Models for solar radiation prediction based on different measurement sites

The modeling of solar radiation for forecasting its availability is a key tool for managing photovoltaic (PV) plants and, hence, is of primary importance for energy production in a smart grid scenario. However, the variability of the weather phenomena is an unavoidable obstacle in the prediction of the energy produced by the solar radiation conversion. The use of the data collected in the past can be useful to capture the daily and seasonal variability, while measurement of the recent past can be exploited to provide a short term prediction. It is well known that a good measurement of the solar radiation requires not only a high class radiometer, but also a correct management of the instrument. In order to reduce the cost related to the management of the monitoring apparatus, a solution could be to evaluate the PV plant performance using data collected by public weather station installed near the plant. In this paper, two experiments are conducted. In the first, the plausibility of the short term prediction of the solar radiation, based on data collected in the near past on the same site is investigated. In the second experiment, the same prediction is operated using data collected by a public weather station located at ten kilometers from the solar plant. Several prediction techniques belonging from both computational intelligence and statistical fields have been challenged in this task. In particular, Support Vector Machine for Regression, Extreme Learning Machine and Autoregressive models have been used and compared with the persistence and the k-NN predictors. The prediction accuracy achieved in the two experimental conditions are then compared and the results are discussed.     

03Cr18NiMoN节镍双相不锈钢的热变形行为及热加工图

关键词：双相不锈钢； 流变曲线； 本构方程； 热加工图     

Multicellular Tumor Spheroids (MCTS) as a 3D In Vitro Evaluation Tool of Nanoparticles

Multicellular tumor spheroid models (MCTS) are often coined as 3D in vitro models that can mimic the microenvironment of tissues. MCTS have gained increasing interest in the nano‐biotechnology field as they can provide easily accessible information on the performance of nanoparticles without using animal models. Considering that many countries have put restrictions on animals testing, which will only tighten in the future as seen by the recent developments in the Netherlands, 3D models will become an even more valuable tool. Here, an overview on MCTS is provided, focusing on their use in cancer research as most nanoparticles are tested in MCTS for treatment of primary tumors. Thereafter, various types of nanoparticles—from self‐assembled block copolymers to inorganic nanoparticles, are discussed. A range of physicochemical parameters including the size, shape, surface chemistry, ligands attachment, stability, and stiffness are found to influence nanoparticles in MCTS. Some of these studies are complemented by animal studies confirming that lessons from MCTS can in part predict the behaviour in vivo. In summary, MCTS are suitable models to gain additional information on nanoparticles. While not being able to replace in vivo studies, they can bridge the gap between traditional 2D in vitro studies and in vivo models.     

基于云模型的自适应网络安全通信系统

针对传统安全通信系统采用静态安全策略，从而缺乏可生存性与高效性的问题，提出了一种由系统安全威胁和系统性能双重驱动的白适应网络安全通信模型。使用冗余和多样性技术，该模型能够根据系统当前安全态势以及系统性能状态动态地针对每个会话调整安全策略，具有很强的可生存性和高效性。     

Model Selection for Unsupervised Learning of Visual Context

This study addresses the problem of choosing the most suitable probabilistic model selection criterion for unsupervised learning of visual context of a dynamic scene using mixture models. A rectified Bayesian Information Criterion (BICr) and a Completed Likelihood Akaike’s Information Criterion (CL-AIC) are formulated to estimate the optimal model order (complexity) for a given visual scene. Both criteria are designed to overcome poor model selection by existing popular criteria when the data sample size varies from small to large and the true mixture distribution kernel functions differ from the assumed ones. Extensive experiments on learning visual context for dynamic scene modelling are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of BICr and CL-AIC, compared to that of existing popular model selection criteria including BIC, AIC and Integrated Completed Likelihood (ICL). Our study suggests that for learning visual context using a mixture model, BICr is the most appropriate criterion given sparse data, while CL-AIC should be chosen given moderate or large data sample sizes.     

