Application of system dynamics in analyzing the carrying capacity of water resources in Yiwu City,China

A risk assessment model for water shortage is constructed using a risk analysis method based on the information diffusion theory. The application of this model is demonstrated in the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang Province, China. Based on the analytical results from a small sample, this study indicates that the present model is more stable and effective than the traditional model. Risk assessment results are used to analyze the carrying capacity of water resources from an ecological angle. For this study, the carrying capacity of water resources is defined as the maximum volume of water suitable for supporting human activity in certain stages of social development that can be borne by water resources under favorable ecological conditions. Further study on Yiwu is also performed, with results indicating that water shortages in this city are not related to types of water source, but can be classified in terms of water quality and conservation. To verify the results of theoretical investigation in this paper, the authors simulate changes in the carrying capacity of water resources under the conditions of future water management policies. This simulation uses the system dynamics (SD) model, based on the historical data collected by the city over the past 20 years and governmental plans to raise inhabitants’ living standards between the present and 2020. The paper simultaneously indicates that both singularly pursuing fast economic development at the expense of the environment and promoting environmental protection via reduced economic development are undesirable for Yiwu. Simultaneously giving consideration to both the economic development and environmental protection is likely to produce better overall results. However, if the present water supply level is maintained but does not increase in the near future, Yiwu's water supply will be unable to satisfy requirements even under this scheme. In this case, the carrying capacity of water resources in the region can only be effectively improved by promoting more efficient use of water and water conservation schemes, as well as strengthening long-term investment in environmental protection.     

Cyclic voltammetry on electrode surfaces covered with porous layers: An analysis of electron transfer kinetics at single-walled carbon nanotube modified electrodes

Cyclic voltammetry is recorded of the oxidation of ferrocyanide on a glassy carbon electrode modified with multiple layers of single-walled carbon nanotubes. The current response is interpreted in terms of semi-infinite planar diffusion towards the macro-electrode surface and in terms of oxidation of the electroactive species trapped in pockets in between the nanotubes. A thin layer model is used to illustrate the effects of diffusion within a porous layer. It is found that a semi-infinite planar diffusion model alone is not appropriate for interpreting the kinetics of the electron transfer at this electrode surface. In particular, caution should be exercised in respect of comparing voltammetric peak-to-peak potential separations between naked electrodes and nanotube-modified electrodes for the inference of electrocatalysis via electron transfer via the nanotubes.     

Testing Forecast Accuracy of Foreign Exchange Rates: Predictions from Feed Forward and Various Recurrent Neural Network Architectures

In this research, we work with data of futures contracts on foreign exchange rates for British pound (BP), Canadian dollar (CD), and Japanese yen (JY) that are traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) against US dollars. We model relationships between exchange rates in these currencies using linear models, feed forward artificial neural networks (ANN), and three versions of recurrent neural networks (RNN1, RNN2 and RNN3) for predicting exchange rates in these currencies against the US dollar. Our results on forecast evaluations based on AGS test the tests of forecast equivalence between any two competing models among the entire models employed for each of the series show that ANN and the three versions of RNN models offer superior forecasts for predicting BP, CD and JY exchange rates although the forecast evaluations based on MGN test are in sharp contrast. On the other hand forecast based on SIGN test shows that ANN and all the versions of RNN models offer superior forecasts for BP and CD in exception of JY exchange rates. The results for forecast evaluation for all the models for each of the series based on summary measures of forecast evaluations show that RNN3 model appears to offer the most accurate predictions of BP and RNN1 for JP exchange rates. However, none of the RNN models appear to be statistically superior to the benchmark (i.e., linear model) for predicting CD exchange rates.      

OPNET网络仿真技术及其应用

网络仿真是一种新的网络设计和优化技术,它能够为网络的规划设计提供可靠的定量依据,也能够验证实际方案或比较多个不同的设计方案.介绍了OPNET网络仿真软件,并对其主要特性、建模机制以及仿真步骤进行了深入的阐述.最后,给出了OPNET软件在预测网络性能方面的一个应用实例.实验结果表明,OPNET网络仿真软件能够准确地分析复杂网络的性能和行为.     

