Quantitative risk assessment using a Japanese hydrogen refueling station model

Although hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are becoming widespread across Japan and are essential for the operation of fuel cell vehicles, they present potential hazards. A large number of accidents such as explosions or fires have been reported, rendering it necessary to conduct a number of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments for HRSs. Current safety codes and technical standards related to Japanese HRSs have been established based on the results of a qualitative risk assessment and quantitative effectiveness validation of safety measures over ten years ago. In the last decade, there has been much development in the technologies of the components or facilities used in domestic HRSs and much operational experience as well as knowledge to use hydrogen in HRSs safely have been gained through years of commercial operation. The purpose of the present study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the latest HRS model representing Japanese HRSs with the most current information and to identify the most significant scenarios that pose the greatest risks to the physical surroundings in the HRS model. The results of the QRA show that the risk contours of 10^?3 and 10^?4 per year were confined within the HRS boundaries, whereas the risk contours of 10^?5 and 10^?6 per year are still present outside the HRS. Comparing the breakdown of the individual risks (IRs) at the risk ranking points, we conclude that the risk of jet fire demonstrates the highest contribution to the risks at all of the risk ranking points and outside the station. To reduce these risks and confine the risk contour of 10^?6 per year within the HRS boundaries, it is necessary to consider risk mitigation measures for jet fires.     

Recent activities in the field of Nuclear Operational Management and Nuclear Safety Engineering

Recent activities in the field of Nuclear Operational Management and Nuclear Safety Engineering, the studies related to risk analysis methodology, design, and operational management, physical phenomena, and emergency preparedness and nuclear security, have been progressed. Especially, ‘risk analysis methodology’ and ‘design and operational management’ are the main categories of the field, in which more than half of published articles on Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology are related to these categories.     

Skeletal Muscle Health and Cognitive Function: A Narrative Review

Sarcopenia is the loss of skeletal muscle mass and function with advancing age. It involves both complex genetic and modifiable risk factors, such as lack of exercise, malnutrition and reduced neurological drive. Cognitive decline refers to diminished or impaired mental and/or intellectual functioning. Contracting skeletal muscle is a major source of neurotrophic factors, including brain-derived neurotrophic factor, which regulate synapses in the brain. Furthermore, skeletal muscle activity has important immune and redox effects that modify brain function and reduce muscle catabolism. The identification of common risk factors and underlying mechanisms for sarcopenia and cognition may allow the development of targeted interventions that slow or reverse sarcopenia and also certain forms of cognitive decline. However, the links between cognition and skeletal muscle have not been elucidated fully. This review provides a critical appraisal of the literature on the relationship between skeletal muscle health and cognition. The literature suggests that sarcopenia and cognitive decline share pathophysiological pathways. Ageing plays a role in both skeletal muscle deterioration and cognitive decline. Furthermore, lifestyle risk factors, such as physical inactivity, poor diet and smoking, are common to both disorders, so their potential role in the muscle–brain relationship warrants investigation.     

Backtesting portfolio value-at-risk with estimated portfolio weights

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) with estimation risk in an intrinsically multi-variate framework. It particularly takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating portfolio weights and that from estimating the multi-variate dynamic model make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. It proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to implement valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. In particular, we apply our theory to the efficient mean-variance-skewness portfolio for a multi-variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with multi-variate general hyperbolic distributed innovations. Some Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate the merits of our method.     

综采放顶煤工作面高位巷抽采关键技术研究

为了保证九里山矿1508工作面采空区瓦斯治理效果，通过现场数据测定、实验考察和理论分析，研究了推进度、抽采负压、抽采管网等高位巷抽采关键参数。研究结果表明，工作面煤层越厚、推进度越快，瓦斯涌出量越大；孔抽期间理想抽采负压为25～30 kPa、巷抽期间理想抽采负压为5～10 kPa，高位巷并联支路及管路阻力会影响高位巷的抽采效果。     

黄浦江下游吴淞口站低潮位重现期研究

黄浦江为感潮河流,低潮位重现期的确定对黄浦江航道的设计具有重要意义。为了准确估计黄浦江低潮位的重现期,以黄浦江下游吴淞口站年最低潮位序列为例,在对样本进行三性审查的基础上,分别采用传统的数理统计方法和时变矩方法进行水文频率分析。结果表明:吴淞口站年最低潮位序列在1996年发生了变异;还现修正后的序列服从位置参数线性时变的GEV模型,低潮位存在缓慢的上升趋势;一致性条件下百年一遇低潮位约为0.261 m,在非一致性条件下其重现期增大为150 a。非一致性条件下的重现期增大说明黄浦江现有的航道设计标准偏安全,航道通航保证率提高。     

