我国电力工业和发电技术未来发展趋势

传统工业化走的是通过高消耗追求经济数量增长和先污染后治理的道路。介绍在传统工业化面临严重危机的背景下,可持续发展战略和新型工业化的兴起和特点,充分体现了未来发展的要求。在分析、总结世界能源发展的经验和规律的同时,对未来世界能源发展进行了宏观预测。以科学发展观为指导,采用未来学的方法,结合我国国情、发展现状和近中期发展目标,对本世纪特别是21世纪前20a我国电力工业和发电技术趋势进行了初步探讨,对国家能源安全等问题进行讨论。     

Simultaneous HPLC quantification of total cholesterol,tocopherols and β-carotene in Barrosã-PDO veal

A simple, rapid and sensitive procedure for the simultaneous determination of total cholesterol, tocopherols and β-carotene in meat is described. The method involves a direct saponification of the meat, a single n-hexane extraction and the analysis of the extracted compounds by normal-phase HPLC, using fluorescence (tocopherols) and UV–Vis photodiode array (cholesterol and β-carotene) detections in tandem. Rates of recovery of spiked meat samples were 93% for cholesterol, 83–86% for (α-, β- and -γ) tocopherols and 89% for β-carotene. Repeatabilities were high (CV < 6%) for all determined compounds, except for δ-tocopherol. This tocopherol, which is not usually present in meat, showed a much lower recovery percentage (73%) and repeatability (12.8%). This methodology was applied for the quantification of total cholesterol, tocopherols and β-carotene in three muscles (longissimus thoracis, longissimus lumborum and semitendinosus) of the Portuguese traditional Barrosã-PDO veal, obtained from autochthonous calves fed extensively during summer (with the least abundant green pastures) and slaughtered in early autumn (October). Barrosã-PDO veal showed median contents of total cholesterol (0.50–0.56 mg/g) and, depending on the analysed muscle, moderate to high contents of α-tocopherol (3.3–3.9 μg/g) and β-carotene (0.07–0.09 μg/g), suggesting an high sensorial and hygienic quality.     

对中国白酒业的忧思

中国白酒产业在20世纪80—90年代，曾经是“高税高利”产业。“利大于税”曾一度成为白酒产业的巨大经营优势。1994年以后，国家相继对白酒税收做了几次重大调整，至此，白酒产业已成“昨日黄花”，风光不再。2002年整体亏损面近1／3，亏损总额达8亿元。前50家企业年资产回报率大部分在3％—5％。相当一部分企业不足1％。因此。白酒产业呼唤“公平待遇”，希望国家为酒立法，“公平税赋”，让白酒业焕发新的生机，为国家“全面建设小康社会”做出新的贡献。(小雨)     

影响水利工程投资变化的实证分析

影响水利工程投资变化的因素可以分为市场因素、经济因素、设计因素、工期因素、不可预见因素等。选用南水北调东线江苏某段工程的投资变化数据,运用多元方差分析的方法就影响因素对不同工程投资变化的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,影响因素对不同工程的投资变化影响存在显著性差异,工程规模越大影响因素的影响程度就越大。据此提出在水利工程投资控制中必须优化价差管理方法,加强设计管理,减少设计变更,建立“静态投资、动态管理”体系来实现对工程投资变化的控制。     

低渗透储集层中油水层的地球化学综合判识——以济阳坳陷基山砂岩体为例

为了提高低渗透油藏油、水层识别的准确性，以济阳坳陷惠民凹陷基山砂岩体低渗透油藏为研究对象，探索以地球化学方法综合判识储集层流体性质的方法。以试油数据为参考，首先以热解定量方法初步评价，油层与油水同层、油水同层与水层的ST界限分别定为4．00mg／g及2．00mg／g；再以热解色谱定性方法将水层（或干层）与油层及油水同层明确区分；仍不能有效区分的油层及油水同层，则辅以热解参数表征的储集层变异系数进一步评价，变异系数高于0．3的为油水同层，低于0．3的为油层。具单一油源的多口井，可借助菲与二苯并噻吩（P／DBT）将油层及油水同层准确识别，P／DBT值大于12．5则为油层、小于等于12．5则为油水同层。对于相变较快，泥质薄层较多的低渗透油藏，利用热解参数S1／S2可评价储集层的真假隔层及油柱的纵向连通性。图4参17     

Composite scale modeling in the presence of censored data

A composite scale modeling approach can be used to combine several scales or variables into a single scale or variable. A typical application is to combine age and usage together to form a composite timescale model. The combined scale is expected to have better failure prediction capability than individual scales. Two typical models are the linear and multiplicative models. Their parameters are determined by minimizing the sample coefficient of variation of the composite scale. The minimum coefficient of variation is hard to apply in the presence of censored data. Another open issue is how to identify key variables when a number of variables are combined. This paper develops methods to handle these two issues. A numerical example is also included to illustrate the proposed methods.     

光电对抗装备发展趋势

通过未来战场对光电对抗装备的作战要求和装备现状分析，提出光电对抗装备发展趋势。     

工程变更及其管理

本文以京秦高速公路 (廊坊段 )为例介绍了在机电工程实施中针对工程变更采用的一套严密科学的工程变更管理程序。履约各方在执行程序过程中 ,职责分明 ,有效地保证了整个项目的顺利实施。     

全球化进程中建筑的趋同

对全球化进程中建筑趋同的原因进行了分析,探讨了全球化对中国建筑的影响,并对我国当代建筑创作问题提出了见解,以使人们对建筑全球化的趋同有一个较为清晰的认识。