Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

用作图法测定R50的理论分析

研究了步、机枪射击密集度试验中弹着点半经的顺序统计量，给出了作图法测定Ｒ_（５０）的理论分析，得到了作图法是测定Ｒ_（５０）的好方法的结论．     

Generalization of the Gram-Charlier/Edgeworth Series and Application to Time-Frequency Analysis

We derive a general equation relating probability densities and as special cases we the obtain Gram-Charlier and Edgeworth series. This allows us to generalize these methods and clarify a number of issues pertaining to both probability theory and time-frequency analysis. In particular we show how the Gram-Charlier and Edgeworth series are related to the kernel method of time-frequency analysis. The approach allows us to construct densities that satisfy given constraints such as joint moments or conditional moments. Also, we show that the kernel has to be signal dependent and that to obtain a proper distribution it should be the ratio of two characteristic functions.     

评定飞航导弹单发命中概率的方法研究

通过对抽样检验方法的研究,确立了区间估计的下限公式,用来在已知样本值的情况下确定导弹单发命中概率出现在该区间内的置信水平和精确度。     

Impact of dams on point bar habitat: a case for the extirpation of the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle,C. hirticollis abrupta

Quantitative analyses of flow and stage data, remote sensing and geographic information systems analysis, and field studies were used to assess the impact of dams and diversions on the point bar habitat of the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle (Cicindela hirticollis abrupta). The reaches of interest include sites of known historic populations of C. h. abrupta along the Sacramento River from approximately 8 km north of Colusa southward to the confluence with the Feather River and along the Feather River between Yuba City and its confluence with the Sacramento River. The results from this study show that construction of two major dams has altered flows such that prolonged and increased flows during summer, fall, and early winter have most likely disrupted life cycles, flooded larvae, drowned overwintering adults and led to high mortality. Additionally, habitat availability has decreased over time because point bars have decreased in number and area causing increased distances between populations and isolation of populations. Moreover, point bar armouring, channel scouring, altered flows, redirected flows through weirs, and lithologic controls have produced a bimodal distribution of mean grain sizes in the Sacramento River in which the more northern bars contain gravel deposits and more southern bars possess fine sands. These conditions negatively alter moisture retention and sediment compaction and, consequently, burrowing conditions needed by this tiger beetle. Additionally, more stabilized flows (reduced variability) and increased fine‐grained deposition have enabled development and encroachment of vegetation onto the sand bars. Finally, human stresses, such as foot traffic and vehicular traffic may have interfered with burrowing, ovipositing, and foraging. The combination of these stress factors has most likely led to a reduction in source populations and, ultimately, the apparent extirpation of the entire metapopulation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

复合聚全氟乙丙烯材料的介电及高频击穿性能研究

在聚全氟乙丙烯(FEP)中添加 TiO_2和 Al_2O_3,通过热压成型的方法制备了 FEP/TiO_2复合材料和 FEP/Al_2O_3复合材料,研究了氧化物添加量对复合材料介电常数、介电损耗和高频击穿性能的影响。结果表明,随氧化物含量的增加,复合材料的介电常数和介电损耗均增加;在同一添加量下,TiO_2对复合体系的介电性能影响较大。FEP/TiO_2复合材料的高频击穿性能随 TiO_2含量的增加而下降,在 TiO_2含量为4.0%(质量分数,下同)时,复合材料的损伤阈值已降为 FEP 材料损伤阈值的48.9 %。而 FEP/Al_2O_3复合材料的高频击穿性能随 Al_2O_3含量的增加而升高,当 Al_2O_3含量为1.2%时,复合材料的损伤阈值已增大到 FEP 材料损伤阈值的2倍,达到313 J/m~2。     

三相异步电动机运行指标的分析

利用电机学理论分析了影响电机起动转矩、起动电流、最大转矩和最小转矩的因素。     

磁盘访问时间的近似计算方法

传统的磁盘访问时间由磁头寻道、盘片旋转和磁头读写3部分累加得出，通过引入随机变量和访问概率等数学工具来计算磁盘访问时间，具有精确度更高、实用价值强等优点。     

非均匀裂缝性油藏压力动态

在介绍具有连续基质颗粒大小分布和孔间表皮裂缝性油藏的不稳定压力分析模型的同时。提出了代表实际变化的裂缝密度和均匀性油藏的基质岩块大小分布概率密度函数，给出Laplace空间井筒压力解。该理论通过裂缝跨度变化拓宽了以前的双孔隙油藏模型，在不考虑孔间表皮的情况下，对非均匀裂缝性油藏压力动态进行了分析。     

集团变分法(CVM)及其在合金相图计算中的应用

介绍了集团变分法的集团概率变量、配置熵等统计分析的理论基础及Helmholtz自由能的描述模型.提出了巨势及相对化学势的几何分析理论.讨论了应用集团变分法和巨势分析理论进行相平衡计算的过程,并分析了同结构平衡相图计算的若干实例.