天然气产业链下游市场风险评价模型探讨

随着我国天然气主干管网的逐步形成，天然气产业链下游市场正在进入快速成长阶段，建立风险预警系统的重要性开始显现，而风险评价模型是其基础工作之一。文章在天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价指标体系的基础上，综合运用层次分析法和灰色系统理论，建立了对天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价的模型，并以各区域市场的用气量占全国总用气量的比重为权重，建立起完整的市场风险评价模型，可为评价天然气产业链下游市场整体市场风险时参考。     

HSG冻胶调剖堵水剂室内评价

针对吉林油田低渗透、裂缝油藏注水开发后期注水窜流严重的特点,研制出新型冻胶调剖堵水剂HSG。对HSG成胶前溶胶体系的表观黏度影响因素进行了分析,分析认为在相同剪切速率下溶胶体系表观黏度随共聚物浓度、矿化度、碱含量的增加而增大,并表现出剪切稀释特性,黏温测试表明溶胶体系表观黏度随温度升高而下降;对HSG成胶后冻胶体系的强度进行了测定,确定其屈服应力值为3500 Pa,振荡剪切应力扫描确定了冻胶体系的线性黏弹性区域,频率扫描确定该冻胶为强冻胶体系;2组并联填砂管选择注入试验表明,HSG溶胶体系具有良好的选择注入能力,能达到优先进入高渗透层的目的;20 m超长填砂管封堵试验表明,HSG溶胶体系的注入压力梯度为0.82 MPa/m,具有易于注入的特点,HSG成胶后的封堵强度为17.54 MPa/m,具有较强的封堵能力。该研究为HSG冻胶调剖堵水剂现场应用提供了借鉴。     

基于改进模糊综合评价法的水利工程社会评价研究

通过对水利工程社会评价及模糊综合评价法的介绍,讨论了模糊层次分析法中的一致性检验问题,并采用改进的模糊综合评价法对江垭水利枢纽工程进行社会评价,得到综合评价结果。     

设计阶段的工程造价控制管理

从设计招标和方案竞选、设计方案的优化、标准化设计、限额设计、技术培训等方面分析了设计阶段造价控制和管理的特点，指出只有把控制造价的关键阶段确立在设计阶段，才能实现工期短、节约成本、效益显著的目标。     

智能动态网络资源分配系统

通过对解决GSM移动通信网络热点区域话务拥塞问题的研究，提出了利用可控功分器实现智能动态网络资源的分配，解决不同种类的话务拥塞问题，并着重讨论了该系统目前的成功运用及前景。     

On the effects of the packet size distribution on the packet loss process

Real-time multimedia applications have to use forward error correction (FEC) anderror concealment techniques to cope with losses in today’s best-effort Internet. The efficiency of these solutions is known however to depend on the correlation between losses in the media stream. In this paper we investigate how the packet size distribution affects the packet loss process, that is, the distribution of the number of lost packets in a block, the related FEC performance and the average loss run length. We present mathematical models for the loss process of the MMPP+M/D/1/K and the MMPP+M/M/1/K queues; we validate the models via simulations, and compare the results to simulation results with an MPEG-4 coded video trace. We conclude that the deterministic packet size distribution (PSD) not only results in lower stationary loss probability than the exponential one, but also gives a less correlated loss process, both at a particular average link load and at a particular stationary loss probability as seen by the media stream.Our results show that for applications that can only measure the packet loss probability, the effects of the PSD on FEC performance are higher in access networks, where a single multimedia stream might affect the multiplexing behavior. Our results show that the effects of the PSD on FEC performance are higher in access networks, where a single multimedia stream might affect the multiplexing behavior and thus can improve the queuing performance by decreasing the variance of its PSD.     

光电对抗仿真试验系统综述

论述了研制光电对抗仿真试验系统建设的目的和意义,光电武器系统的现状和发展趋势,介绍了光电对抗仿真试验系统的一般组成,给出了光电武器系统的常规试验内容和试验流程,并论述了可能采用的试验方法。     

An object replication algorithm for real-time distributed databases

A real-time distributed database system (RTDDBS) must maintain the consistency constraints of objects and must also guarantee the time constraints imposed by each request arriving at the system. Such a time constraint of a request is usually defined as a deadline period, which means that the request must be serviced on or before its time constraint. Servicing these requests may incur I/O costs, control-message transferring costs or data-message transferring costs. As a result, in our work, we first present a mathematical model that considers all these costs. Using this cost model, our objective is to service all the requests on or before their respective deadline periods and minimize the total servicing cost. To this end, from theoretical standpoint, we design a dynamic object replication algorithm, referred to as Real-time distributed dynamic Window Mechanism (RDDWM), that adapts to the random patterns of read-write requests. Using competitive analysis, from practical perspective, we study the performance of RDDWM algorithm under two different extreme conditions, i.e., when the deadline period of each request is sufficiently long and when the deadline period of each request is very short. Several illustrative examples are provided for the ease of understanding. Recommended by: Ashfaq Khokhar     

DEA评价方法在超稠油生产经营中的应用探讨

超稠油的生产工艺非常复杂，影响油井效益的因素相对较多，因此对油井的评价就要评价各类有限资源投入的利用效果，查明积极因素和消极因素及其对经济指标的影响程度，促进经营管理的改善，寻求有效利用有限人力、物力、财力等资源的途径，实现资源的优化配置。本文通过使用DEA模型可对单井效益进行评价，对单井效益进行排队，对规模效益进行分类，对生产各投入因素进行投影分析，研究弱DEA、非DEA有效的原因，寻求对油井优化成本、提高效益的改进方案。     

天然水资源价值评估的能值方法及应用

本文从水资源的自然属性出发，提出了采用能值(Emergy)理论与方法研究天然水资源价值的新思路。论述了环境与自然资源定价的能值价值理论；根据水文循环与天然水资源基本特性，给出了水资源生成与能量转换的概念模型；从水的化学能角度提出了天然水资源价值的能值评估方法，包括理论方法与简化方法；并以我国南方某沿海县域为例进行了实际应用。实例表明，基于能值价值理论的天然水资源价值定量评估方法具有可行性。