Backtesting portfolio value-at-risk with estimated portfolio weights

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) with estimation risk in an intrinsically multi-variate framework. It particularly takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating portfolio weights and that from estimating the multi-variate dynamic model make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. It proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to implement valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. In particular, we apply our theory to the efficient mean-variance-skewness portfolio for a multi-variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with multi-variate general hyperbolic distributed innovations. Some Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate the merits of our method.     

Lecture capture with real‐time rearrangement of visual elements: impact on student performance

The primary goal of this study is to create and test a lecture‐capture system that can rearrange visual elements while recording is still taking place, in such a way that student performance can be positively influenced. The system we have devised is capable of integrating and rearranging multimedia sources, including learning content, the instructor and students' images, into lecture videos that are embedded in a website for students to review after school. The present study employed a two‐group experimental design, with 153 participants (145 females and 8 males) making up an experimental group in which lecture courses were recorded using the new lecture‐capture system, and 149 participants (140 females and 9 males) forming a control group whose lectures were recorded by traditional means. All participants were in the freshman college and studying Introduction to Computer and Information Science in one of six classes, and were randomly assigned to one of the two groups. The participants' midterm examination and final examination scores were collected as indicators of their academic performance, with their mathematics entrance scores used as a pre‐test. The findings obtained from analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) suggest that appropriate rearrangement of visual elements in lecture videos can significantly impact students' learning performance.     

超高性能混凝土国内外研究与应用进展*

介绍了超高性能混凝土（UHPC）的制备原理和性能特点，对UHPC国内外研究和应用情况进行了综述，指出了我国UHPC研究和应用中存在的问题。结果表明：UHPC是一种具有优异的力学性能、耐久性能和环保效益的新型水泥基复合材料。国外在UHPC理论研究和应用研究方面都取得了大量成果，在实际工程中已经获得了广泛的应用；近年来我国在理论研究和应用方面也得到了快速发展；如何简化UHPC制备工艺、降低生产成本、补偿自收缩是今后的主要研究方向，完善相关规范标准以更好地指导UHPC现浇工程应用是目前首要解决的问题。随着环保和可持续发展理念的日益重视，UHPC这种低碳环保材料将有广阔的发展前景。     

化妆品功效评价(Ⅵ)——化妆品人体功效评价的实验设计

概述了化妆品人体功效评价实验设计的概念、基本要素和基本原则,介绍了常用实验设计类型和实验设计要点,提供了人体功效评价实验方案设计的思路,有助于提高研究者制定实验设计方案的水平。     

快速灵敏的LC-MS/MS法测定人血浆中阿莫西林并应用于两种制剂的一致性评价

目的: 建立快速灵敏的LC-MS/MS法测定人血浆中阿莫西林浓度，并用于两种阿莫西林胶囊的一致性评价。方法: 采用岛津公司LCMS-8060型LC-MS/MS仪，以MRM模式测定阿莫西林（m/z 366.00/114.00）的浓度，d4-阿莫西林作内标（m/z 370.10/114.05），离子源为ESI源。色谱柱选用Waters ACQUITY BEH C18（2.1×50 mm，1.7 μm），梯度洗脱。血浆样本加入内标，经甲醇沉淀蛋白后取上清液进样检测。结果: 所建方法经验证，其线性、准确度、精密度、最低定量限、提取回收率、特异性、基质效应、稳定性等各项指标均符合CFDA的指导原则及最新核查标准要求，并较文献报道中的方法有处理简单、灵敏度高、色谱峰形好的优点。结论: 所建方法快速、灵敏，适用于人血浆中阿莫西林浓度的检测。用于一致性评价的样本实测，两种制剂生物等效。     

An interpretative structural modeling based network reconfiguration strategy for power systems

The network reconfiguration is an important stage of restoring a power system after a complete blackout or a local outage. Reasonable planning of the network reconfiguration procedure is essential for rapidly restoring the power system concerned. An approach for evaluating the importance of a line is first proposed based on the line contraction concept. Then, the interpretative structural modeling (ISM) is employed to analyze the relationship among the factors having impacts on the network reconfiguration. The security and speediness of restoring generating units are considered with priority, and a method is next proposed to select the generating unit to be restored by maximizing the restoration benefit with both the generation capacity of the restored generating unit and the importance of the line in the restoration path considered. Both the start-up sequence of generating units and the related restoration paths are optimized together in the proposed method, and in this way the shortcomings of separately solving these two issues in the existing methods are avoided. Finally, the New England 10-unit 39-bus power system and the Guangdong power system in South China are employed to demonstrate the basic features of the proposed method.     

