行了水生态一、二级分区应用研究,将辽河流域划分为4个水生态一级分区和8个二级分区,并对各个水生态分区的特征进行了总结。辽河流域分区应用表明,水生态分区过程中仍然存在较大的主观因素,尤其是水生态二级分区边界的确定。     

黑河下游河道渗漏面积的估算及其精度初步研究

黑河流域是我国西北干旱区内陆河的一个典型流域,其下游生态环境用水主要来源于地下水,地下水的补给主要通过河流的渗漏过程,因此河道渗漏补给是下游生态用水的主要来源。定量确定河道渗漏水量之前,首先需要确定河道渗漏面积。由于野外条件的限制,河道过水过程中黑河下游狼心山至东居延海区间河道的渗漏面积实地测量非常困难。根据水文流量资料选取2001年、2002年、2004年、2009年四年中全断面过水ETM遥感影像数据,在此基础上,运用遥感与GIS技术研究了对应时间黑河下游河道渗漏面积。选取具有不同特征的五段河道,运用AutoCAD软件对遥感提取结果进行误差分析,得到平均相对误差为4.29%,证明直接利用监督分类方法提取得到的结果具有较高的精度。在此基础上,建立渗漏面积与河长之间的关系。为该区域的水文过程及河道周围生态环境等的研究提供了数据和研究基础。     

An Initial Inventory and Indexation of Groundwater Mega-Depletion Cases

The state of groundwater systems worldwide is presently not well defined, and in particular there is little context for agencies responsible for managing water resources to evaluate occurrences of groundwater depletion against other cases globally. In this study, an initial inventory of groundwater depletion problems is compiled and ranked to identify the world’s most critical cases, i.e. situations of groundwater mega-depletion. The ranking is based on an indexed approach that considers overdraft, drawdown and subsidence, plus the importance of the resources in terms of population-dependency and rates of extraction. The five most highly ranked depleted aquifers of the world include the shallow aquifers of the Hai River Plain (China), the Altiplano region (Spain), the Mexico Basin (Mexico), the Huang River basin (China) and the California Central Valley (USA). An abridged account of modelling to assess drawdown is described for the Hai River Plain, revealing that despite recharge in the order of 13,000 GL/yr, an overdraft of about 8,000 GL/yr is occurring to support the vast population of the region. This has led to up to 100 m of drawdown in places and reports of subsidence of several metres. The Hai River situation demonstrates that falling water levels may not act to alleviate pumping stresses; a symptom of unchecked extraction and an exemplary illustration of the tragedy of the commons. The causal factors leading to mega-depletion are varying across the globe and each mega-depletion case contains unique elements, although population appears to be an important factor.     

Modeling and analysis of effects of precipitation and vegetation coverage on runoff and sediment yield in Jinsha River Basin

This paper focuses on the effects of precipitation and vegetation coverage on runoff and sediment yield in the Jinsha River Basin. Results of regression analysis were taken as input variables to investigate the applicability of the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to simulating annual runoff and sediment yield. Correlation analysis indicates that runoff and sediment yield are positively correlated with the precipitation indices, while negatively correlated with the vegetation indices. Furthermore, the results of stepwise regression show that annual precipitation is the most important factor influencing the variation of runoff, followed by forest coverage, and their contributions to the variation of runoff are 69.8% and 17.3%, respectively. For sediment yield, rainfall erosivity is the most important factor, followed by forest coverage, and their contributions to the variation of sediment yield are 49.3% and 24.2%, respectively. The ANFIS model is of high precision in runoff forecasting, with a relative error of less than 5%, but of poor precision in sediment yield forecasting, indicating that precipitation and vegetation coverage can explain only part of the variation of sediment yield, and that other impact factors, such as human activities, should be sufficiently considered as well.     

黑河中游典型灌区地下水位的动态变化

基于黑河沿岸地下水位观测井近20年实测观测资料,运用Mann-Kendall方法进行年地下水埋深序列的趋势分析,并选取代表观测井分析不同区域在不同时期内的年际与年内变化。结果表明:研究区地下水位埋深整体为增大趋势,区域地下水位下降趋势明显。年内的季节分配表明,从20世纪80年代至今,地下水位变化由水文-灌溉型逐步向开采型转变,其中平川区开采作用最为明显,集中表现在2000年之后,分水是导致这一时期地下水位下降的主要因素。