Predicting Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) populations and associated grain damage in smallholder farmers’ maize stores: A machine learning approach

Prostephanus truncatus is a notorious pest of stored-maize grain and its spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa has led to increased levels of grain storage losses. The current study developed models to predict the level of P. truncatus infestation and associated damage of maize grain in smallholder farmer stores. Data were gathered from grain storage trials conducted in Hwedza and Mbire districts of Zimbabwe and correlated with weather data for each site. Insect counts of P. truncatus and other common stored grain insect pests had a strong correlation with time of year with highest recorded numbers from January to May. Correlation analysis showed insect-generated grain dust from boring and feeding activity to be the best indicator of P. truncatus presence in stores (r = 0.70), while a moderate correlation (r = 0.48) was found between P. truncatus numbers and storage insect parasitic wasps, and grain damage levels significantly correlated with the presence of Tribolium castaneum (r = 0.60). Models were developed for predicting P. truncatus infestation and grain damage using parameter selection algorithms and decision-tree machine learning algorithms with 10-fold cross-validation. The P. truncatus population size prediction model performance was weak (r = 0.43) due to the complicated sampling and detection of the pest and eight-week long period between sampling events. The grain damage prediction model had a stronger correlation coefficient (r = 0.93) and is a good estimator for in situ stored grain insect damage. The models were developed for use under southern African climatic conditions and can be improved with more input data to create more precise models for building decision-support tools for smallholder maize-based production systems.     

改进Elman神经网络在短期热负荷预测中的应用

热电厂的短期热负荷预测在城市集中供暖中起着至关重要的作用,直接影响热电厂的经济效益和热能利用率。电厂的短期热负荷一般采用神经网络预测模型进行预测,而BP神经网络应用最为广泛。Elman神经网络算法在BP神经网络基础上加入了承接层,作为一步延时算子,实现记忆能力,使系统具备适应时变能力,增强系统全局稳定性。但Elman神经网络算法模型的构造依然需要大量样本的支撑,而且输入层的变量多,导致预测时间依然很长,收敛速度慢。该文在Elman神经网络预测前,进行了相关系数预处理和对样本中异常值的平均化预处理,通过数据归一化运算,使Elman神经网络输入层变量大幅减少。仿真实验表明,改进的Elman神经网络算法使预测模型快速寻优,减少预测时间的同时明显提高预测精度。     

Research on optimization design of PWR flow distribution device based on numerical simulation

ABSTRACT

In the lower chamber of pressurized water reactor (PWR), the flow distribution device is the core module to distribute coolant into the core. It has complex structure and numerous design parameters. Therefore, it has important theoretical and practical significance to optimize the device. The mesh independence verification, turbulence model selection, and data processing all can influence the numerical simulation results of the lower chamber, in order to research the influence, a numerical simulation method based on the original model of CNP1000 reactor lower chamber is proposed in this paper. In the method, an optimization design method of flow distribution device is established based on surrogate model. The main design variables and optimization objectives are determined based on the device’s structure and function characteristics. And then it respectively adopts Kriging algorithm and multi-objective genetic algorithm to establish a surrogate model of flow distribution device and optimize it globally. Finally, the optimal design variables are obtained. Compared with the device’s performance before optimization, the after optimization has smaller total pressure loss and more uniform flow. The effectiveness and practicability of proposed optimization design method can be verified.     

基于启发式BP算法的软件缺陷预测模型

针对软件缺陷预测时缺陷数据集中存在的类别分布不平衡问题，结合上采样算法SMOTE与Edited Nearest Neighbor (ENN) 数据清洗策略，提出了一种基于启发式BP神经网络算法的软件缺陷预测模型。模型中采用上采样算法SMOTE增加少数类样本以改善项目中的数据不平衡状况，并针对采样后数据噪声问题进行ENN数据清洗，结合基于启发式学习的模拟退火算法改进四层BP神经网络后建立分类预测模型，在AEEEM数据库上使用交叉验证对提出的方案进行性能评估，结果表明所提出的算法能够有效提高模型在预测类不平衡数据时的分类准确度。     

Mesoporous g-C3N4 decorated by Ni2P nanoparticles and CdS nanorods together for enhancing photocatalytic hydrogen evolution

Ni₂P nanoparticles and CdS nanorods were grew together on a mesoporous g-C₃N₄ through a facile in-situ solvothermal approach. Under visible light (λ > 400 nm), the as-prepared ternary PCN–CdS-5% Ni₂P composite displays a high H₂ evolution rate with 2905.86 μmol g^?1 h^?1, which is about 14, 18 and 279 times that of PCN–CdS, PCN–Ni₂P and PCN, respectively. The enhanced photocatalytic activity is mainly attributed to the improved separation efficiency of the photocarriers by the type II PCN–CdS heterojunction and the effective extraction of photogenerated electrons by Ni₂P. Meanwhile, Ni₂P acts as co-catalyst to provide the photocatalytic active site for hydrogen reduction. In addition, PCN–CdS-5% Ni₂P composite exerts good stability in 12-h cycles.     

压裂水平井产能预测方法研究进展

水平井压裂技术在低渗透及非常规储层中得到了广泛应用,压裂后水平井的产能预测关系到油田开发方案的制定,因此,国内外学者对压后渗流模型的建立和求解方法做出了不懈的努力。本文详细回顾了国内外学者所建压裂水平井产能预测模型及求解方法,指出了不同模型和求解方法的优缺点,并展望了压裂水平井产能模型的发展方向。     

基于梯度提升决策树的车轮轮缘厚度磨耗预测

轮对在列车走行过程中起着导向、承受以及传递载荷的作用，其踏面及轮缘磨耗对地铁列车运行安全性和钢轨的寿命都将产生重要影响。根据地铁列车车轮磨耗机理，分析车轮尺寸数据特点，针对轮缘厚度这一型面参数，基于梯度提升决策树算法构建轮缘厚度磨耗预测模型。在该模型的基础上，任意选取某轮对数据进行验证分析，结果表明：基于梯度提升决策树的轮对磨耗预测模型具有较好的预测精度，可预测出1~6个月的轮缘厚度变化趋势范围，预测时间范围较长，可为地铁维保部门对轮对的维修方式由状态修转为预防修提供指导性建议。     

Recent Advances in Conjugated Polymers for Visible-Light-Driven Water Splitting

With the ambition of solving the challenges of the shortage of fossil fuels and their associated environmental pollution, visible-light-driven splitting of water into hydrogen and oxygen using semiconductor photocatalysts has emerged as a promising technology to provide environmentally friendly energy vectors. Among the current library of developed photocatalysts, organic conjugated polymers present unique advantages of sufficient light-absorption efficiency, excellent stability, tunable electronic properties, and economic applicability. As a class of rising photocatalysts, organic conjugated polymers offer high flexibility in tuning the framework of the backbone and porosity to fulfill the requirements for photocatalytic applications. In the past decade, significant progress has been made in visible-light-driven water splitting employing organic conjugated polymers. The recent development of the structural design principles of organic conjugated polymers (including linear, crosslinked, and supramolecular self-assembled polymers) toward efficient photocatalytic hydrogen evolution, oxygen evolution, and overall water splitting is described, thus providing a comprehensive reference for the field. Finally, current challenges and perspectives are also discussed.