净水水处理剂中有害杂质在水中残留物分析与风险评估

与欧盟和美国标准相比,我国硫酸铝和硫酸铵标准缺少对水处理剂中有害杂质镍、锑、硒、银、吡啶、氰化物、六价铬的检测;次氯酸钠缺少对水处理剂中有害杂质汞、铬、镉、铁、镍、锑、硒、银、六价铬的检测。结合某市2019年上半年13个水厂出厂水和原水的检测数据,剔除了5项始终低于检出限的有害杂质指标,以及2项出厂水浓度低于原水浓度的有害杂质指标。建议该市硫酸铝和硫酸铵的检测项目可以在原有国标基础上增加锑、硒;次氯酸钠可以增加汞、锑、硒。     

Automated classification of simulated wind field patterns from multiphysics ensemble forecasts

In this study, we have proposed an automated classification approach to identify meaningful patterns in wind field data. Utilizing an extensive simulated wind database, we have demonstrated that the proposed approach can identify low‐level jets, near‐uniform profiles, and other patterns in a reliable manner. We have studied the dependence of these wind profile patterns on locations (eg, offshore vs onshore), seasons, and diurnal cycles. Furthermore, we have found that the probability distributions of some of the patterns depend on the underlying planetary boundary layer schemes in a significant way. The future potential of the proposed approach in wind resource assessment and, more generally, in mesoscale model parameterization improvement is touched upon in this paper.     

腹腔手术后重症患者心肌损伤的危险因素

目的探讨腹腔手术后重症患者心肌损伤的发生情况及可能的危险因素。方法回顾性分析北京大学人民医院2017年1月至2019年1月腹腔手术后重症患者的一般临床资料及心肌损伤情况,收集并观察基础病史、术中(手术时间、是否急诊手术、术中出血>800 ml和术中低血压等)及术后指标(改良氧合指数、血乳酸、急性肾损伤和术后24 h内使用升压药情况等)。根据术后是否发生心肌损伤,将患者分为心肌损伤组和非心肌损伤组,采用Logistic回归分析腹腔手术后重症患者心肌损伤的危险因素。结果在纳入的803例腹腔手术后重症患者中,心肌损伤发生率为17. 2%(138/803),而急性心肌梗死发生率仅为0. 9%(7/803)。单因素分析显示,慢性肾功能不全病史、手术时间、急诊手术、术中低血压、术后24 h内使用升压药、高APACHEⅡ评分及术后即刻急性肾损伤与术后重症患者心肌损伤相关(P<0. 05)。多因素回归分析显示,急诊手术(OR=3. 14,95%CI:1. 76～5. 60,P<0. 001)、术后24 h内使用升压药(OR=2. 26,95%CI:1. 23～4. 15,P=0. 008)、APACHEⅡ评分(OR=1. 05,95%CI:1. 01～1. 09,P=0. 008)和术后急性肾损伤(OR=3. 18,95%CI:1. 78～5. 69,P <0. 001)与腹腔手术后重症患者发生心肌损伤独立相关。结论重症患者腹腔手术后心肌损伤发生率高,急诊手术、术后24 h内使用升压药、高APACHEⅡ评分和术后急性肾损伤是导致腹腔手术后重症患者发生心肌损伤的独立危险因素。     

能源互联网技术成熟度等级评估

能源互联网是实现未来可持续发展的重要建设内容之一。构建能源互联网需要众多关键技术的支撑,而技术处于不断地进化过程中,了解技术发展的现实水平,把握技术的未来需求,可以指导正确的发展路线和科学的战略决策的制定。本文旨在评估能源互联网关键技术成熟度。基于文献计量方法评估理念建立具有系统性和普适性的综合评估指标体系,并引入数据分析方法和变异系数法构建技术成熟度综合评估方法,为能源互联网的建设提供科学的指导。对能源互联网的云大物移创新应用关键技术进行算例分析,结果表明该方法能准确地判断技术的成熟度,定位技术性能。