指令优化设计与指令缓存结构相互关系的研究

传统的指令优化方法通常不考虑调整指令高速缓存的硬件体系结构,只能得到局部优化结果.本文以实验的方法研究了指令优化设计和指令缓存配置之间的关系,通过实现程序指令优化并在不同指令缓存配置的平台上运行优化前后的程序,对比缓存缺失率,为进一步提高指令缓存性能提供了重要参考.实验结果表明指令缓存配置对指令优化的性能有极大的影响,在系统设计阶段同时考虑指令优化和指令缓存结构将能大幅度地改进指令缓存的性能.     

IXP2400的高速二层交换设备性能测试技术

针对网络互连设备性能飞速发展的现状,结合高速网络交换设备的性能评估需求,提出了利用基于网络处理器构建的网络测试系统对高速二层网络交换设备的四个重要性能指标进行测试的方法.文中介绍基于IXP2400网络测试系统的研究价值及选型原则;概述其设计与实现;讨论吞吐量、丢帧率、延迟、背对背四个性能指标的定义、公式及算法,并简要阐述了其测试目的及重要性;既而通过与官方测试结果进行分析对比,验证了方法及该测试系统的可用性、正确性.在文章最后展望本文提出的基于IXP2400的网络测试系统及方法的发展前景.     

一种基于模糊提取的虹膜鉴别方案

模糊提取从生物特征输入中以容错的方式可靠地提取出均匀分布的随机密钥,当输入发生变化且变化很小时,该密钥可以保持不变,研究了当汉明距离作为生物特征匹配的度量标准时,结合纠错编码学与传统密码学实现模糊提取的虹膜鉴别方法,分析了虹膜特征编码之间的差异对正确鉴别性能的影响,设计了重复码和Reed-Solomon码的两层级联纠错编码方案,并对128只虹膜的各3个样本进行了模拟实验,所给方案使用户虹膜特征模板的安全性和隐私性得到了有效保护,并能够支持用户虹膜的注册更新,此外,实验表明该方案同时具有较理想的识别性能.     

基于关键词相关度的Deep Web爬虫爬行策略

Deep Web蕴藏丰富的、高质量的信息资源,为了获取某Deep Web站点的页面,用户不得不键入一系列的关键词集。由于没有直接指向Deep Web页面的静态链接,目前大多数搜索引擎不能发现这些页面。该文提出的Deep Web爬虫爬行策略,可以有效地下载Deep Web页面。由于该页面只提供一个查询接口,因此Deep Web爬虫设计面对的主要挑战是怎样选择最佳的查询关键词产生有意义的查询。实验证明文中提出的一种基于不同关键词相关度权重的选择方法是有效的。     

一种基于内容的Web服务器集群调度算法

基于内容的Web服务器集群调度算法具有很多优点.在分析已有方法基础上,提出一种部分复制的基于内容调度算法PRLARD(partially replicated locality-aware request distribution).理论分析和仿真结果表明,该算法具有良好的负载均衡能力和高的CACHE命中率.     

Lower estimation of approximation rate for neural networks

Let SFd and Πψ,n,d = { nj=1bjψ(ωj·x+θj) :bj,θj∈R,ωj∈Rd} be the set of periodic and Lebesgue’s square-integrable functions and the set of feedforward neural network (FNN) functions, respectively. Denote by dist (SF d, Πψ,n,d) the deviation of the set SF d from the set Πψ,n,d. A main purpose of this paper is to estimate the deviation. In particular, based on the Fourier transforms and the theory of approximation, a lower estimation for dist (SFd, Πψ,n,d) is proved. That is, dist(SF d, Πψ,n,d) (nlogC2n)1/2 . T...