A binomial approximation of lot yield under Markov modulated Bernoulli item yield

The existing literature that models item-by-item production yield as a Bernoulli process assumes that the intraperiod likelihood of producing an acceptable item is stationary. We investigate the stochastic process that results from relaxing this assumption to account for system deterioration during each production run. More specifically, we consider a Bernoulli yield model with a non-stationary parameter that depends on the deterioration level of the system, which evolves according to a discrete-time Markov chain. For tractability reasons, we construct a simple binomial approximation of the non-stationary process, and compare the two yield distributions both analytically and numerically. Our results suggest that the approximation performs well, even when the deterioration occurs relatively fast, which serves to validate existing (and future) decision models that impose the stationarity assumption.     

全低变催化剂的失活原因及对策

针对全低变催化剂的失活情况进行分析，并提出解决办法。     

Stemming the TIDE: A correction of Fortner (1999) and a clarification of Larson and Hoyt (2007).

In this article, the author corrects an error in his 1999 dissertation (see record 2000-95004-391), which was summarized in detail shortly after its approval and was intensely examined more recently by D. G. Larson and W. T. Hoyt (see record #200711559-003). An error in the text of the dissertation transposed the variables of the denominator of the treatment-induced deterioration statistic (TIDE). The error was limited to the text of the document, and all calculations and results reported in the dissertation are correct. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

重复剪切作用下节理强度和形貌特征劣化规律

为了分析重复剪切作用下节理面剪切力学特性及微观形貌特征劣化规律,制备了单节理砂岩试样,考虑4种法向应力分别进行了6次重复剪切试验。研究结果发现:(1)在重复剪切作用下,节理面剪应力–剪切变形曲线变化特征明显,经过2~3次剪切,不再出现明显峰值,剪切硬化现象明显,残余抗剪强度逐渐趋于稳定;(2)随着重复剪切次数增加,节理面的抗剪强度劣化趋势明显,呈先陡后缓的劣化趋势,前2次剪切的劣化幅度占总劣化值的65%以上,而且法向应力越大,抗剪强度劣化幅度和劣化速度越大;(3)在重复剪切作用下,节理面上相互咬合的微凸起和凹陷部分发生切齿、磨损和填充,节理面的凹凸起伏程度逐渐减小,使得其形貌特征参数及粗糙度系数逐渐降低,进而导致其剪切力学特性逐渐劣化;(4)建立了重复剪切作用下节理面粗糙度系数劣化方程,结合N.Barton提出的结构面抗剪强度经验公式,建立了考虑重复剪切作用的节理面抗剪强度计算公式,结果表明计算值与试验值吻合的较好。     

考虑参数时空演化规律的黄土边坡极限平衡分析法研究

考虑黄土特殊力学性质的边坡稳定性分析方法研究对于保障国家"西部大开发"战略和"一带一路"倡议的实施具有重要的意义。利用渗流—软化—稳定性分析顺序耦合的研究思路,对地下水位上升条件下的黄土边坡稳定性进行分析。首先借助非饱和非稳定渗流分析理论进行地下水位上升条件下黄土边坡的渗流分析;其次基于渗流分析的计算成果借助水致结构性劣化方程动态更新土体强度参数的空间分布;基于总重度、黏聚力、内摩擦角和孔隙水压力的时空分布规律,采用面力法提出了考虑参数时空演化规律的黄土边坡极限平衡分析法。最后以地下水位上升条件下白鹿塬边某黄土边坡为例,通过考虑参数时空演化规律的黄土边坡稳定性Spencer法和M-P法计算成果之间的相互对比分析,同时将这些成果与现场勘察迹象进行对比,从而说明考虑参数时空演化规律的黄土边坡极限平衡分析法的合理性和可靠性。     

饱水砂岩力学性质软化试验研究

地下硐室围岩在富水条件下强度弱化,对硐室开挖与营运造成威胁。为探究围岩在饱水作用下的力学性质及细观结构特征变化,开展了不同围压和饱水条件下的三轴压缩及扫描电镜试验。研究表明:(1)随着饱水作用的增强,砂岩力学性能不断衰减,当饱水天数达到30 d时,衰减幅度趋于平缓;(2)砂岩饱水劣化效应显著,峰值应力、黏聚力、内摩擦角、弹性模量和变形模量的劣化度累积规律较相似,饱水天数15 d以前累积较快,15 d以后累积速率放缓;(3)砂岩断口多表现为贝纹性状,以韧性破坏为主,围压对断口微裂纹发育起抑制作用,饱水作用促进微裂纹发育。研究成果为饱水作用下岩石力学性能劣化规律研究提供一定参考。     

江西白垩系泥质粉砂岩崩解试验研究

对南昌地区泥质粉砂岩典型出露地段开展现场调研并取样测试其基本物理力学性质,同时进行了静态崩解试验和岩石的耐崩解试验,从能量耗散原理的角度分析了泥质粉砂岩静态崩解过程中吸收的能量向表面能转化的规律。试验结果表明:水和温度—岩的相互作用是加快泥质粉砂岩风化的主要外部营力;泥质粉砂岩的静态崩解由碎块状过渡到粒渣状、泥糊状,可按崩解物形态划分为剧烈崩解、细微崩解和崩解稳定三个阶段,崩解过程中其表面能累计增加量随崩解次数增加而增加,而单次表面能增量趋于减小;耐崩解试验中,泥质粉砂岩耐崩解性指数随循环次数的增大呈负指数关系递减。试验结果对于工程实践中如何抑制红层软岩崩解并保持其完整承载能力、或对其预崩解处理促进其快速崩解达到稳定的颗粒级配状态具有一定的参考价值。     

长周期地震动下高层钢管混凝土框架侧移性倒塌性能

开发了新的高精度钢与钢管混凝土(concrete-filled steel tube,CFST)的损伤与性能退化模型,研究了钢管混凝土柱在超高轴压下的抗震性能及其退化规律,基于该退化本构模型开发了纤维有限元仿真程序。基于长周期地震波峰值速度,分析了高层钢管混凝土框架在长周期地震作用下的倒塌行为。通过建立了高层CFST框架倒塌模型,考虑长周期地震动特性、退化效应和P-Δ效应对侧移性倒塌的影响,发现了残余变形集中的倾覆性倒塌机理。     

Bridge condition modelling and prediction using dynamic Bayesian belief networks

The development of a condition-based deterioration modelling methodology at bridge group level using Bayesian belief network (BBN) is presented in this paper. BBN is an efficient tool to handle complex interdependencies within elements of engineering systems, by means of conditional probabilities specified on a fixed model structure. The advantages and limitations of the BBN for such applications are reviewed by analysing a sample group of masonry bridges on the UK railway infrastructure network. The proposed methodology is then extended to develop a time dependent deterioration model using a dynamic Bayesian network. The condition of elements within the selected sample of bridges and a set of conditional probabilities for static and time dependent variables, based on inspection experience, are used as input to the models to yield, in probabilistic terms, overall condition-based deterioration profiles for bridge groups. Sensitivity towards various input parameters, as well as underlying assumptions, on the point-in-time performance and the deterioration profile of the group are investigated. Together with results from ‘what if’ scenarios, the potential of the developed methodology is demonstrated in relation to the specification of structural health monitoring requirements and the prioritisation of maintenance intervention activities.     

对混凝土结构劣化的探讨

文章对混凝土结构的劣化内外因作了分析,探讨了提高混凝土结构耐久性和延长住宅使用年限的措施,达到节约资源的目的,使住宅建筑可持续发展。