Stress-deformable state of isotropic double curved shell with internal cracks and a circular hole

This work is devoted to the stress–strain state of isotropic double curved shell with defect system. The construction is weakened by two non-through thickness (internal) cracks of different length and by a circular hole located between cracks. In this study we use the line-spring model. Within the framework of this model cracks are modeled as mathematical cuts of shell’s middle surface. This leads to a two-dimensional problem. The problem is reduced to a system of eight boundary integral equations. To ensure the uniqueness of solution an additional equation is added. In the numerical solution of the problem special quadrature formulas for singular integrals of Cauchy type and the finite difference method are applied. The influence of defects on each other for double curved shell has been investigated. The given theoretical results can be used for the calculation of structural elements with holes, cracks on the strength and fracture toughness in various branches of engineering.     

State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

ARIMA is seldom used in supply chains in practice. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size of available data, which restricts the usage of the model. Keeping in mind this restriction, we discuss in this paper a state-space ARIMA model with a single source of error and show how it can be efficiently used in the supply-chain context, especially in cases when only two seasonal cycles of data are available. We propose a new order selection algorithm for the model and compare its performance with the conventional ARIMA on real data. We show that the proposed model performs well in terms of both accuracy and computational time in comparison with other ARIMA implementations, which makes it efficient in the supply-chain context.     

Adaptive actuator failure compensation design for unknown chaotic multi‐input systems

In this paper, an adaptive control approach is designed for compensating the faults in the actuators of chaotic systems and maintaining the acceptable system stability. We propose a state‐feedback model reference adaptive control scheme for unknown chaotic multi‐input systems. Only the dimensions of the chaotic systems are required to be known. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, new adaptive control laws are synthesized to accommodate actuator failures and system nonlinearities. An illustrative example is studied. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the design method. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Global Maximum Error Controller Based Nonlinearity Aware TPWL Method for Reducing Nonlinear Systems

Abstract

Model order reduction is a common practice to reduce large order systems so that their simulation and control become easy. Nonlinearity aware trajectory piecewise linear is a variation of trajectory piecewise linearization technique of order reduction that is used to reduce nonlinear systems. With this scheme, the reduced approximation of the system is generated by weighted sum of the linearized and reduced sub-models obtained at certain linearization points on the system trajectory. This scheme uses dynamically inspired weight assignment that makes the approximation nonlinearity aware. Just as weight assignment, the process of linearization points selection is also important for generating faithful approximations. This article uses a global maximum error controller based linearization points selection scheme according to which a state is chosen as a linearization point if the error between a current reduced model and the full order nonlinear system reaches a maximum value. A combination that not only selects linearization points based on an error controller but also assigns dynamic inspired weights is shown in this article. The proposed scheme generates approximations with higher accuracies. This is demonstrated by applying the proposed method to some benchmark nonlinear circuits including RC ladder network and inverter chain circuit and comparing the results with the conventional schemes.     

A bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) for stock price prediction: Case study of DAX stock price

Creating an intelligent system that can accurately predict stock price in a robust way has always been a subject of great interest for many investors and financial analysts. Predicting future trends of financial markets is more remarkable these days especially after the recent global financial crisis. So traders who access to a powerful engine for extracting helpful information throw raw data can meet the success. In this paper we propose a new intelligent model in a multi-agent framework called bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) to predict stock price. The model performs in a four layer multi-agent framework to predict eight years of DAX stock price in quarterly periods. The capability of BNNMAS is evaluated by applying both on fundamental and technical DAX stock price data and comparing the outcomes with the results of other methods such as genetic algorithm neural network (GANN) and some standard models like generalized regression neural network (GRNN), etc. The model tested for predicting DAX stock price a period of time that global financial crisis was faced to economics. The results show that BNNMAS significantly performs accurate and reliable, so it can be considered as a suitable tool for predicting stock price specially in a long term periods.     

A case-deletion diagnostic for penalized calibration estimators and BLUP under linear mixed models in survey sampling

The penalized calibration technique in survey sampling combines usual calibration and soft calibration by introducing a penalty term. Certain relevant estimates in survey sampling can be considered as penalized calibration estimates obtained as particular cases from an optimization problem with a common basic structure. In this framework, a case deletion diagnostic is proposed for a class of penalized calibration estimators including both design-based and model-based estimators. The diagnostic compares finite population parameter estimates and can be calculated from quantities related to the full data set. The resulting diagnostic is a function of the residual and leverage, as other diagnostics in regression models, and of the calibration weight, a singular feature in survey sampling. Moreover, a particular case, which includes the basic unit level model for small area estimation, is considered. Both a real and an artificial example are included to illustrate the diagnostic proposed. The results obtained clearly show that the proposed diagnostic depends on the calibration and soft-calibration variables, on the penalization term, as well as on the parameter to estimate.     

A practical Equivalent Electrical Circuit model for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) systems

An alternative Equivalent Electrical Circuit for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells is modelled in this study. Both I–V characteristics and H₂ consumptions corresponding to generated power under load and no-load conditions are investigated. For this purpose, H₂ consumptions and I–V characteristics of three different sized PEMFCs are tested. There is a very good harmony between the model results and measured values (relative error %0.7, %6.4 and %2.5 for FC-A, FC-B and FC-C respectively). In the proposed model current passes only on parallel resistance and not on serial resistance at no-load condition. Thus, a FC with higher parallel resistance should be preferred. Another key output of this study is that based on the proposed model, performance comparison of FCs can be performed with the parameters defined in this work. Proposals made in this study can easily be used for performance analysis of FCs under for both steady state and transient analysis.     

Gradient-based recursive parameter estimation for a periodically nonuniformly sampled-data Hammerstein–Wiener system based on the key-term separation

The identification of the Hammerstein–Wiener (H-W) systems based on the nonuniform input–output dataset remains a challenging problem. This article studies the identification problem of a periodically nonuniformly sampled-data H-W system. In addition, the product terms of the parameters in the H-W system are inevitable. In order to solve the problem, the key-term separation is applied and two algorithms are proposed. One is the key-term-based forgetting factor stochastic gradient (KT-FFSG) algorithm based on the gradient search. The other is the key-term-based hierarchical forgetting factor stochastic gradient (KT-HFFSG) algorithm. Compared with the KT-FFSG algorithm, the KT-HFFSG algorithm gives more accurate estimates. The simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithms are effective.