Investigation on the effect of EDM process variables and environments on acoustic emission signals

Abstract

The performance of electrical discharge machining (EDM) primarily depends on the spark quality generated in the inter-electrode gap (IEG) between the tool and workpiece. A method for obtaining accurate information about the spark gap is required to effectively monitor the EDM process. The rise and fall of thermal energy in the discharge zone at a rapid rate during the dielectric breakdown produces high-pressure shock waves. This work explores the suitability of using acoustic emission (AE) generated from these shock waves and the elastic AE waves released on the workpiece due to the induced stress to monitor the performance and spark gap in EDM. The information content of the AE signals acquired at various machining conditions was extracted using AE RMS, spectral energy and peak amplitude. These features were able to well discriminate the machining condition, tool material, workpiece material, flushing pressure, current density, the initial surface roughness of the tool. Additionally, the AE signal features had a good and consistent correlation with the performance parameters, including material removal rate, surface roughness (Ra and Rq) and tool wear. The findings lay the groundwork to develop an effective, non-intrusive in-situ AE-monitoring system for performance and IEG condition in EDM.     

基于密闭爆发器试验的发射装药内弹道性能预估

为了预估发射装药的内弹道性能,建立了一种基于密闭爆发器试验检测发射药的静态燃烧性能参数进而预测其装药内弹道性能的方法,采用不同批次的单樟-5/7发射药进行了装药性能预估计算,并基于30 mm火炮对内弹道性能预估精度进行了试验验证。结果表明,采用所建立的基于密闭爆发器试验的发射装药内弹道性能预估方法计算获得的最大膛压为376.0 MPa,与试验测试的膛压平均值388.7 MPa的计算误差为3.27%;计算的炮口初速为1143.5 m/s,与试验测试的炮口初速平均值1156.3 m/s的计算误差为1.11%。所建立的基于密闭爆发器试验的发射装药内弹道性能预估方法具有较高的精度,可对发射药样品不同批次间的内弹道性能进行高效精确的预估,为长期贮存发射药使用寿命的判定及发射药产品的出厂校验提供了一种高效低成本的弹道性能评价方法。     

Assessment of spray quality from an external mix nozzle and its impact on SQL grinding performance

Spray quality is the critical factor which decides the efficacy of Small Quantity Lubrication (SQL) technology in a high specific energy involved machining process like grinding. Yet, the understanding about spray quality, the actual process mechanics and its effect on machining performance is inadequate. The present work is an attempt to establish a correlation between the spray input variables, quality of the spray and machining performance of SQL grinding through modelling and experiments. Using computational fluid dynamic techniques, the variation of droplet size, droplet velocity, number of droplets and heat transfer coefficient have been analysed at different input parameters and the computed trends have been verified and validated. CFD modelling of spray indicates that it is possible to produce aerosol medium with high heat dissipation ability at moderately high air pressure and low flow rate. It also shows that any increase in atomising air pressure favourably leads to notable increase in wetting area and also results in substantial enhancement in heat dissipation ability. Reduction of residual stress is thus remarkably good. On the other hand, grinding fluid flow rate, if increased, offers significantly better lubricity and reduces the grinding force which also reduces tensile residual stress. Short spell grinding test results are found to be in good agreement with CFD results.     

Geopolymer concrete-filled pultruded composite beams – Concrete mix design and application

The limited research on the geopolymer concrete mix design for targeting a specific strength is identified an obstacle for their effective design and wide use. In this paper, a mix design procedure has been proposed for fly-ash based geopolymer concrete and its use as infill hybrid composite beam is investigated. Then, the structural performance of geopolymer concrete filled hybrid composite beam is investigated to determine their possible application in civil infrastructure. Firstly, a detailed procedure of mix design for fly-ash based geopolymer concrete is presented. Secondly, three hybrid beams filled with geopolymer concrete were prepared and tested in a four-point bending setup to evaluate their flexural modulus and modulus of rupture. Numerical and analytical evaluation of the behaviour of hybrid beam were performed and results showed a good agreement with the experimental investigation. Thirdly, the suitability of the beam for a composite railway sleeper is evaluated and compared with existing timber and composite sleepers. Finally, the beams’ performance in a ballast railway track is analysed using Strand7 finite element simulation software and the results showed that the new concept of using geopolymer concrete as infill to pultruded composite section satisfied the stiffness and strength requirements for a railway sleeper.