基于小波除噪和神经网络理论的气固循环流化床颗粒浓度预测

提出了一种将混沌的相空间重构、小波包分析和神经网络相结合的新方法用于预测气-固循环流化床的颗粒浓度。首先利用小波包进行数据的消噪,然后用混沌方法重构相空间吸引子,用径向基神经网络拟合吸引子上的全局整体映射,构成混合预测模型。实验结果表明,将此混合模型用于预测气-固循环流化床的颗粒浓度,能达到较好的预测效果,预测精度比奇异值分解和傅里叶变换除噪高。     

平湖油气田储层及含油气预测

平湖油气田是东海第一个开发的复合型油气田 ,主要含油气层段为渐新统花港组油藏 (H2 -H8)和始新统平湖组气藏 (P1 -P1 1 ) ,首期开发区为F1、F2断块 ,二期开发区为B1、B2断块。在平湖油气田开发过程中 ,针对花港组油藏波阻抗与岩性相关性好 ,而平湖组中下部波阻抗与岩性相关性不好的这种地质和地球物理特点 ,应用国内外先进的技术和方法 ,尝试多种方法预测储层及含油气 ,取得了较好的预测成果。     

地震反演技术在桥口-白庙地区储层预测中的应用

桥口-白庙地区地质条件复杂,受构造位置和物源影响其沉积类型亦不相同,砂体分布和岩性变化大,应用地震反演技术,对储层进行预测,为油气分布和控制因素的研究奠定了基础。地震反演和储层预测采用了约束稀疏脉冲反演方法,把叠后的地震反射振幅数据变换为地层波阻抗数据,然后利用反演的波阻抗数据,估算出砂岩厚度和砂岩储层物性参数。根据该项技术,最终生成了各目的层的5类平面成果图,即地层厚度、平均波阻杭、预测砂岩厚度、预测砂岩百分比、预测砂岩平均孔隙度等值图。地震反演与储层预测结果表明,在井均匀分布的约束下,能较好地预测砂岩储集层的平面分布,圈定面积和砂岩发育区,反映出物源方向及可能的油气分布。     

低效气藏成因层次剖析

由于我国低效气藏的储量所占比例很大，故而有必要对其进行深入研究，形成适合于不同层面的研究方法和思路，以期达到指导勘探开发生产的目的。为此，将低效气藏剖析为四个层面（气藏开发特征层面、现有地质特征层面、历史地质成因层面、预测及改造层面），并用层次分析法对其进行了研究：第一层次是直接由生产来认识，第二层次通过分析、化验、监测来了解，第三层次通过地质过程和地质历史回溯来表述，第四层次依据现有地质理论，通过地质过程叠合，最终达到预测、改造、有效动用低效气藏的目的。研究结果认为，可以依据不同层次特征对低效气藏进行分类评价：第一层次从经济效益出发，依据投入产出比进行分类；第二层次着眼气藏现今地质特征，表征其地质特征，而储层分布、渗透性则为分类的主要依据；第三层次从气藏形成地质过程着手，分析低效气藏形成过程，沉积和成岩作用作为分类的关键因素；第四层次基于气藏地质特征，预测开发动态，改造气藏特征，促使气藏有效动用。     

套管井声波成像测井资料的采集与应用

过套管利用偶极子声波成像测量获得地层横波资料，在理论上讲是可行的。但此项目不仅国内测井公司未进行过现场作业，就连美国哈里伯顿公司也没有此项目的现场作业经验。新疆测井公司通过认真制订测井方案，克服了各种困难，首次顺利获得了优质的地层横渡资料，开创了测井技术史上在套管井中获得横波资料的先例。     

SARS流行预测分析

表面上突如其来的SARS本质上却有极规律的内在发展演化机制，遵从初始缓慢增长、加速、减速和稳定终止四个阶段总体道路，自然和社会生活领域众多事件演化都符合这一规律，因而可以运用广义的Logistic生长模型进行描述。基于先期流行的广东SARS感染病例数据，以及尚未结束的北京、全国2003年SARS流行统计数据，借助于最优化分析技术，运用广义的Logistic生长模型对该事件演化特征参量进行了辨识；在此基础上，又借助于广义生长模型的特例——Gompertz函数进行了演化过程的预测，并与其他生长模型结果进行了比较。研究表明，生长模型模拟结果均与实际数据有很好的一致性，可以用来预测事件的发生演化过程，此次SARS事件堪称生长模型的经典实例。     

油田开发规划优化决策系统研究

介绍了油田开发规划优化系统的原理与方法、系统结构与模块功能设计。在产油量最大、总成本最低、效益最优等不同优化目标下，实现了数据导入、系统配置、油田开发动态预测、规划优化、产量分配、最优控制等效益规划功能。该系统已应用于油田中长远开发规划，取得了较好效果。     

Analytical prediction of composite beams response in fire situations

In this paper an extension of the method of the Fourier series expansion to the fire analysis of composite beams is presented. In particular the extension concerns the introduction of the temperature dependent interaction of all the components: steel beams, concrete slab and steel connectors. These last are considered of finite stiffness, and a proper account is given to the combined effect of thermal degradation of the properties, and stress amplification caused by the differential thermal expansion across the interface.The proposed method compares very well with some experimental fire tests of simply supported and framed composite beams. Due to its relative simplicity and speed, it can be used for design purposes in evaluating the critical temperature in terms of critical deflection. Finally we recall that the method is capable of dealing with every type of fastening distribution, such as discontinuous or variable length.     

Measuring the errors of form of industrial surfaces: prediction and optimization

To acquire maximum information on the geometrical errors of industrially made surfaces at a minimum cost, a method for estimating conditional probabilities of a random signal (Bayesian prediction) is applied to three-dimensional metrology. First, a surface is interpolated between data acquired on a coordinate measuring machine (CMM). Then, for a given probability, limit surfaces are computed that bind a region of space containing the known data and the most probable interpolation of the missing data of the surface. These bounds can be treated as the surface; their points can be considered as if they were actual CMM data when fitting a tolerance zone or a datum feature to the data. For Bayesian prediction, the basic hypotheses on the signal are stationarity, ergodicity, and gaussian density. Deviations from these hypotheses and their consequences on the prediction are taken into account and corrections are proposed.     

LOW-CYCLE FATIGUE UNDER NON-PROPORTIONAL LOADING

A series of strain-controlled, low-cycle fatigue experiments have been conducted on 42CrMo steel under various loading paths including circular, square, cruciform, and rectangular paths. Present experiments have shown that there is additional hardening under non-proportional cyclic loading. Non-proportional cyclic additional hardening also results in a shorter life for multiaxial low cycle fatigue. A non-proportionality measure of strain path based on both a physical basis and macromechanical phenomena is proposed. The loading path effect on additional hardening is also described well. Low-cycle fatigue damage accumulation and the evolution process under non-proportional loading is analysed via the Continuum Damage Mechanics Model of Chaboche. A non-proportinality measure is introduced in the damage evolution equation and a modified Coffin-Manson type formula is derived. A novel fatigue life prediction approach based on the critical-plane concept of Brown and Miller is proposed.