快速二阶BP网络及其在城市用水量预测中的应用

针对BP网络收敛速度慢，易导致局部极小值的缺点，提出一种快速二阶BP网络，并以城市年用水量预测为例，与BP网络对比，结果表明，该方法加快了收敛速度，提出了结果的准确度。     

地震资料精细处理和解释在徐家围子油田的应用

以地震资料精细处理和解释在大庆长垣外围徐家围子油田开发中的成功应用为例，论述了地震地质综合描述技术在地质情况复杂的低、特低渗透油田开发中的应用效果。     

建立气井产能方程及计算地层压力的新方法

气井产量取决于井底流动压力，所以气井产能方程应该能够直接描述流压与产量的关系。文中基于气井二项式产能方程，提出了可以直接反映流压与产量之间关系的二元回归形式的产能方程模型。介绍了该模型的基本原理并进行了实例分析。该模型可以预测地层压力。     

Information systems effectiveness: research designs for causal inference

Abstract. This paper examines the capacity of the research designs of 37 empirical studies of information systems (IS) effectiveness to provide a basis for the development of theories about behaviour related to IS effectiveness. The power of each study to support causal inference was evaluated in terms of (a) its handling of the time dimension, (b) its ability to weigh differences and (c) its resistance to internal validity threats that pose alternative explanations for its reported findings. Of the reviewed studies, 29.7% could account for the time dimension, 32.4% employed a comparison group and 16.2% were not susceptible to any internal validity threats. Only 13.5% of the studies combined an accounting for the time dimension with the use of a comparison group. Of these, however, only 5.4% were also invulnerable to internal validity threats. The research designs of nearly 95% of these published studies were deficient in supporting causal inference. In those studies, suggestions that one variable was causally related to another variable could not be substantiated. Encouragement for the future capacity of IS effectiveness research to support causal inference was found in a trend towards the use of quasiexperimental designs. Recommendations are made regarding ways to increase the inferential capacity of research designs employed in the study of IS effectiveness.     

An exploration of the problems of using function points mark II

Abstract. This paper examines critically the function point analysis mark II (FPA mark II) method of measuring the functionality of information systems. Although the focus of the paper is on FPA mark II as devised by Symons, both this and the Albrecht method, from which the FPA mark II was developed, are briefly discussed. The published attempts to validate FPA mark II are reviewed and then the problems encountered by the author in applying the approach are described. The final part of the paper is concerned with the fit between SSADM and FPA mark II.     

地震数据油气预测中的属性优化方法

本文简单介绍了智能信息处理中新出现的RoughSet（RS）理论及属性选择方法，从双相介质地震波传播理论角度，探讨了地震数据油气预测属性优化原理，提出了基于RS理论的地震数据油气预测属性优化方法。实际应用表明；本方法速度快、易实现，而且在优选属性、最大程度地减少提取地震属性种数、提高分类正确率等方面，明显优于其它方法。本方法将成为地震数据油气预测的一种有效手段。     

炸药爆炸事故的综合后果模型

讨论爆炸冲击波对建筑物的破坏作用，比较冲击波破坏半径和爆炸火球引燃木材半径的相对大小，提出炸药地面爆炸后果预测模型。该模型同时考虑爆炸冲击波、火球热辐射、房屋倒塌、爆源间面积、爆源间防爆程度、人员和财产分布状部等因素对事故后果的影响。模拟计算结果与事故的实际损伤情况基本相符。     

Measurement and prediction of pressure drop in two-phase flow

Experimental data for air–water two-phase co-current flow in two different pipe diameters were used to test the prediction of pressure drop by a number of existing theories and correlations. Several models are shown to be useful for prediction, particularly with the stratified regimes which have proved difficult to handle in the past. The model suggested by Olujic proved to be of particular value.     

A NEW ALGORITHM FOR ADAPTIVE LATTICE FILTERAND ITS APPLICATION IN THE SPEECH LINEARPREDICTIVE SYNTHESIS

In this paper, an adaptive line spectral pair filter is derived from an adaptive lattice filter. A least-mean-square(LMS) type adaptive algorithm used to calculate directly the line spectral pair(LSP) coefficients on a stage-by-stage basis is presented. Experimental results show that the algorithm has higher convergence rate and lower misadjustment as compared with the other algorithms. The LSP coefficients calculated by the algorithm have been used to carry out speech linear predictive synthesis, resulting in better results than PARCOR coefficients.     

动态模糊神经网络在大坝变形预报中的应用

针对静态模糊神经网络的局限性,提出了在线动态建模的模糊神经网络方法.当新增样本进入训练集之后,根据新样本对模型的贡献大小,在已有模型的基础上进行动态修正,这样可以减少建模的计算时间.新方法实现了增加样本而矩阵阶数不增加,避免了矩阵求逆运算,理论上可以提高计算效率.实例表明动态模糊神经网络方法是可行的,可实现持久预报,具有较强的适应能力和较高的预报精度,可应用于在线实时变形预报及相关领域.