Robust nonlinear feedback–feedforward control of a coupled kinetic Monte Carlo–finite difference simulation

Robust nonlinear feedforward–feedback controllers are designed for a multiscale system that dynamically couples kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) and finite difference (FD) simulation codes. The coupled codes simulate the copper electrodeposition process for manufacturing on-chip copper interconnects in electronic devices. The control objective is to regulate the current density subject to the condition that the steady-state fluctuation of the overpotential remains bounded within ±0.01 V. The controller designs incorporate a low-order stochastic model that captures the input–output behavior of the coupled KMC–FD code. The controllers achieve the objectives and the closed-loop responses implemented on the low-order model and the coupled KMC–FD code match well within stochastic variations. The nonlinear feedforward control reduces the rise time of the controller response while the feedback control ensures robustness in the presence of model uncertainty.     

Quantitative pharmacophore models with inductive logic programming

Three-dimensional models, or pharmacophores, describing Euclidean constraints on the location on small molecules of functional groups (like hydrophobic groups, hydrogen acceptors and donors, etc.), are often used in drug design to describe the medicinal activity of potential drugs (or ‘ligands’). This medicinal activity is produced by interaction of the functional groups on the ligand with a binding site on a target protein. In identifying structure-activity relations of this kind there are three principal issues: (1) It is often difficult to “align” the ligands in order to identify common structural properties that may be responsible for activity; (2) Ligands in solution can adopt different shapes (or `conformations’) arising from torsional rotations about bonds. The 3-D molecular substructure is typically sought on one or more low-energy conformers; and (3) Pharmacophore models must, ideally, predict medicinal activity on some quantitative scale. It has been shown that the logical representation adopted by Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) naturally resolves many of the difficulties associated with the alignment and multi-conformation issues. However, the predictions of models constructed by ILP have hitherto only been nominal, predicting medicinal activity to be present or absent. In this paper, we investigate the construction of two kinds of quantitative pharmacophoric models with ILP: (a) Models that predict the probability that a ligand is “active”; and (b) Models that predict the actual medicinal activity of a ligand. Quantitative predictions are obtained by the utilising the following statistical procedures as background knowledge: logistic regression and naive Bayes, for probability prediction; linear and kernel regression, for activity prediction. The multi-conformation issue and, more generally, the relational representation used by ILP results in some special difficulties in the use of any statistical procedure. We present the principal issues and some solutions. Specifically, using data on the inhibition of the protease Thermolysin, we demonstrate that it is possible for an ILP program to construct good quantitative structure-activity models. We also comment on the relationship of this work to other recent developments in statistical relational learning. Editors: Tamás Horváth and Akihiro Yamamoto     

The Influence and Interpretation of Surface Parameters for Wetting Transitions in Ternary Mixtures

Starting from a microscopic Hamiltonian defined on a semi-infinite cubic lattice, and employing a mean-field approximation, the surface parameters relevant for wetting in confined ternary mixtures are derived. These are found in terms of the microscopic coupling constants, and yield a physical interpretation of their origins. In comparison with the standard expression for the surface free-energy density, several new terms arising from the derivation are identified. The influence of the surface parameters on a predicted unbinding transition in a mixture of oil, water, and amphiphile demonstrate that existing results are robust to the addition of the extra surface terms.     

River Bifurcation Analysis by Physical and Numerical Modeling

In the framework of a river regulation design of the Po River Delta (Northern Italy), a study on a large physical model of the bifurcation Po di Goro-Po di Venezia was conducted with the main objective of determining the discharge subdivision rate at the river node, in order to assess the inflow conditions in the Po di Goro River for flood risk analysis. In this context, a two-dimensional depth averaged numerical model was tested against measured values, with reference to the prototype. In this paper a comprehensive analysis and discussion of the results is reported in order to highlight the applicability of numerical models in comparison with physical ones in river engineering applications.